Another state blocking Trump. Now that Maine has done it, I think a lot of the NE states, who do tend to be more democrate leaning will look to block him as well
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Unfortunately I think the Supreme Court will take the case and protect him, erroneously saying the people should decide at the next election.
If they do that, the Guardian piece above is spot on - the doctrines of originality and textualism, in how the Constitution is interpreted, will be shot to pieces, and for the Republicans, that has been their modus operandi for a generation in terms of interpreting and applying the Constitution.
Trump is giving them headaches aplenty.
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It is somewhat interesting that the two states that have moved on this are ones where the electoral college votes could be said to be in play. Maine is close to unique in splitting votes, so Trump got one vote there in 2020. He lost handily in Colorado (-15 or so), but 2016 and 2012 were closer, and Bush Jr won Colorado in 2004.
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I live in the Southern electoral district of Maine but much of my work in the North of the state - both civilian and military. It’s like two different worlds. I get on with everyone, majority of people are nice no matter what their underlying politics but I try and steer away from those conversations.
Get North of Waterville and suddenly everything and anything is the Democrats fault while the Republicans are good hard-working salt-of-the-earth guys who want the best for our families. Oh and they don’t like Trans people - that’s a very divisive issue for them.
I haven’t spoken with anyone about the ban in Maine yet but I imagine I am currently working alongside some very angry Airmen.
And yes I do think the Supreme Court will overturn the decisions. Both because the majority of the court is loyal to Trump and also because they will lean on the idea that it’s up to the voters to decide. I do think it’s probably better for the country if he loses in an election rather is banned from the election altogether. Yes we dice with him getting into power but I fear the violent repercussions he and his supporters would bring to this country if he is disallowed from running.
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What a sorry state of affairs. Republicans can now no longer even talk about slavery for fear of alienating their … erm racist … base.
Will also happen if he loses the election as we have seen.
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That is true but I do think the anger will be less widespread - although those who are totally pilled will obviously still engage in their terrorism.
I would agree, that it has to play out with him in play. However, I’m not sure whether there will be any more or less violence with him in play or not. If he gets in there will be years emboldened instances of violence, if he doesn’t get in there will be violence and if he’s not in play there will be violence.
Ultimately it feels like there will be some violence but will be limited as no matter how angry people seem - most (relatively) normal working people will not go to bat for a scheming power hungry fat orange man.
You have to do the right thing, regardless of the possible threat of violence.
If a baying mob stops leaders from doing the right thing, then all bets are off and there is no rule of law. Always always always do the right thing, then the consequences will be what they will be.
As it happens, with 400M+ guns swishing around, and 30k+ gun deaths a year regardless of what is happening politically, this is a violent nation no matter what.
Trump needs to be dealt with according to the full extend of the law. He has numerous charges hanging over him in multiple cases. Unfortunately the wheels of justice move slowly, so he has been able to avoid meaningful punishment and it will probably continue that way.
Right now it feels like him winning the Presidency is his best bet for avoiding jail. Having some states (so far Colorado and Maine, but more to come) exclude him from the ballot gives him huge peril. It seems a clear case, as he did incite a riotous insurrection and he did his utmost to prevent the transfer of power, and people lost their lives.
This one is likely going to the Supreme Court, and I expect them to protect Trump and allow him to stand for the Presidential election, assuming he wins the Republican nomination.
At that point it will underscore the sense that we have an illegitimate Supreme Court backing an illegitimate Presidential candidate, and the sense of living in a country with the rule of law will be gone.
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I think it’s a lot more than that. The GOP ran on the age thing, with it being a common perception among MAGAtics that he was incapacitated an unable to leave his basement and so a vote for him was a vote for Kamala, or even Obama’s third term. Yet Biden still won handily. His popularity then fell way before this election cycle started whereas if they were temporally aligned you might put that down to people who voted for him in 2016 being now concerned about his age 4 years later. But while that is real, I dont think it’s enough to explain his current numbers so there has to be more going on. This is just a smattering of thoughts from my head…
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The coverage of Afghanistan. This was the time his approval ratings first fell meaningfully and he never got back to where he was pre-exit. The contrast between how the exit was actually managed and how the press responded to it was enormous. They were committed from the first second to cover it as “Biden’s Katrina”, because they only have about 3 narratives they have to shoe horn every story into, and it was their opportunity to show people they werent scared to stick it to a Democratic party president because they are “real journalists”. At no point was the narrative ever rewritten, even after it was clear that the images we saw initially were not representative of the overall picture, and so now it’s just baked in that he oversaw a shambles in that operation
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I am a huge believer that people interpret the news in the context of whatever vibes are present in the zeitgeist. Textbook good economic news in a period of bad vibes about the economy = turning over everything in the data to find the reason this is actually bad for Biden (Hello, Pitchbot). The Afghanistan coverage was the beginning of the bad administration vibes everything in the subsequent 3 years has been viewed through.
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Afghanistan was also the first indication of the discrepancy between the reality and the way the MSM would cover the Biden administration. As alluded to above, the economy has been one big area where this happened. There has been so much doom mongering over the economy through his tenure that the majority of Americans believe we have actually lived through a recession. He is getting the blame for inflation, despite the fact that it’s been a global issue (indicating not caused by things under the control of the US president), largely related to the double whammy of the pandemic and Ukraine (with opportunistic profiteering accompanying that). So much had been written about the conventional wisdom of the economic stimulus necessitating inflation and subsequent recession, that when the inflation came too few people were willing to look anywhere else for causes. And then seemed to almost wish us into a recessions and when that didn’t happen just act like we’ve had one anyway. Yes cost of living has gone up, but on average at least wages have gone up more. The issue is psychologically these two things are viewed differently. I know the increased of milk and eggs has nothing to do with me and is all market forces. But I view my big salary increase as being solely because I earned it and completely distant from the largely economy. This beyond, or maybe in conjunction with the overall vibe that Biden is overseeing a bad economy, is behind a lot of the negativity.
