This number canāt be verified:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497182609474043905
For me the 1st big battle is for Mariupol. Strategically extremely important in so many ways. This is the massive port Russia has had itās eyes on, in 2014 it was taken bu the separists and the Russians poll gave 93% in favor of being part of Russia. It was taken back during the counteer attack and an independante poll gave a completely different result of over 70% in favor of being Ukrainian.
The importance is just so large that both sides will fight through the strrets and there will be enormous casulties to both sides. imo
Chechens are outside it, sending smsās to the defenders to frighten them into surrendering. Just a detail. Yesterday and last night it was shelled heavily. GBAD outside Mariupol destroyed (BUK and S-300) as seen in some video I have posted somewhere above. Several civilians have died to shelling in Mariupol.
History tells us that Neville Chamberlain and the other allied leaders were against conflict with Germany as they didnāt want to get into another bloody conflict like in WW1, and he and other leaders allowed Hitler to attack and annex what he wanted with the concessions the allies gave having little effect (maybe only to encourage him) on the outbreak of WW2.
Itās impossible to know whether Putin has the same ambitions for land as Hitler had, but I really hope that we donāt sit down in 10-20 years time and look back in hindsight at this point as the turning point when the West effectively did nothing and allowed Putin to start his Eastern European conquest.
Iām caught between two minds.
The logical/rational side of me says that the best action we can take is to hit the Russians in the pockets - take away their bank accounts, take back all their property, hit the country with the harshest possible sanctions but avoid engaging militarily.
The military part of my brain sees Russian tank columns moving into Kiev and really wants to go and bomb the fuck out of them.
We should do all that we can to damage Russia without military. SWIFT should be in play now to generally hurt them, and more concentrated efforts on individuals in and around, and including Putin, should be ongoing. Beyond that, it can get a lot more shitty for them if we unleashed hackers to take down their internet, electricity, transport systems, etc.
There are many options, before direct military engagement with Russia, that can be taken.
So far, weāve barely dipped a toe in the water.
Oh, and of course Russia can hurt us in return in, for example, cyber stuff. They have been at it for years. Letās hurt them, and the way of life of their people (not kill) but to send a very strong message that they must stop. Ideally, having everything messed up will embolden an internal movement to remove Putin.
And while Iām thinking out loud, why is Putin the only one who can dispense Polinium and Novichok? At a stroke, overnight, could we not assassinate Putin and his closest leaders, and decapitate them in the way they are seeking to decapitate Ukraine right now?
With the messageā¦ no military engagement, but sort your shit out and get a stable government that is not a threat to the world?
I think most Russians want that. They are ashamed of Putin, but canāt dislodge him, as he wields the biggest stick.
On the face of it yes, but if you remove their access they will move to China lead methods and thatās the last thing we wantā¦ China and Russia becoming more and more friendly.
Iāve just heard that 200 evacuated orphans are meanwhile on their way to Freiburg / Germany. Heartbreaking
Disgusting. I assume that attacking another sovereign nation is not a war crime? Maybe it should be?
Thatās Britain and USA fucked then in future
I donāt think that is a sound argument, not least because there are reasons why SWIFT predominates, related to transparency, security, and efficiency. The relationship is already clearly solid enough for China to see Russiaās conduct as unproblematic.
I get that, but they are already friendly and increasingly cooperative. Since Crimea, Russia has moved a lot more of its trading to Chinese backed currency, instead of the US dollar.
There are significant differences, but I see a Chinese and Russian axis growing stronger.
Based on the past yes. Are there any such things happening now?
Yeah, the typical neutral (and thus in part hypocritical) position. However, theyāve announced today that theyāll follow the EU sanctions in the rough (but not automatically aligning themselves on the EU), while forbidding entry to exposed Russian people around Putin and forbidding them to open new bank accounts in the country. No word of seizing or freezing existing bank accounts though. That would be a measure which would hurt themā¦ 
So, merely lip service as expected, but on the other hand, the Swiss authorities take their original cold war place again: playing out neutrality and being available for diplomatic services between opposing countries if needed. Opportunistic and hypocritical, but potentially useful Iām afraid. 
I think it was @Iftikhar who asked the question earlier about why there wasnāt much Ukrainian resistance, in my opinion its in part what was said earlier about not wanting to mobilize on the border, and also not be seen to mobilize and encourage the conflict.
But on top of that, I am not yet seeing the sort of outrage from the citizens that suggest a civilian uprising against the invading Russian forces. We know Ukrainian forces are on a hiding to nothing not having air superiority. You might look at the conflict in Syria and wonder how the conflict was able to linger while being bombed to shit but that and this are very different wars, in terms of how religion played into that. For ISIS deaths and bodies meant nothing. Does anyone see Ukrainian citizens following suit against a nation that is so culturally similar to them? Iāve watched most of the videos @Magnus has linked, and although I donāt speak the language, most seem to have a āwell what can you do?ā attitude.
I feel its certain the long term aim is for Russia to create another Belarus as a buffer to Europe thatās much more in line to how Putin operates. Long term the Ukrainian citizens may rebel and this could see citizens fighting on the streets but I cant imagine the Ukrainian presidents recent call for citizen molotovs will amount to anything.
Well it wasnāt that long ago Theresa may bombed Syria for an alleged chemical factory even though the place was given the all clear six months previous by UN weapons inspectorsā¦which incidentally her husband made around Ā£100k out of the airstrike.
Oh and of course American troops being stationed there and securing their oilfields ā¦in a sovereign nation without being asked to be there by the governmentā¦but hey ho, itās not such a problem when itās āusā doing what the fuck we want to other nations though is it ?
Which oilfields would those be?
Dier ezzour was one that trump mentioned even boasted about it being the right of the victors to take the spoils as it were