Reports out of DC that Trump is going to start his trade war with much of the rest of the world today.
This is not final, but is being credibly reported as being what the House GOP are circling around
$4.5T in tax cutsā¦do not EVER take seriously their concerns about fiscal responsibility again.
Also, yesterday was the second day in a row the AP was barred from the Oval Office for the reason of them choosing not to adopt Trumpās change to the name of the Gulf of Mexico.
Such a free speech warrior.
I donāt think theyāve been fiscally responsible since before I was born.
Thereās a similar tweet from Musk by all accounts.
Just more noise to justify cutting the crap out of everything.
Iām willing to bet there will be no arrests
Fortunately, that wonāt be at all inflationary
How much risk do people feel there is Trump will collapse the economy?
I came across something the other day where the significant cuts could crash inflation, interest rates too and then youāre possibly into QE.
Like others I am not an economist.
The cuts to government spending are going to have a negative effect on aggregate demand, but per Limiescouseās posts above, the vast majority of the cuts are being turned into tax cuts. So there will be a corresponding positive effect on aggregate demand, though some severe distributional effects. Combined with the inflationary effects from tariffs, I donāt think inflation is going anywhere. In the near term, everything the Federal Reserve is looking at is pointing at the need to reduce money supply by raising interest rates. Despite the trappings of ācutsā, the proposal is an aggressive expansionary fiscal policy absolutely not in line with that - it doesnāt really very much in the aggregate whether or not the government is spending the money or the private sector is. Either way, the US government is borrowing loads of money.
Something akin to quantitative easing may end up being necessary simply to clear the Treasury auctions, and maybe the US can get away with that as the default reserve currency. Any other currency (i.e. Sterling) would see that translate nearly immediately into currency devaluation.
To the ācollapseā question, I think there are increasing signs pointing to a US recession, probably global. The sequence is different, but the policy mix is not that different from 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley Act. Perhaps the crash will follow.
Exactly, but no matter how many times they blow up the budget to give billionaires big tax breaks their concerns about fiscal responsibility are credulously received by the press, the general public, and even the Dems.
This isnt even one of those cases where we can point to Trump as a new type of Republican who shouldnt be tarred with what the older party did. He blew up the budget in his first term as well even before covid.
Kennedy confirmed. But Tulsi Gabbard was worse, so whatever.
Cheers.
It had crossed my mind that Trump was going to go full lettuce and have his buddies short on the dollar, stocks, whatever for quick wins at the expense of everyone else.
Ohio confirmed their first human case of bird flu yesterday. Thoughts and prayers
Road kill cures all?
So final two nails (Gabbard and Kennedy (a black stain on his family name)) go into the proverbial coffin.
Itās like Captain Planetās rogues gallery!
How serious could the bird flu thing get? Could it become a pandemic and kill many people like covid? Or is the scope much smaller?
Asking for a friend, as Ohio is just one state overā¦
Ignoring the economic impact of it on the chicken industry, from a PH perspective you tend to always sound alarmist when raising concern about a new flu like this starting to spread among humans. Most of them turn out to not be any more than a normal flu. But they have the potential to be. And in this āit is JUST the fluā era the upside risk for an emerging issue like this is particularly bad.