Climate Catastrophe

That is only true in a system where everyone consumes the same resources. It isn’t true for our planet.

At present, you can remove 10 American and replace them with 1000 Ethiopians, and you have simultaneously increased population and reduced resource demands.

To be fair, they are. Klopptimist’s original comment was this.

But this is why I subscribe to the view that arguing for population control (as many do) is racist, if understandably and unintentionally so on the part of those who support it.

Population growth is already slowing in most parts of the world. There is a growing number of analysts who predict that by current trends global population will top out at between 8-9bn at around 2040, before beginning to sharply decline. A birth rate of 2.1 per woman is necessary to sustain population at current rates, and the rate is below this in most places outside Africa, and even in African its only significantly higher than this outside rural areas.

Reducing global population is already happening. 10bn people looks increasingly unlikely. There are not many parts of the world left where you can target specific policies to reduce population.

The population as driver for climate catastrophe argument was popularised in Paul Ehlrich’s book ‘The Population Bomb’ and his ideas have persisted today. Unfortunately he was guilty of some gross misunderstandings, lazy assumptions and downright racism. He wrote from his explorations of third world cities, describing their slums, begging, chaos, and pollution as a problem of over population. Unfortunately the cities he was describing were less populous that western cities like London, a Paris and New York, and the concept he was experiencing was actually poverty.

When Klopptimist’s says that reducing global population is the only solution (his slightly unfortunate phrase), it’s wrong, more than a little racist (because it’s an idea rooted in the stereotyped notions of foreign, often brown, people having loads of babies, and the only places where this is remotely true are rural populations of developing world nations who are absolutely not the problem here), and it would have the opposite effect that Klopptimist’s imagines.

The only way to reduce populations is through economic development, and through economic development (ie financial security, education, and cultural enrichment) birth rates fall. But those lifestyles come with a huge increase in consumption, resource use and carbon emissions. Any efforts to reduce population. Could easily result in a smaller global population emitting more CO2 than ever.

Population is in many ways a red herring. Poorer countries are pursuing economic development regardless of our approval or disapproval. Birth rates are falling naturally. The onus is on us to ensure that this development does not follow the resource intensive blueprint that we have laid down.

If every developing nation sees it as their right to have an fossil fuel powered development curve, then we are toast. And we can’t argue they should just stop, as we are the beneficiaries of 250 years of fossil fuel based development (often plundered from the developing world anyway). We need to sort our own economies first and foremost and provide a better template (with patents and copyright waived) for developing world nations for follow. Or provide them with the investment to develop new technologies themselves.

So let’s stop going on about population. It isn’t a problem and it’s just a convenient way of pushing a problem entirely of our making onto poor people who nothing to do with it. We need to be better than this.

4 Likes

It is true. What you’ve done is removed certain individuals so you’re immediately arguing a different point from that which is being made. Adding a human being (regardless where) creates an additional drain on resources. Using the culling of a certain group of people just to counter that basic point is Orwellian.

Notably in your example you overlook the fact that in that scenario you will have immediately increased demands for finite resources on a population already severely under-resourced. So whilst your scenario may place less of a drain on the planet’s finite resources ( :+1:) you have simultaneously reduced the life expectancies of Ethiopians ( :-1:).

1 Like

Too right!

… and catholics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWWAC5ZMKeM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKFa6sVH_1k

1 Like

The population of America is already falling. The birth rate is about 1.5 from memory. I’m not culling anyone.

The birth rate in Ethiopia is about 6.

That’s the real world, and unless we are willing to frame this conversation in the real world, there is no point.

Making points about how an addition Ethiopian technically increases the drain on the Earth’s is really flippant. It’s like saying throwing a glass of water in the ocean contributes to flooding.

Yes, this is obviously true. I am, if it needs explaining, simplifying things to make the point about the global context.

3 Likes

Which is why population control needs to be combined with a more equal distribution of the world’s finite resources. It’s the opposite of racist to encourage developing countries to take one particular step that will improve their own circumstances and help preserve lives, whilst also taking steps to redistribute wealth and resources so that their standard of living is raised from simultaneous steps being taken outside and within.

