It is internal German politics that drives the cowardice more than fear of Russia (I mean, what can Russia do now after they have cut off German gas?). But to me as a European I find it very problematic that Germany has ruined it’s reputation to the degree it has done since the invasion started. I want Germany to be more proactive, better liked and more respected because that is also in my interests as a European and citizen of the West. In times of crisis it is better if all of the West respect each other and Germany is a very important country with a massive economy (and therefore expectations of leadership also in security instead of always being tail).
First and foremost this is a problem, highly self inflicted, for Germany (the PR crisis with NATO countries), but it’s also not ideal for us that want the West to be strong.
The amount of political capital Germany lost early in the war when it blocked military aid and with bizarre statements from Scholtz, cannot be overstated. Germany needs to be proactive to regain it. And I want to see them do it.
You have to bear in mind that much of the US European presence and many of the NATO facilities are based in Germany. They can’t, for pretty obvious security reasons, go bragging about it.
There was an incredible amount of activity about a week ago that I am assuming was related to the current announcement. At least, I hope it was because it kept me awake all night and I really wasn’t very well.
The point of this is that there is a lot going on that isn’t being advertised. I think even more is happening in Poland. I’m assuming that the Ukrainians are well in the loop but what is said publically and what is happening on the ground are hopefully being well managed.
Remember that this is a conflict that NATO countries are not supposed to be engaged with.
The half-full glass here is that the conversation is now very definitely around supplying Ukraine with NATO AFVs like the Leopard 2 and the Abrams. That was nowhere on the radar as recently as September.
Some Quotes from today from German foreign and security politics experts.
As you can see, ad-hoc and no plan. Politically forced into sending Marders, no ammo ordered previously in secret.
My opinion follows ( you have mostly heard it before):
Again, only pressure on Berlin works. Only by imtimidating Berlin with the fear that they will be isolated diplomatically, do they yield and join the heavy lifting. This is a problem, first and foremost for Germany, because it creates and has created a lot of distrust and political capital spent. It will really take a lot for Germany to regain trust and that is a problem. Some may scoff at it being a PR problem, but it is a real and tangible problem. How others percive you as a state matters. Trust matters. And most of this entire saga from the beginning until now, has all been unecessary own goals. And believe me, Germany will donate much more. Probably Lepards in the future too, because that is the trajectory. But will they get credit for it ? Not necessarily and that is their own fault and their own fault alone. Why ? Because what others see is Europe’s biggest economy and the leader of the EU being dragged around, feet kicking, and frightened into donating aid. What people and states remember are the obstructions and the unwillingness to lead. But primarily the obstructions.
Maybe you don’t believe me, that’s fair, but Germany has lost a fuck ton of political capital and trust from the rest of the West since the war started. That Germany is also viewed as having the greatesgt responsibility of all Western countries for Russia actually feeling safe enough to launch the invasion does not help (but could have easily been mitigated if Germany had taken the lead now and then with important qualitative donations). And worst of all, Germany donates a hell of a lot to Ukraine but no one is impressed or put at ease by it, which is a big, big problem (one would think eastern European countries and central European clountries appreciated it and felt safer, but no, they feel less sure of Germany as an ally because of how the German government has handled everything and that, I think, is a tragedy.
Anyway, I want a strong Germany, but then Germany needs to reassure allies and regain lost political capital. Leading now and then would score a lot of needed points.
Again, don’t get me wrong. Germany is sending and has sent, amazing help, both mil and civilian. But the way it is done and the previous obstructions is very damaging for Germany, which I find sad and troublesome (wanting Germany to be powerful as I do).
