Meanwhile in Russia…
1 Like
Who knows. There is so much disinformation around.
I’d be more prone to triumphalism if they were in retreat.
When , and if , they lose Israel they’ll be well and truly on the road to pariah status. Way to go Russia , keep chatting shit.
2 Likes
Now a Sweden Nazi campaign, ridiculous
3 Likes
It’s just a random slur now for anyone that disagrees with them. Godwin’s law I suppose. They may as well just say “the Swedes are all smellybums” or something.
2 Likes
In the past 4 days, they have moved ahead in the south, and lost at least as much territory around Kharkiv. There are a lot of signs pointing to the collapse of their capacity to sustain offensive operations. That can be restored, of course, but will necessitate a strategic pause.
3 Likes
Retreat would likely require a major shift in Ukrainian operations, going over to more significant attacks than they have been willing to attempt. I’m not sure they can sustain the sort of losses that would go with that. Fundamentally, UKR has been effective in fighting an asymmetric battle, largely by blunting Russian attacks and using a mobile defence to achieve local superiority versus active Russian movements. Moving static Russian forces out is a very different proposition - and with a significant amount of material en route, they probably won’t try it at scale for some time.
Their main focus in the past week has been pushing weakened Russian forces back from Kharkiv - they only need to push their lines a few more kilometers now to put the city out of Russian artillery range.
3 Likes
That all sounds reasonable. My problem is with statements like “Russia taking a pasting” which seems overly optimistic tbh.
Depends on how you take the ‘pasting’ idea, I guess. Russia isn’t seeing a catastrophic defeat, but a dauntingly high daily level of attrition. No one day is unsustainable, but the cumulative effects are staggering. When analysts are trying to guess at what percentage of Russia’s Ka-52 stock has been destroyed, and the credible range is 15-25% because the 15% can be documented - those are crippling losses. Even high morale/training forces struggle to be active forces as they approach the 10% mark, and most of the Russian forces don’t appear to be that.
5 Likes
I don’t think it is. They’re on almost a dozen generals killed in two months of war which is a figure completely without precedent, they’ve lost at least 15k troops, probably more in the same time, a large percentage of their Battalion Battle Groups are combat ineffective due to combat losses and we’re absorbed into others to make new ones, their KA - 52attack helicopter fleet has taken a pounding with with at least 10-15% of their entire fleet destroyed, they’ve lost the flagship of their Black Sea fleet along with a landing ship and all of that is not counting the hundreds of tanks, armoured vehicles, logistal support vehicles, aircraft, anti air and artillery systems lost.
Taking into account just all the documented losses and not even the actual losses that are probably not in that figure I’d say taking a pasting is a fair version of events. They just have alot of material and men to piss away into the wind but that will come home to roost at some point as the attrition is simply not viable without throwing their version of the kitchen sink at it which in itself is not viable.
4 Likes
1 Like
The reports that in their puppet DNR/LNR micro-states conscription has been near total also suggest that much of their front line is held by untrained and unmotivated troops, even in their area of focus. That may be because better troops have been pulled out to reform attacking concentrations, but it still points to unsustainably high losses.
It also points towards significant potential vulnerability. Forces like that can get completely swept away - you can be pretty damn sure they have not had field training that included practicing a retreat under fire operation.
2 Likes
2 Likes
2 Likes
1 Like
1 Like
1 Like
They are taking a pasting. That is well documented. Their army is however very large and they have reserves. So while they do take a pasting, they can still keep up offense for the time being and will therefore capture some territory. Attrition rate of Russian Army is not sustainable for the long run unless they call up a general mobilisation and go all in.
2 Likes