Its something that has occupied my mind a lot this year; as well, Russia has used mostly old equipment, and not deployed any of its more modern arsenal. I thought it was a ploy at first; to draw us in then deploy the more advanced weaponry. Now I think its arrogance and a scarcity of military infrastructure. They also really did not think the Ukrainians would fight back, did not think Nato would be so unified, and absolutely did not expect the West to give weapons away. A mad misjudgment really, the type that you find around regimes built on fear?
But also, Russia do not have a great combat record anyway, are nowhere near as good as they think. I would guess the Chinese will be the same.
Suppose it makes sense that the exotic war Russia wages is having more of an impact on economies than its actual war.
Iâll address my viewpoint on this in an minute, but I suspect youâll find the number of deaths by open window involving Russian Oligarchs in direct correlation to how much money they stole from the Russian Government regarding their duties to the maintainance and supply of the military up to the Ukraine war
Russian military had been neglected, cheap tires exploding on side of road early in the war which resulted in equipment being abandoned. breakdowns, old equipment neglected. weâre seeing the fallout continue with their shortage of munitions and having to purchase back from friendly states like Belarus and the like
if you look at who has actually donated the lions share (or should we say, have publicized them) youâll see that Eastern European countries have been giving most. the EU not NATO, especially early on.
American politicians have been under fire for neglecting domestic issues whilst shipping Billions to Ukraine (by the right wing) but thatâ just a drop in the bucket of their military budget⊠countries like Latvia and such are the ones donating a huge portion of their military supplies as they know if Ukraine falls, theyâre next.
I think according to means the Czech republic have maybe given the most forbearance.
I really dont think Russia will take this beyond Ukraine, and are quite fearful of NATO. The madness that attached with this war seems to me to be like a species of love that has been rejected. its virulent, angry and has lost composure. Jilted.
It has deployed plenty of the more modern tank models, with the exception of the Armada - with the strong suspicion forming that even the small numbers they claim to have deployed of those into units are overstated. In fact, it was quite striking how quickly the quality of the gear they were using deteriorated. The attacking units in February were equipped with fairly recent vehicles by and large, by April there were already some surprisingly old equipment types being deployed.
If you had asked the Pentagon âwould you spend X to destroy Y amount of Russian capability, and capture Z examples of classified Russian hardwareâ , X could be a lot larger, Y and Z a lot smaller - and they still would have jumped at the chance. Trading $55k MANPADS for $4M jets is altering the balance of forces in Europe for at least a generation.
And yet it took months for the US Govt to really step up their game. Largely because they has to suss out the situation of the âSMOâ of Russia and what it really entailed.
Once the horrors of Bucha were revealed in April 2022, it was game on. UK were first to really jump on board and US followed shortly after.
I believe the fundamental reason the US response was that slow was because they thought Ukraine was going to be overwhelmed. US assistance was extensive, but not in terms of material delivered because it was thought to be pointless. Between Zelenskyâs political leadership and Ukraineâs military showing they were about a decade ahead of schedule internalizing what they were learning from NATO forces, that changed in April. Bucha was just good politics.
hereâs a pretty decent summary written prior up to and including Feb 24, 2022. fairly accurate, IMO. US did some politicking but didnât start backing the Ukraine troops with armaments until it became less about a âSMOâ and more stories about war crimes.
In the beginning, only Seperatist formations had T-64s as an example. It is quite recent, symmetrical with losses, that regular units are also rolling around with T-64s or the oldest versions of T-72s out of storage.
If you take a look at Oryx armour loss list, youâll notice that vast majority of losses are modern or modernised armour:
Every loss comes with a date so you can easily check the progress of losses.
It is strategically important for capturing the Donetsk Oblast. And that is a clear political goal. It is more unclear if it is of grand strategic importance in the wider theatre. Some experts say it is not, others say it is. I donât want to judge it. For Ukraine, who has invested a lot of men and material into its defense, reinforcing it heavily, the loss of Bakhmut would be painful.
I dont know about anyone else but I find this Ukraine and Russian brand of music in native tongue set to what seems to me to be western dance arrangements as sinister as fck!
I actually had a panic attack in Ukraine at breakfast after a night drinking with some Judges, because they were playing a soft cover of Riders on the Storm, imagine âthereâs a killer on the roadâ redone with slavic female voiceâŠJohn Carpenter would be proud.