You do not improve the life chances of populations of developing countries by actively discouraging measures of population control (with suggestions of racism), you worsen them. Perhaps reflect on that.

2 Likes

No it doesn’t

Population Control does not need to be part of the discussion. It’s irrelevant. The only function population control has in this context is to suggest that all these pesky uncivilised people are having too many babies, and it’s up to us to tell them to stop.

A more equal distribution of the worlds resources. That’s it. You don’t need to go any further than that. That sorts the problem, without

It is racist to suggest that Climate Change - a problem created by ‘The West’ and our resource intensive lifestyles - is somehow the fault of the scant places on Earth today where population rates are increase (mostly just Africa).

We can have have a conversation about the impacts of high birth rates on their own, but this was about climate change.

I’m not discouraging anything. I’m just saying it (Population) isn’t part of the conversation on climate change, and the only reason it gets brought up at all is when relatively affluent people in the developed world want to pretend to themselves that their high carbon lifestyles are not the biggest reason why the world is fucked.

Developing world nations are going to develop regardless of whether we want them to or not. And their birth rates will fall as a natural consequence

Our task is to help, finance and support them to ensure that development is not the same high carbon catastrophe that ours has been.

2 Likes

Just a query.

How do we help those developing nations to move away from a policy whereby they absolutely hammer carbon heavy processes to play catch up.

It feels a double edged sword whereby more advanced nations rightly move towards carbon neutral (too slowly I might add) but then developing nations basically just fill the void created by others reducing their footprints.

By actually helping them. Give them a hand. Which would mean changing our economic concepts entirely. i.e not feeling that we need to protect what we have, putting greed aside you know a completely different system and outlook. It’s just not going to happen in my lifetime though china might own everything (at least in Europe) in that time (and they are one of the biggest potential polluters with their system as it is).

EDIT: Mascott touched on this when he mentionned 'openning up licences to developing countries so that they can actually use new technology.

2 Likes

It’s basically money. It’s why the climate talks have always struggled.

The Developed World position is Hey guys. We’re in a mess here and we all need to do our bit. Let’s all agree to cut our emissions and stick to a 2 degree (Paris revised this to 1.5) temperature rise.

The Developing World position is Hang on. You lot have got very, very rich pumping carbon in the air for 250 years. Don’t tell us we’re not entitled to do the same.

It basically comes down to a transfer of money and technology from rich nations to poor nations, to allow them to skip the burning fossil fuels bit and jump straight to the green development bit.

2 Likes

That’s my point I guess. It’s just not going to happen without a fundamental shift, and a quick one. But no one is going to take that step.

1 Like

Not without a fight that’s for sure and usually the rich win those fights so I question if ever. Very sad!

Yes, one of many, many steps that developed countries can take to level up. But it would still take time because it will still require huge amounts of institutional and infrastructure changes, particularly regarding education, health, diversifying the industries, moving away from ‘traditional’ (often due to legacies of colonialism) work, all whilst preserving and respecting cultural norms. But then you step back and you realise that what is the objective here? Is this not western colonialism by another name?

The biggest differences you can make to developing nations, with the most immediate impact, are population control, healthcare, and educating women. Manage the finite resources, preserve life, reduce poverty.

The reliance a developing economy places on fossil fuels in order to grow then has the better chance of being reduced provided that alongside those steps cleaner energy technology is freely provided by developed countries so that developing countries do not have to go through an industrial revolution in the way that we did.

1 Like

That’s nice. What would you do about climate change though?

(I see you’re replying as I edited this. I made the edit, because I think you’re talking about development which is not the same conversations as climate change)

The obvious measures would be education regarding family planning, providing good education to children to 16, increasing wages and investing into agriculture with subsidies and technology.

[I can see your edit so will carry on…]

These two issues are inter-linked (poverty and climate change).

