Money, Investments and the Economy

Was obviously full madness (and still is) to believe people are going to flock to and spend meaningful time in the Metaverse. To me was sign of the top. The other big problem here is Zuckerberg having veto-proof control of the company through his special class shares.

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If you arenā€™t familiar with Jim Cramer, he has an interesting life story. Majored in journalism, lived out of his car for a while as an underpaid journalist, got a job at Goldman and rose through the ranks, ran his own hedge fund in the 90s, then moved to be a pundit. Heā€™s wrapped a bit tight and might even need meds. Here is my favorite Jim Cramer moment.

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I was worked with a trading desk back then, got the email alerts - I remember seeing the Bear Stearns no-trade alert and thinking the music must be about to stop. I donā€™t think his policy prescription for August 2007 was right, but he was absolutely correct about how that was the unacknowledged beginning of a crisis.

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I get the impression that the UKā€™s national finances are starting to resemble that of its population. There are no more savings that can be made, no economies to be had and no cloth to cut without going naked.

I donā€™t think the country can cope with any more economic shocks.

More good news for gilts. It seems the suggestion of austerity is at least driving them lower. Euro zone inflation 10% today. Yet ECB rate is still below 2%. All euro zone sovereigns are below 5%. Thatā€™s a bigger spread than in the U.S. Globally, it seems, bond investors continue to bet on transitory inflation.

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There are things that can be done as it is often about the narrative, but I think from seeing your posts on here that you already know that and your statement is more a comment on this governmentā€™s approach rather than government more generally.

For example, the governmentā€™s targets for matching spending (cuts)/ revenues are based on I think a 3 year window. There is nothing to stop the Government backing that out to a 5 year window which would reduce their figure for cuts (or tax increases needed) per year.

Secondly, a growing proportion of the governmentā€™s debt is in inflation linked gilts, so getting inflation to fall should reduce this segment of debt interest quickly. Obviously the elephant in the room is energy costs - if that were to fall, then that could help substantially. Shipping costs are returning to normal, and the impact from currency swings might also move back.

The proportion of debt that is not index linked will be falling in value real terms, some of it quite sharply, as the interest is paid in fixed amounts while the governments revenues will be increasing much faster due to the impact of inflation and the likelyhood that the government will not be adjusting tax thresholds. This should open the way for further borrowing to invest in infrastructure if the government was so inclined.

I think taxes account for about 33% of GDP while much of the developed world itā€™s around 40% - which suggests medium to long term we can increase this by 3-4% without it having a negative impact on the perceptions of businesses looking to invest here (Much of the research Iā€™ve seen quoted recently indicates this isnā€™t really a factor anyway) . However, I agree a conservative government facing an election is unlikely to want to raise taxes significantly either now or signal them as coming in after the next election when the expected recession is likely to have ended.

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I can see someone in his position/background who watches the sleaze of Wall Street executives raking huge amounts of money off the backs of Joe and Sue Homeowner who just lost their houseā€¦ losing his shit is totally justified.

What happened in 2008 was a fucking travesty. the Rich got Rich and the poor paid for their bailouts.

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He was a mouthpiece though for those excesses and the short term perspectives. He received considerable backlash in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis for that reason, and its difficult to see any of his shows of emotion like this as anything but an act to provide cover for any new criticism of his positions that led people to ruin.

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I would never take financial advice from someone on CNN.

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He is not with CNN, but point taken - neither would I. But that is who you are sympathizing with. He is part of the sleaze you can imagine him being upset about.

An independent financial advisor getting angry at the way the system take advantage of the average investor with fake promises, sure I understand that. But Cramer is a guy who makes millions a year for turning financial analysis into entertainment with far more focus on the entertainment than the quality of or risk included in the advice. People literally live or die on the basis of his advice and he gets his $5m a year regardless.

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He was advocating for more soft money earlier to allow the same disastrous mispricing of risk to continue without consequence for those who knew full well what they had been doing.

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the sandlot wtf GIF

https://twitter.com/yo/status/1587469102569889792?s=20&t=LzU489nLik4xNK-WrDVwXA

I mentioned something probably about a year ago about Thiel completely removing himself from Facebook. That was viewed by many as a marker of peak facebook being over. Thiel wont necessarily be part of what comes next, especially as he seems wrapped up in Elonā€™s Twitter shit, but it was an indication heā€™d felt heā€™d ridden that one as far as it could go.

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