@Magnus thanks for sharing these and for the ones when Kabul fell
Civilian CAS in Mariupol from the shelling. Russia is shelling inside the city, not just UKR positions on outskirts:
Seems like a GRAD hit:
I think it is a real stretch to suggest that Yeltsin was put in place by the West. Gorbachev was overthrown by Communist Party action, Yeltsin was left standing due to the support of enormous crowds. That transition caught the West badly offguard, and I don’t think the West actually wanted to see Gorbachev gone, simply because chaotic transitions in nuclear powers are simply terrifying. As for the design of the Russian transition, it completely ignored Western advice, pandering to Russian nationalism.
I don’t think Yeltsin truly initially understood how stupid those policies were - at the time, I actually applied for a program to teach economics to Eastern European economics faculties (I almost went to Budapest), and the basic understanding of how auctions and other mechanisms would play out just didn’t exist.
At some point, Russia is responsible for Russian decisions. Not the West, not the US. That doesn’t mean Western actions cannot be criticized, but they have agency themselves.
Major deployment on the way:
This is a full airborne regiment by the way. Clearly decapitation mission.
@Magnus what are the people that you follow saying about how long the Russians can sustain offensive operations? Also, your own estimate as well, seeing as you are by default our Minister of Defense. Is there any possibility of an offensive getting bogged down.
Also, why are the bridges still intact!? That column crossing the bridge with ineffective fire being directed at it is pretty shocking to me seeing as they knew this was coming. Bridging operations are not the schlep they used to be but having to do so under fire is harder than breezing across a lovely sturdy bridge already in place.
I’m not a twitterist but this brings a whole new level of coverage to war. @Magnus thanks.
The analysts I read mostly all say Russia is well prepared for this and have prepared for this for for over a year. Remember, a lot of the equipment and storage was shipped in april.
But the don’t have unlimited precision munitions, and so far, they have not used unguided iron bombs in cities (although some arty of course). But apart from precision munitions, which they want to use in cities, Russia is very well supplied they say.
The bridge I can’t comment on, I don’t know how the Ukrainian military high command think right now. But I know that many of them are dead.
I’m quite sure that some Western influences played a part in this outcome, but on the other hand, I agree with you in the sense that obviously, the West can’t be blamed for everything which happened at the time and later on.
Still, I feel that a massive chance for a more lasting peace in Europe was squandered at the time. But that’s already a quarter century ago. How time flies by…
Guys, you also need to remember that this is just Phase 2 going on. There are more phases, Russia has yet to attack from all directions. They want encirclement and create boilers and kettles with Ukr troops, then destroy them. That is a Russian specialty.
If you cut off Ukraine air support Russia will likely be able to occupy major cities before the end of the weekend. Sustainment operations can then take place, but typically your initial military surge is logistically supplied to last between 72-96 hours before a full resupply.
Agree with him. UKR aerial power mostly defeated by now. Runways should be made inoperable:
Russian state web sites (like ministries) are down:
My personal sense is that the missed opportunity was in fact Gorbachev. Once he had been the target of an internal coup, he was fatally weakened, and while Yeltsin was the man to stop that, hindsight shows that he was in way over his head. Had the West been able to move more adroitly to redefine the relationship with the USSR before it collapsed internally, a more controlled transition might have been possible.
Irrelevant but cool anecdote - I was at the WBCSD in 2007, and went down to the kitchen to make myself an espresso. At the time, Green Cross International had a building on the same grounds. There was an older fellow struggling with the machine, and I offered to help. It wasn’t until the coffee was being made that I turned and saw his face. I was in fact making a double espresso for Gorbachev.
I’m pretty annoyed with Ukraine to be frank. Within 24 hours of invasion, they are fighting to save their capital which is hundred of kms away. Reeks of irresponsibility and unpreparedness.
Some salt needed:
I totally forgot that Vitali Klitschko was the mayor of Kyiv. Let this be settled mano a mano between him and Putin.
