Does the main protagonist know this?
fixed it for ya. and no, he doesnāt give a shit. heās about punishing the west at this point for fucking with his oligarchy and his riches and his power. unscrupulous
I think thereās scope for a western coalition to decree that Ukraine airspace will be afforded special protected status and any incursion not authorised by Ukrainian Air traffic control will be treated as hostile and intercepted or shot down.
The basic problem is that Russian (and Soviet) doctrine does not have a magic wall between conventional and nuclear. For 50 years they have been saying that in the face of defeat, they would use battlefield nuclear weaponry. Western doctrine has been that that usage would trigger a nuclear exchange. So the entire prospect of armed confrontation triggers a process of calling each othersā bluff.
I think itās fairly well established at this point that since 2014ās annexation of Crimea that Putin is consolidating power and influence. he attempted to blitzkreig the Ukraine from 3 different sides including using an ally nation (Belarus) to spread the UA troops thin and punch through. He almost succeeded. But now, he has control of the entire eastern section of the country with the exception of the cauldron (i like this term but am not envious of it) in Melitopol and will be concentrating his efforts to isolate the rest of Ukraine from the Black Sea now. Once he has the ports he can control the flow of goods via the ports for ALL of the farming areas of Ukraine which probably supplies a large portion of the mediterranean. heās actively targeting major infrastructure in Ukraine now, trying to ruin the countryās future as an independent nation.
In your mind is there any viable alternative to stop the attrocities?
Thatās a weak doctrine and one that I donāt prescribe to. the West is not invading Russia, itās the opposite. heās calling the bluff that the West will not intervene if he invades another country? So are we just resigned to the idea that Russia is calling the shots and he has us by the balls? If we try to intervene in his invasion of the largest country in Europe, heāll just nuke everyone?
Tell me this isnāt the craziest shit ever.
No, just two really bad alternatives. Began a conflict with a real chance of progressing into nuclear confrontation and annihilating the very people we would be intervening to try to save, or watch what is looking more and more like genocide every day.
The West is essentially gambling on something like WW2ās Lend Lease model, where we can funnel enough in the way of armaments and supplies to Ukraine to let them do the dirty work.
3 Likes
You are missing the significance of Western doctrine. The Russians think if they use battlefield nuclear weapons, it need not escalate further. It is the West that doesnāt think that is viable. No one is saying that they think Putin will nuke everyone if there is an intervention, they are saying that nuclear weapons would be used against NATO troops, but from there the response spirals.
1 Like
1 Like
again, so Putin has the entire rest of the world by the balls. And now, heās squeezing in a huge game of chicken.
The west has used tactical nukes before. Two of them, in fact.
1 Like
No one has ever used tactical nuclear weapons in combat. We really have no idea what the escalation ladder will look like - and the Western view that once any nuclear weapon is used escalation to full-scale nuclear exchange is inevitable is every bit as arbitrary as the Russian doctrine.
4 Likes
We all want to stop this. We all want peace. We all want Russia to be punished - economically, crippling sanctions, cut off for years to come. We all want Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine so it can rebuild.
How?
That is far from clear, as Russia is doing what it wants!
Of course nobody wants nuclear confrontation. My question was rhetorical.
So are we living in an age where a large nuclear power can essentially do what it wants, safe in the knowledge that it wonāt be stopped, because the only way to stop it is by doing something nobody wants to do?
It appears we are.
1 Like
In the short term, the only possible solution is nuclear. And only Germany can fix that. The rest of Europe canāt build nuclear reactors in a short time. But Germany can re-start theirs.
3 Likes
sorry, youāre correct. nothing tactical about Hiroshima and Nagasaki
1 Like
Imminent attempt at Blitzkrieg. We shall see. I fear the worst, but as we have seen, Moskva is not an expert at it.
3 Likes
Yes. Russia does not fear a NATO invasion. What they say and what they think is not the same. Nothing points to a NATO invasion, there is not such force posture available to invade Russia. It would take several hundred thousand of soldiers.
This is a very real point. Many of us remember Hellas and the Baltic states and what Germany demanded of them. When the shit gets real and itās pressing on their foot, there is another tune:
Context is the new EU sanctions that Germany demanded to be watered down (they were then of course watered down).
2 Likes
2 Likes