Russian War Crimes (Part 1)

[Magnus]

@Sithbare

Some ground realities.

1. To ostensibly replace russian oil / gas imports , The EU would likely have to go to OPEC for their requirements. That would lead to an increase in prices for limited resources.
2. The main objective for any country is firstly to secure and provide resources for their population. That you would agree is paramount
3. While the rich EU have the advantage of leveraging favourable deals from suppliers , countries like India do not have the same finances.
4. If the oil produced by OPEC is diverted to other countries , what does it mean for Indias energy security ?
5. This isnt so much about India supporting Russia. This is about ground realities. For example , sanctions were imposed on Iran which led to India needing to procure Oil/Gas from other countries , the price of fuel etc in India rose up very high after this. Now the same sanctions on Iran are lifted …
6. Why werent these sanctions kept when Russia invaded Crimea ?

Its easy to give a blanket statement and stay in the comfort of your house , in admittedly very comfortable weather and keep publicizing these comments without knowing or ignoring the ground realities

1. Yes, this is what is happening now. Negotiations already underway with the Emirates. Lots of deals that I won’t like will have to be made because it is a situation in extremis.

2. Agree.

3. This is true. I can only agree and I think I know now without reading the rest of the bullet points where this is going.

4. I think gas is the main issue far more than oil, but fair enough. I note that India imports currently 2 percent of oil from Russia. There is more than enough oil though. We won’t see significant oil shortages yet, and if we do, OPEC can increase supplies.

5. The sanctions on Iran are lifted not only because of this situation with Russia and Ukraine but because of the Nuclear negotiations. The sanctions on Iran were and are, also completely different. Iran is not waging agressive imperial war against a neighbour, at all. I don’t see this as a valid comparison. What Russia is doing is unique and it is territorial conquest. It is the most basic of the Do Nots in International Law.

6. See Germany 1930’s. Countries were willing to go far to prevent break down in relations and trade, as well as to keep the peace and avert the outbreak of destructive war. It is the same issue, no one in Western Europe nor the United States listened to eastern european countries, no one thought Russia would launch a full scale invasion. You are wrong though, sanctions were imposed on the Russian Federation after Crimea. Just not very forceful ones, because sanctions are as you know damaging to everyone and as stated, no one thought Russia would go further than Crimea and establishing a frozen conflict in Donbas to prevent Ukrainian recovery and integration with the West. I remember well, because I followed events in Ukraine and also, personally here in Norway, the Norwegian krone dropped and the global oil price dropped due to those sanctions back in 2014. Those sanctions are still in effect by the way. However, these sanctions are obviously another ball game, this is a serious attempt to dramatically change Russia’s calculus for the future and act as a very strong deterrent to further imperial adventures in that it shows the will to sacrifice which have surprise Russia to say the least.

I still blame India for not condemning Russia. Nothing you said above will alter that. Russia needs India, India could go much further and stop protecting Russia. Russia today is desperate for partners. I believe there is no room for neutrality in this conflict, it is far too significant. If one is neutral, one accepts what Russia is doing by default and so should be criticised.