Big game for us today, because if we get through that round with no one really having taken the opportunity to close the gap, Jota’s goal ends up being a significant step toward the title.
It was clear six weeks ago this was not going to be one of those processional seasons where the winner gets 100 points and has the title sewn up in early March. We just aren’t that good. I would suggest that to the end of December, we were not as good as our points tally. We had ridden good defence and very timely goals to many of those wins, which could easily have been draws. In that sense, maybe we are regressing to the mean to some degree right now, though it is our defence that has been more problematic this month.
That said, this is a good team, with a lot of veteran leadership. I have every confidence that they are aware of and quite frustrated by this patch. Forest was an unusual match, because they are at least nominally a title contender, a solid team chasing LFC, and played defensively at home challenging us to break them down. The mathematics of that aren’t going to hold up, contenders are going to need to take 3 points from us to close the gap at some point. That is likely to be a much tougher proposition than getting one goal and hanging on.
I don’t know about City, but I had this feeling for our 2019-20 season. Not to take anything away from that team, and the 110 of 114 points run they had at one point, but many of those games were won by luck not so much sheer dominance (although there was plenty of dominance).
I think the biggest difference between then and now for me is the feeling that the team we have is still relatively young and inexperienced (although I’m not sure how true that really is in actual numbers).
I think Arne says the right words in pre- and post-match press conferences, but it’s the implementing that which will be a massive challenge.
Football is a game of very fine margins. Often the difference between the teams is a single goal and that can often be from a fluke deflection or momentary lack of concentration. It’s quite possible that a game won by a fine margin could also be one that would have been won at a canter had incidents gone our way.
I think this is a key point. We aren’t the team that matched Man City stride for stride - we have some pretty obvious issues in the squad such as the need for a new LB - that weren’t there in 2019. The good news is that of all the flawed “top” teams we have easily been the best through 20 games and there is no Man City behemoth getting in the upper 90s to 100+ points to catch.
The other aspect is that the middle of the league has improved substantially with lots of very well run clubs suddenly coming together with a good squad of well coached players, making sensible signings and taking points off everyone.
It’s been a really good season for the PL so far and nothing I’ve seen from us or anyone else would suggest that someone is about to go and string together 10 win - it just isn’t going to happen.
The points you make - I have a Viber group with two friends who are Liverpool fans and I’ve genuinely been writing almost the same things there since a bit before the Man United match. That said, my exact words were a bit less measured like yours and a bit more… Doom and gloom? Especially the part about regressing to mean.
After all, I still look at this group as the one that ran out of steam last season and kind of gave up on Klopp in the end, so I should be forgiven for not placing too much faith in them. Also, Robbo looks shot, Nunez is not a threat even in the slightest, Jota is injury-prone, Trent is still blowing hot and cold… Forgive me for being a doubter.
I’ve seen Slot being called a “lucky general” on these boards, though it wasn’t a comment made as criticism - but I, too, got the impression that he got lucky with some things like Everton game getting postponed in the middle of an injury crisis (not that they’ll surely be beaten in the postponed fixture but still…).
I’m placing a lot of hope in the chasing pack dropping points, I’m tired of seasons where you drop points in consecutive games and you’re already out of title race because Man City are steamrollering the rest of the league.
This just isn’t looking like one of those seasons. We are keeping a points pace that would put a side to the title in almost every season prior to 17/18. Arsenal could win every game they have left and finish at 94, a great season until 17/18. City cannot finish on a total above 86. Back in the day, that too was enough to win titles.
None of that means anything is guaranteed, or even close. But every win shortens the runway for the chasing sides. At some point, that means they cannot play the way Forest did (unless we give them a stupid early goal the way we did against Forest), because they must win, not LFC. That May 10 at Anfield could easily be a must-win for Arsenal to keep the race going if we keep running close with them. That is just not a bad situation, think of how many times Rafa must have dreamed of getting to a match like that.
Chelsea have supposedly cancelled Challobah’s loan with Palace to recall him. With the way they forced him out of the club in the first place that sort of move really shouldn’t be allowed
The officiating of Arsenal’s corner kicks is a complete joke. There wasn’t even any disguise there - Gabriel just runs full speed into the Spurs defender then uses two hands to push his shoulders down and help his jump. Referee just looks at it.