It might well be a trap,but it may also be their only opportunity to take back all their territories from Russia.If they allow Russia to “retreat” , bed in and resupply their forces then that opportunity may never come again.I think they should proceed with caution, and hopefully through cooperation from intelligence services of allied countries they can be made aware of any advances the russian and/or belarussian forces make which could cause concern as the Ukraine forces push forward.
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I read that this aren’t phosphore bombs, these are heat traps to confuse AA missiles. But it looks scary.
It falls in line with this:
Erdogan says Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on four of the six topics of disagreement
Somewhat agreed on:
• NATO
• Partial disarmament
• Collective security
• Russian language
Remaining topics:
• Crimea
• Donbas
It’s double edged.
To their people they are saying it’s all about Donbass and Crimea (of which they already have the peninsula) they already ‘control’ Luhansk so if they end up with an agreement where Ukraine agrees with this they have won.
The major line is diplomatic it’s an attempt to divide. They know that the negociations are a lot more complex than appears with Ukraine. To advance they need pressure to be put on Ukraine to accept a version close to what they want. In other words they are appealing for support.
To have any chance they have to take the western part of Donbass so this is what they are telling their people.
Even if they succeed in doing this there’s still Crimea and what is their idea of what Crimea is, The historic version is a ‘greater’ Crimea that includes Odessa (this is the one I believe they are after and why it’s a massive stumbling block).
Another point is that I should think the Donbass ‘separatists’ have not been happy with what Russia has done. They wanted to take Donbass and I would think there’s enormous dissaccord between them and 'Putin’at the moment. This will calm that. It’s also logical to fall back to a more stabalised attritional war where supplies can be transported a lot more easily.
I.e it’s a diplomatic ‘statement’ to try and break their isolation, keep their brainwashed supporters on side and appease some angry separatists.
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Seems to me that the Russian retreat is deliberate. Done to pull Ukraine’s forces forward, into harms way. I imagine much of Kherson, for example, has been mined, water system compromised etc, and chemical or biological weapons could well be incoming.
This could get very bad very quickly.
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If RU offensive in the south is unraveling as well, then chemical weapons use, could solve many problems. A) it could kill many ukrainians, B) operating under gass even if protected is hard and slow. It slows everything down. Worst case scenario is gassing the major cities. But I don’t think Putin will order that. It seems a bridge too far into war crimes territory. Too overt and indefensible, but I may be wrong.
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I don’t believe Hezbollah is coming to Ukraine. I really don’t. Syrians, Assad men, yes. Lebanese Hezbollah ? No, they only fight in the Middle East on the orders of Nasrallah or IRGC and Khamenei. I doubt religious Shia holy warriors will fight for Russia for just a bit of cash and favours. Do they really owe Russia that much from the Syrian campaign ? Doubt it.
But maybe I am wrong, who knows. Just seems out of character for Hezbollah, they are no mere mercenaries.
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I never used the word surrender. I said there would have to be a settlement at some stage and that would probably involve Ukraine having to cede some territory, but it would also mean Russia having to give up some of its demands.
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but he might (ahem) ask Belarus to do it!
Well, then I misunderstood you. I thought you wanted to fast forward to a settlement. Which would in any case have been impossible at that moment in time and probably still is. Ukraine won’t get a Finish Peace without fighting a long, brutal and terrible campaign. Because RU would never lesson their war goals unless they are painfully exhausted in a stalemate. Anyway, it doesn’t matter much now.
Ukraine’s goal should of course be to lose no territory at all, and have RU pay for reparations. Until negotiations anyway. Everyone knows RU won’t really pay any reparations unless some how invaded.
@craigjohnston I apologice for being so pissed off at you the other day. I got really combative and angry and couldn’t keep my cool. Sorry about that.
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