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Dems inherent mistaken view that people give a shit about policy. They have gone about their business thinking they can stay above the nonsense and then celebrate the incredible legislative success he’s had, but no one gives a shit. There may be small bumps in positivity at the time big bills are signed, but you dont get credit from voters for those things until they experience them in their lives. And sometimes not even then. Legislative wins and good policy is important for a functioning country, but it isnt fuel to use to run a reelection bid. For that you need a story, and you can use your legislation as the basis of your story, but most good politicians can tell the story even without the legislation. What you absolutely cannot do is think the legislation can replace the story. Up until now they have not put that much effort into telling a story about what these successes mean for people, and the admin has not had many reliable surrogates in the party doing it for them. I hope from the admin’s perspective that is a tactic (not wanting to spend time on running this early) and not a misreading of the situation.
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The online left. People who may have at one time reluctantly supported him have spent the last 4 years shitting on everything he has done for it not being enough. They say they voted for him because Trump wants to be a dictator yet seemingly expect the president they voted for to act like one and ignore the congress and courts. These people have been poisoning the discourse as much as the maga people have. And even if you dont directly engage with it, it seeps into the discourse in ways that people internalize in a second hand way.
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The massively increased polarization in recent years means poll numbers and approval ratings dont mean what they meant in the past and pundits have not yet recalibrated their antennas to this reality. I think we are a generation away from a president being able to govern with a 50% approval rating again, but in this era it also means there are MANY people who fail to give the president their approval in those polls who will absolutely give them their vote when put up against the alternative.
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To the point above, there has been a relative absence of Trump. Sure his trials etc are being covered, but it’s not the same as Trump being front and center being awful every day. It has taken away the contrast that people use to realize how comparatively attractive Biden was an alternative. Biden has a saying he is famous for, compare me to the alternative not the almighty, and in the absence of Trump he is being compared to the latter. There will come a point, very soon, the he is no longer viewed in isolation, but as the alternative to whatever freakshow is happening in the GOP. The more direct that comparison is the more the dynamic will swing back to 2020 and a lot of the currently perceived negatives will start to dissipate
…and then I saw his phone and laughed in his face saying I could fix it for him, but fuck him. 
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The Afghanistan debacle was undoubtedly the starting gun for the Biden bashing , but whether anyone even remembers that now , or still holds it against him , I very much doubt.
With regards to the press , how is it that the left-leaning mainstream media in the US subjugates itself to the right , repeats its talking points and amplifies its narrative ? I just don’t get that at all.
I think you make a good point about poll numbers. In today’s environment getting a thumbs up from a majority of voters seems like wishful thinking and kinda makes overall approval ratings meaningless. (Nevertheless what should give the Dems pause for thought are the polls showing anyone but Trump beating Biden by an even wider margin.)
I still maintain however that Biden’s greatest handicap is his age and the perception of him by a large majority of Americans that he’s not upto another four years in the job. Those polls from the summer told the story ; Despite their small difference in age , 77% consider Biden too old while only 51% say the same about Trump. (Across all voters)
So , like you say , we’re banking on the electorate taking fright at the thought of just what another Trump presidency would mean when faced with a binary choice. I only wish I had more faith in them.
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I wonder how the dynamic will develop once running mates are confirmed?
It seems for Trump it’s about placating/bringing in a voting block and for Biden about bringing in some one who can take the reigns… almost feels like the real game at the moment.
At that point any pretence of legalism behind this supreme court will be gone. It’s been a disaster for more than a generation - other Supreme/High court justices have been known to laugh at the appalling partisan reasoning - but this may set the key pillar of the separation of powers toppling. Once that is accepted, a US coup seems increasingly likely.
They don’t have to. The point is once a narrative is developed it becomes the context through which the majority of people internalize everything else they hear. 3 years later they dont need to remember why they think the administration is incompetent they just know it is. In fact, seeing as this keeps being reinforced every time they hear anything and interpret it through the incompetence prism if you asked them why they think that they would be confused given it was so supposedly self evident. See any conversation on here about decisions we dont get.
And that is where the power of the age thing comes from. Once you’ve decided the administration is incompetent that becomes an easy explanation to pull for why and the two narratives become mutually reinforcing.
The US is so fucked.
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I read this last night and my very first thought was…is the US too big to fail?
I don’t mean that in some alarmist, the sky is falling, Trump will bring about the end of humanity way…more just wondering out loud what the end point is when over one-third of a body politic don’t believe that body actually works anymore.
I guess when push really comes to shove almost everyone will play their part and keep the ball rolling, it’s very easy to spout nonsense when you’re not faced with the actual collapse of your nation. But I do wonder how easy it would be to push it past a point of no return.
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They believe it works, but only when they win.
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watching the uber-elite/rich Americans buying up land in the Aloha state, making me think it’s time to vacate the city in the next 5-10. Costa Rica is nice, I hear.
Look at these right track/wrong track numbers. This is a 20 year period covering 4 presidents in which the majority think wer’e on the wrong track. Supporting what I said a few posts up, this tells me that with our current level of polarization, a 60% wrong track score for a first term president is actually a winning number.
But Biden has the worst numbers ever. Worse than Bush in '08