It’s really not, it’s the whole point… Has been for decades. No one “blinked” they never had any intention to invade.
There is nothing to indicate that Russia respects others territorial integrity.
They invaded Ukraine to annex regions, under the rationale that ethnic Russians lived there. Putin has already made it clear he does not see Ukraine as a state, that he sees it’s people as one.
Even if the Ukraine did not persue NATO membership and simply wanted closer relationship with the EU, Russia would be a major threat.
The underlying reason is not NATO membership it’s Russia does not want Ukraine to be a sovereign nation. NATO membership basically irreversibly secures that.
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This is 14 years ago:
“Following a muted first reaction to Ukraine’s intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains “an emotional and neuralgic” issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force, Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership would have a major impact on Russia’s defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability and “provocative acts” in the separatist regions”
Who said that? The Ambassador to Russia, currently the Director of the CIA William Burns…
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html#efmBTnBfi
What’s your point, I’m not sure I get it?
That’s it about NATO, not Ukraine… Get it?
I don’t think your quotes differ anything from what was widely known already, and in fact hew closer to what @ISMF said.
He literally says it’s not about NATO, and the quote says clearly it is!
The stated reason we went to war with Iraq was weapons of mass distribution. Few today believe that was the primary motive.
To blame it on NATO and eastward expansion (as if the west is the aggressor) is the message Russia in conveying. Absolutely. But at it’s core Russia does not want the Ukraine to be anything more that a puppet state.
Russia is the clear aggressor over 20 years or so. From poisonings, corruption, destabilising governments, invasions etc Any moves away from Russias sphere of influence is met with huge resistance.
Russias security concerns are secondary a pretext to aggression. (Not the primary motive) That’s what I am trying to communicate
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The situation is far from resolved, though I agree with you that the view that someone has “blinked” as we see from some American, particularly quarters, is silly and extremely premature.
In theory Russia can keep the threat of invasion going for a couple of months more (they can leave equipment at staging points and return), though if nothing happens in a couple of weeks, they are bound to decrease alert levels and give leave to troops to give soldiers rest. But for now, the situation is precarious and will be precarious for quite some time.
Several reports in the Russian media sphere, that Ukraine plans offensive operations and genocide in Donbas, is very note worthy (i.e. pretext) since it is obviously incorrect. In addition, Separatists have greatly increased shelling the last 24 hours, could be fishing for retaliation and a pretext or simply just provocation. Impossible to know for sure.
But no one should relax and think the situation over or defused. So far, Russia has not drawn down forces, just shifted some Southern Military District forces to it’s bases, bases which are nearer Ukraine than war mock exercise deployment was anyway.
Also, I realise you think I may be being over dramatic. That is fine, I will still be cautious though. Anything is still possible.
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This Russian/Ukraine story is crazy. You don’t bring ~150 to 170k (depending on what reports you read) troops massed on the boarder of a foreign country without planning to invade. They seem to be looking for a reason, and if they truly are going to invade, they will manufacture one easily enough.
At this point, is it simply going to be Russia against Ukraine if Putin decides to invade? NATO forces have surrounded Ukraine, but won’t lend military help to Ukraine, is that correct? How equipped is the Ukrainian army? The west will impose sanctions on Russia, and we hope that will stop Putin from eyeing a bigger slice of the map?
If this goes ahead it feels like we will be turning back the clock by 60 years.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, thus no military assistance will be provided. The Ukrainian armed forces are outclassed in every metric, even if they put up a valiant defence, it will be over in a matter of days.
It doesn’t look good at all.
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Or rather possible route. They make plans, they don’t necessary use them all. They have multiple paths they could take, also various forms of invasions/escalations.
But granted, I think you know this, I am just posting for the average person who doesn’t know much.
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One of the worst case scenarios, which Russia obviously is planning for (but may discard as an option, yet the forces are arrayed so it could be used if political decision takes place):
They are now demanding that NATO withdraw from NATO countries, no off ramp in sight as the Russian demands are preposterous beyond belief (which points to dark intent and not deescalation):
They are demanding NATO withdraw from yellow countries, which is totally insane for obvious reasons (sigh):
From the kindergarden hit today. They also hit a school with artillery.
I believe they will continue to shell until they get counter shelling. So far Ukraine is refusing to respond. They are probably fishing for a response so they can go all drama with their Donbas genocide propaganda.
Also, ANNA news is now in Donbas. That’s a big, big warning signs (they are very close to GRU and have intimate war footage). ANNA tends to show up in the days prior to a large scale offensive, as seen all the damn time in Syria and previously in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1494321027345633285
And some propaganda bullshit that some of the readers of this forum may actually sadly be reading:
Now, sporadic shelling across the entire Donbas front. Outgoing from the “farmers” and “coal miners” and tourists. At this hour, shelling audible across the front.
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I don’t know what I’d be doing right now if I was Ukrainian. Try to stay safe people.
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Yes and this is mirrored by the Georgia situation, how anyone could misconstrue what William Burns was indicating is beyond me when he was aligning Ukraine with Georgia.
Anyway Ukraine hasn’t a hope in hell all they can do is retreat and surrender once Russia calls it’s attack.
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