There is a lot of misunderstanding about attitudes among the German public on here. It is in a far more complicated position than seems to be perceived abroad. The public are very sceptical about the US, unsurprisingly, and feel ambivalent about Russia, due to historical conflicts and contacts. Only Poland stands between Germany and Russia, Berlin is closer to Moscow than it is to Madrid. Although the tendency is to support NATO, it is a very decisive issue, and not the clear cut situation it appears in other countries. I am not making excuses for German indecision or the Russophilia that still exists among some in the former DDR, but to ignore these factors is unhelpful in understanding why the German government acts as it does.
ps I’m not talking about you, Magnus. I appreciate you are a European with a knowledge of history and culture
To be honest, I find the lack of jingoism in Germany to be very refreshing. If they are playing down their involvement in the NATO operation that is purely aimed at a domestic audience.
I don’t know quite what political journalists are like in Germany but if they are the same as in the UK they will spout what they are fed. Just looking at the twitter links above there is a huge amount of post hoc falicy going on.
I dont think you looked at my links to see who they are really. They are not journalists. At most i posted 1 journalist (on phone so hassle to check). Why would I post the links of German journalists when I have been writing about security politics experts ? I post links by German experts, such as Munchen group and other mileus to support what I write to show that this is an ongoing debate in these circles.
Also dont understand what you mean about Jingoism in this context. I write, extensively and well sourced, about Germany’s devastated political capital and trust capital and have carefully explained in many previous posts why this came to be and why it is a massive problem for Germany. No one is calling for jingoism , bravado and bluster. Least of all the experts I read.
Anyway, no point going on. Germany’s problem to regain trust, not mine. I’m just very worried about European unity and how much work Germany has to do to regain capital and trust. I view it as a major European security issue, also affecting Norway.
In terms of Jingoism I was referring to some in the UK who are very happy for photo opportunities but are not very good at actually delivering on the ground.
Sorry if I misrepresented your links. Twitter is broken again so I had to make do with the previews. I checked out one name and noticed that they are associated with a source of disinformation.
I used to work for the civil service in the UK so I have seen how political manipulation works first hand. As a result I am very skeptical about what gets out. I think you will find that the perception of what is going on is exactly what they want you to see. No doubt political opponents will spin it in their own direction. That’s their perogative.
What I am writing about, the loss of trust and political capital for Germany, is something that have been discussed in academia and security and political circles for a almost a year now. There are several factors involved, most of which I have been writing about before. 1. Germany percieved to obstruct mil aid to Ukraine, and this is not a perception that laymen have (well they too) but crucially states and policy makers. 2. Germany viewed as the European country most responsible for Russia invading due to botched and ill-convived energy and security outreachs to Russia. 3. Due to 2, more is expected by Germany than others. 4. Resentment in Eastern Europe as to how German politicians have talked down the threat from Russia and belittled them. They expect if not an apology then true soul searching qand are disappointed with German internal debate. 5. Distrust has grown to intense levels from Central and eastern European countries as Germany has obstructed Military aid to Ukraine and sought to hinder supplies of effective weapons by these countries. 6. German chancellor and other politicians have made everything much, much worse with various statements. 7. NATO allies wary of German internal debate, worried about the German public, who seems to not embrace support fro Ukraine as much as many others. Questions are asked why German politicians do not try to shape the message more for its public to nudge them in the right direction. 8. Extreme loss of political capital and trust have made it so that everything Germany says or does in regards to Ukraine is immediately distrusted. This is a MASSIVE and absolutely gargantuan problem that is 100% self inflicted by Germany due to it’s God-awful messaging, ties with Russia and previous obstruction of aid to Ukraine. 10. All I, and those I read, want, is for Germany to regain trust. No one in interested in Germany being distrusted and people tear at their hair at Germany not understanding how important this is for them to regain trust. Countries want to trust and rely on Germany. To feel that Germany is an ally in a pinch .
I could go on forever really. But I have written so much about this before. Explained the problem in detail
This is an oversimplification and just not true.What I have been trying to tell you and others is that absolutely no one, expect some circles in Poland, wants to have this perception. They want to trust Germany, to be able to rely on Germany. This is not a matter of spin. Not at all.
