Been interesting seeing how policies could have been very different. It’s not exactly pro-Russian more ideological pacifism over common sense.
It’s like saying the pack wolves growling and eying you up for their next meal, would be friendly if you just put down your flaming torch.
This is correct info, since it is very visible to OSINT and observers:
One wonders what the purpose on this massive build up is if not to use them. Seems to not be working considering intimidation since Russia has failed to create enough chasms inside NATO. And the Ukrainians seems not to be panicking, so if for intimidation only, to coerce serious concession out of NATO or Ukraine, it has failed and Putin therefore has spent very vast sums of money (prioritising military traffic on railroads and mobilising so many troops is not free, it is very costly, and now they have also mobilised RosGvardia, units that are designadet for crowd control. That is costly.
So one asks then the question, are they really looking for an off-ramp ? It does not appear so, Russia’s actions are very agressive both in words and posture, and no off-ramp diplomatically is visable to me or my sources. So what gives then ? Something MUST give. Either forces must be drawn down eventually, or they must be used. The opportune time would be the end of February if using them is what they are looking for. Every SINGLE sign points to Russia wanting and planning to use them, no matter what some propagandists that deflects has to say. It is for them to explain, properly and convincingly, what this force posture actually achieves for Kreml if the actual plan is just intimidation. So far, nothing out of Russia, in official channels and their media, has a sliver of anything that looks like it is convincing, when it comes to explanations. Again, if only intimidation it is not working. So what then ???
Rewarding Russia for absolutely no reason but fear would be a grave mistake. NATO does not need to bow to bullying like small states must at times when facing Great Powers.
That Ukraine is no where near NATO membership is another matter entirely.
No, it is absolutely not a large leap, it is however a large leap to shrug and say it’s likely a fishing trawler. Fishing trawlers do not trawl over strategic seabed cables, or did you think it’s the Wild West in the Far North ? It is not fucking uncontrolled Somalian waters we are talking about here. The likely explanation is a willed action by a a Russian submarine to telegraph a signal. Were you also unaware that Russia’s planned war mock exercise inside Irish waters, that they later agreed to move, was conveniently just OVER the most strategic cables to the United Kingdom ? Either you are unaware and not knowing what you talk about, or you are playing a game. I choose to think that you simply don’t know better.
But I be blunt, I will help you with some information since you don’t know. The signal they are sending, or want to send, is that “we can do a lot of strategic damage with plausible deniability if things go south and you enforce damaging sanctions against us”
Also, you write I never mention the size of the Ukrainian army ? Seriously ? It’s super easy info to find. You realise that they have a front against the Donbas and Crimea ? And you realise that when Russia sends kitted out Battalion Tactical Groups, surrounding them, they have to move forces if they have any hope to counter ? It is categorically Russia that is building up here, intimidating, threatening use of force, not Ukraine. Ukraine is not planning, nothing points to that, to take the Donbas back with force, much less Crimea. That is the most base Russian propaganda you must be reading.
Also, no one has said an invasion is imminent, again, they say forces are there or almost there, so an invasion could be imminent and warning time is lower and lower every day. That is what is being said, you either read bad info or you twist facts. I choose to believe you just read bad info and that you are unaware of the extent of the situation.
Agree Magnus. Football tiger is sounding like a Russian shrill.
If he is Russian, then I at least understand, and to a degree respect. But he must be using very dubious sources.
The Netherlands moved it’s embassy to Lviv in western Ukraine, Israel evacuating. I mention this only because it is always worth looking at third parties taking action, parties without any reason to do anything for political impact. So Israel evacuating is therefore worth mentioning. That, and the russians have begun setting up inflatable field hospitals, which supposedly should be a pretty bad sign of intent.
I still don’t think there will be offensive operations before the 20th, but according to US intel, it is possible Russia may want to act early. And US intel has been sadly pretty good and reliable so far.
The US believes a decision has now been taken:
US intel seems to believe this (just read now this is not accurate, that Kreml has taken a decision that is,which is good, since it seemed a tad alarming) :
Us worried asking for phone call to be on Saturday and not Monday. Initiative behind call came from the US:
I pray some divine intervention takes place. If Russia invades Ukraine, so many innocent people are going to be killed, left homeless and displaced, children without parents, it will be a humanitarian catastrophe.
It will destabilise the whole of Europe and perhaps around the world.
Already, there are so many continuing catastrophes going on, Starvation in Afghanistan and Yeman.
And:
Russia evacuating embassy staff. Ignore the rhetoric at TASS and look at the meat of the information.
There is zero reason for them to evacuate staff, unless they want the world to think they will attack, or they will in fact attack.
Out at sea, loaded with cruise missiles:
Agree here so much:
Russian media, so you realise how distorted their info is (lol at the Jihadist line, considering that Kreml is shipping Kadyrov’s Chechen butchers):
At the office for OSCE (they are leaving):
Voronezh T-72B unloading:
Not exactly maskirovka is it. They will win any conflict but they’re going to get a really bloody nose as well. Something is a bit off.
Meanwhile in New Zealand…
There is probably a great deal of Maskirovka going on. Most experts thinks Russia retains operational surprise despite all the videos and satellite images. But in the modern world, large scale troop movements cannot be hidden, so they probably telegraph movements they want us to know of and then seek to hide troops (for instance) inside trains and etc. and more. The attack vectors, where exactly they will strike, no one knows this yet and probably will not know before it potentially happens. Likely only Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov knows the full extent of any possible war plans and then a given general, only knows what his forces will do, but even that is probably veiled (i.e. maybe for instance the general of the 4th tanks army knows that he is supposed to move his forces to position X, Y, Z and E while under full alert, while another commander knows that on day X he is supposed to do etc., etc.)
TOS-1A Heavy Flamethrower. A line-breaker weapon. Not officially used yet in Ukraine (although a Ukrainian column was destroyed mysteriously with thermobaric munitions at the battle of Ilovaisk, as I can vividly remember the scorched blackened skeletons still sitting in an APC and some rumours of it’s use at he Dontetks airport battle).
Anyway here it is:
Also:
All of this info coming from within Russia in staging areas over Twitter etc? Forget satellites, they aren’t even bothering to lock down their forward staging areas and letting it out there what units and what capabilities are being readied and where. This is some infantry hidden in a train. Might be an effort at some massive psychological game designed to demoralize the Ukrainians but it rarely happens that way when people are defending their homeland. I still think something is not quite right in the build up.
If it does escalate into conflict, I would not be surprised to see the initial attack come from a different sector.
BBC News now talking about Ukraine possible renunciation of attempt to join NATO. This would validate Russia’s military intimidation.
How can they make such a promise for all time?
They can’t, but that is really sort of secondary to the matter. Putin gets his save-the-motherland triumph, everybody goes home.