It is essential that education regarding how best to use the land for agricultural purposes (to increase the yield from local resources), investment into agriculture, irrigation etc, runs alongside investing into renewable energies (solar being particularly beneficial for many developing countries, but also harnessing wind energy, tidal energy etc).

You cannot skip industrial revolution to progress towards a greener planet without improving the local population’s life chances with improved family planning, education for women and healthcare, because then the resource that you’re lacking to allow that economy to prosper is a human one and any poverty divide is exacerbated.

This article is pretty good, and finds something of a mid point between us. The author acknowledges that population is a problem but rather than advocate for ‘population control’ there are better ways to address this, and more powerful argument starters that ‘shouldn’t we try and deal with population’.

The history of the population question within the environment debate does, I’m afraid, have a legacy of casual racism. As the author notes, it is more often than not, certain people who need to have their population’s controlled.

My own position goes a bit further, and I’d ask why mention population at all? It just doesn’t seem relevant. It’s only really relevant if people from within large birth rate communities retain those high birth rates when transitioning to a more economically developed (and therefore more resource intensive) societies. And from experience they don’t tend to.

Societies that really need to reduce their climate emissions - developed or rapidly developing nations - already have falling birth rates - they don’t need an intervention. The countries or communities that do have high birth rates aren’t the problem.

1 Like

I don’t know about mid-point, this article says exactly what I’m saying. It confirms that population control is needed to tackle climate change and that the way to address it is in the ways that I set out. Although I went into it with perhaps a bit more detail.

I wish I’d seen the article myself, in fact, it would have saved me the bother of typing out my posts today!

Yep Fertility rates (children per woman) across the world are in most cases rapidly declining. Niger, the country with the highest fertility rate, is falling by 1.3% each year. Scientists are predicting the world’s population to peak between 2064 and 2100 at around 9.4-9.8 billion, with many developed countries predicted to halve their populations by the end of the century. Right now the question must be how we all change our ways to impact less on the environment, but some time in the future the most important question will be how economies can cope with the social support of a heavily ageing population, then eventually how we can re-stimulate population growth in developed nations.

It doesn’t, but you’re welcome anyway

It’s fascinating to me that you can read an article where the central point is don’t talk about population - talk about educating girls and curtailing the excesses of the wealthy instead - and conclude that he is advocating ‘population control’

2 Likes

You’ll need to re-read what I’ve been saying then. Or I could take the time to compare extracts from this article to what I’ve said today…but then people can always just read it and see for themselves.

1 Like

From the article:

Math confirms that population is indeed a factor in environmental impact

"The UN expects over half the growth out to 2100 to be concentrated in just nine countries, listed here in order of their expected contribution:

India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda, and Indonesia.

Most of those people will be fairly poor (by Western standards, though hopefully less so than their forbearers), which means their per-capita consumption of resources will be fairly low. Nonetheless, cumulatively, adding 2.3 billion people by 2050 amounts to enormous additional resource use and pollution (including greenhouse gases)."

Mitigating some substantial percentage of that population growth would be one way to better environmental conditions in 2050. It would also have more impact than virtually any other climate policy. (More on that later.)

He explicitly acknowledges, as I have set out, that population growth is something that needs to be controlled as a measure in tackling climate change. However, what he does is say that you address that by addressing it obliquely, taking measures that focus on issues that have a direct impact on controlling population growth without speaking the words…“we need to control your birth rate”. Coincidentally, the measures he then identifies are the same ones that I set out earlier. It’s a question of semantics rather than of a difference in what needs to be done to address poverty and climate change…

He says,

"However. That human numbers are, axiomatically, part of the story of human impact does not mean that human numbers have to take center stage. Talking about population growth is morally and politically fraught, but the best ways of tackling it (like, say, educating girls) don’t necessitate talking about it at all.

Tackling population growth can be done without the enormous, unnecessary risks involved in talking about population growth."

Essentially, the first rule of tackling population growth is we don’t talk about tackling population growth. Even though that’s what we’re doing.