WIMPY!
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Possibly. It could be the Finlandization of Ukraine.
Could be the outcome, yes. Potentially. A bad deal for Ukraine for sure. And it would mean accepting the RU annexation of Krim , Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Super harsh outcome. Thatās why they wonāt accept such an outcome yet. Maybe never. Putin will not accept just the no NATO, itās not enough for Russia. They want no EU too. And dominance of provinces, full demilitarization and dominance of Kyiv.
But weāll see, the longer the war drags on, the more likely RU accepts Finlandization as a solution in negotiations if war goes badly for Russia.
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āThreadā
Sorry, just read the thread so edited.
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I donāt know what this reminds me of, but it reminds me of something from Russia indeed:
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I donāt know if Ukraine can last that long, but April 15 is an awfully interesting date. Quarterly bond payments fall due March 16 with a grace period that lapses April 15, and Fitch declared today they expect default. That is bad for any nation, but I cannot recall a parallel to this, where there is such ill will directed to the defaulting state.
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Pro Russian internet is full of āRussia just pays back in rubles, no problemā type of takes. I doubt it will be that easy myself.
That will work for domestic holders of state bonds. It is essentially a completely arbitrary tax. Not paying in the currency of the bond issuance will be a default everywhere else, which is where it gets interesting. Bonds are in the end fairly basic instruments - pay this amount on this date in this specified currency, +/- a grace period, or it is a default. A creative or motivated creditor could have many avenues for seizure of Russian assets.
But what those pro-Russian internet types, and likely the Kremlin itself have missed is the effect on Russian corporate bonds. Russia has a fairly low debt/GDP ratio as a state, but the corporate sector is massively indebted. Many of those bonds are indexed against the state-issued bonds, so will suddenly have coupon rates exploding to reflect Russian default. All those assets frozen in the West are at risk, including a huge amount of wealth controlled by the oligarchs.
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Sanctions arenāt going to be lifted in the event Ukraine falls.
Edit: sorry, itās just occurred to me that you probably meant that this occurrence might be significant enough to cause a Russian de-escalation.
Iām not sure it would. Putin seems committed, of the type you read about. Sadly, I think only a Russian domestic putsch can change the course of this conflict now. I think thatās certainly possible but likely will take months for Russian hardship to get to the point necessary to trigger it.
Poland should just leave their MiGs by the border with Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian farmers do the rest.
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Got a mate that used to play in several punk bands over the years. One night him and a few of his mates from the scene where having a few night caps at the pub he was running at the time and they were talling a few stories about different tours.
My mate was in a band that was one of the earlier UK punk bands to tour Russia after the break up of the USSR and he was saying that at the end of the tour, they had 2 nights in Moscow and ended up eating at the maccas there - 2 of his band mates proper anti-capitalist punks where the ones that suggested it as it was the only place they recognised and it was the first ādecentā meal they had on that tour - so you can only iomagine how bad the rest of the food they eat was
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Quite honestly, if I eat anything much from MacDās other than the fries I feel a little ill afterwards.
Glad to say that they cant get planning permission for one up here in parts of North Wales.
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The last time I went into a Maccas was in Dublin in 2014 when m&d were over, and one day walking around Dublin, Dad was looking for a toilet and I was wanting to find free wifi to search directions to a couple of places Mum wanted to visit, so I went in and got a couple of coffees, if it hadnāt been for the free wifi and toilet would have gone nowhere near the place
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I donāt understand the rationale behind the Polish Migs. 30 something 30 year old planes are not going to move needle and the logistics are going to be a nightmare. Thatās provided that they find a way to operate them from Ukrainian territory, otherwise the whole endeavour is a non-starter.
And donāt forget to leave the keys in the ignition.
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Their tractors sure will be up to the job.
Iāve pulled A-4 Skyhawks - easily - some 40+ years ago with a vintage vehicle like this:
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