True. A deliberate strike makes no sense politically, nor militarily. So I think the most likely explanation is that it’s missiles some how gone awry. And there are several ways for missiles to go off course. Let us wait for more expert analysis, which will take time.
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They have changed the conversation though, and no longer is the world talking about a Ukraine victory - who remembered the Kherson celebrations today? - but rather escalation, involvement of NATO and WW3. I hope this ends up with greater protection of the Ukr skies.
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Changing the conversation is a huge gamble though. Russia struggles a lot with what the West gives to Ukraine as grants. They surely have no interest to see more advanced weapons, such as strategic range ( ATACMS) HIMARS etc. And Russian jets barely fly over Ukraine excepts at the front. It’s not as if Russia controls the skies and will be happy to see more Ukriainian air defence. They are resorting to missile barrages partly because their air force can’t fly.
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I really wanted to drop an AA joke (UK automobile breakdown company for clarification).
It is a strange one, I can not look past the coincidence of the G20 summit. A small Polish village (so a low casualty exposure) but enough to get a feeler of the backlash/response of Nato, etc.
Evening Magnus, I know we had a discussion about the Crimea bridge explosion and how it was carried out. I haven’t heard much more about it from the UK press, I was wondering if you had anymore info 
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A good read however I get nervous when US generals start blowing hot air. It’s very optimistic and a good bluff is it is one.
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Good evening !
Not right now, sorry. I would have to trawl then and it’s a bit too late for that now. But I can tell you that the exact method the bridge was hit is still technically unknown, although most experts agree, as far as I have read and understand, that it must have been a very large bomb and so in a vehicle since the explosion was too large for a missile and most agree, also a boat (would have to be a big boat and from what I read, the evidence pointed to a downward blast and not an upward blast).
Sorry for not finding a source right now. I must confess, I worry about a bit other things than the bridge right now !
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Next they will be saying that the missile got the trailer so was pretty close to taking out the tractor.
I joke but with a heavy heart as 2 people died needlessly in this futile attack. This whole thing is maddening. People have to rise up and stop lunatics having control!
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Just imagine where we might be if NATO had done that from the off.
Outside the russian threats of nuclear stikes every 2 seconds Ukrainian gains would be multiples of what they have been and more importantly soo much earlier.
I am not sure the political will was there in much of NATO to escalate the situation by essentially extending air cover over Ukraine’s territory. But now that NATO territory has been hit, that will may be there. I don’t think it will be a ‘no-fly’ zone over all of Ukraine, seems like a 150km-200km buffer is more likely. That would cover Lviv however. The Russian air force’s reluctance to venture deep into hostile airspace actually neatly sets that up, NATO protective air defence would be targeting missiles, not Russian pilots.
Of course, if NATO is covering Lviv and much of the West, Ukraine’s AD assets can be more concentrated around other centres further East.
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No need to apologise, I was just intrigued. As I mentioned, the Uk media has not - to my knowledge - mentioned anything relative to the incident.
Keep up the good work, I genuinely appreciate the updates/views from members like yourself @Magnus @wyld.at.hrt @Arminius, etc.
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I would love to see that happen (a very limited NFZ that did not require targeting RU ground forces), but I don’t yet believe it. Also, RU launches BMs and Cruise towards west Ukraine now and then. A NFZ would imply shooting down their bombers, radars and launchers and is actually very complicated even if it’s just for a limited area. Not saying it is impossible, but surely very complicated if one does not want to go directly at war.
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I suspect the non-Eastern members of NATO aren’t quite ready for a true no fly zone, just forward deployment and firing of air defence assets - essentially extending NATO air defence out to about 15 minutes of cruise missile flight time.
That sounds much easier than a proper NFZ, yes. Anyway, let us wait and see what the technical data from Poland is, the outcome of the Ramstein meeting and more. We shall soon get answers to this I reckon. 2-3 days max.
Based on Biden’s comments, it would appear the US now think it might have been a SAM after all, possibly deployed to protect either Lviv or that power plant. In the shorter range configuration, the warhead would be ~150kg, which as I noted earlier was a ‘maybe’.
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So far anyway:
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