I think @RedWhippet’s point was just that all this posturing is really for the sake of the domestic audience, which is substantially more ambivalent about the conflict than you’d like them to be, whether due to distrust of the USA or Russophilia in the former DDR, and that the fact that you’re seeing it this way suggests that it would be sufficiently convincing for the domestic audience.
They might have lost leadership and goodwill perhaps, but given that this is what presumably what the domestic audience wants, that might just be what they deserve, but I won’t argue with the will of the people actually working.
My own perception is 100 percent unimportant though. I just report and relay the rather large issue that it is with lost political capital and trust.
My own perception is not half as negative as that of some others. I tend to make excuses for Germany pointing to domestic factors and post ww2 paranoia and guilt. Others are not so understanding as I am and unfortunately that includes some people in position as well as significant electorates in certain Western countries.
Primarily this is a German PR problem, but it affects trust, so therefore it affects wider European Security as well as NATO on a macro scale.
It is a bit comparable to US electorate electing Trump and the effect that had on US standing and trust in the US as a security guarantee.
But anyway. I hope Germany gets serious with Zenitenwende and that the parties in power gets (much) better at messaging and convincing their own public as well as much, much better at messaging to its allies. Also, Germany needs to become more proactive. Losing trust is a quick job, to get it back takes a lot of work and effort, because you have to work against suspicions and more.
I wish, but I am doubt it will be this fast. Much arm twisting from the US before we are there.
I AM looking forward to GBR’s comittment though. They are not going to be outdone by the Frogs (sorry, not the main reason, but I am almost sure that would gravely injure a Tory heart ) and I am hearing rumours of long range missiles and maybe even tanks. Long range missiles would invalidate the no ATACMS policy and blow up a new dam, so please dear, lovely Majesty’s government.
Yes, but that would mean the entrance of Belarus into the war and no one wants that despite assessments that their army is crap. They still have a lot of tanks and artillery and a large number of troops.
Yes and no. I only know one woman from Belarus who studied with me. She us ashamed of Lukashenko and Belarus aiding RU invasion. But she is bright and well informed.
I think there is less support in urban areas.I haven’t read much on Belarus for a few months so don’t want to speculate too much. But it is known that most Belarussians dont want war.
In military terms, it’s France and not Germany who have held the leader role in Europe since the end of WW2. They have the nuclear bomb, and a much more developed army than Germany.
Given the current circumstances, it’s certainly not wrong to wish for a more unified Europe in terms of defensive ability, but I for one am not surprised that Germany don’t hold a leader role in this. Their habit since decades is to let the US overlords take all key decisions, while concentrating on crushing everyone else with their economic power.
I think so, but I don’t know for sure. In any case a lot of people would die on both sides. Belarus has a badly managed army but its still an army with artillery and tanks. No one wants them to join. Thankfully, Belarus doesn’t either.
I am not very surprised but a bit disappointed after the Zeitenwende speech (I am also a Social Democrat so very annoyed at the German Soc Dems for giving my ideology a bad rep, but that is a minor personal gripe). Principally since it is unlikely , according to most experts I have read, that Russia would have invaded at all were it not for the close economic ties with Germany for one (Russia calculated they were so close that Germany would not cut ties due to the invasion if Ukraine fell quickly according to plan), but another issue is the obstruction and ill will towards sending serious war material in the early days of the war when Berlin most probably calculated that Russia would win. This created a backclash of distrust with Czechia, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, of course ever skeptical Poland and more. It is a real problem (the PR). Remember, Berlin blocked military aid from other countries which had German components. This isn’t forgotten soon I am afraid. Perceptions matter, and particularly in such a major crisis!
Also, France is not seen as responsible as Germany is for the situation (geopolitical economic ties and the German theory to tie Russia to Europe and peace through economic interaction), so no one blames France like they do Germany. it’s just bad PR.
It will take some time to change it. And probably some German leadership. As for now, they are viewed in NATO as getting dragged behind UK, US and France, playing catch up.
But I do of course understand the reasons why. But it is very unfortunate. Times have changed unfortunately. Europe isn’t stable anymore.
Anyway, I never meant to post so many posts about Germany’s contribution. I want to stress again, as I have above, that Germany has actually contributed a hell of a lot. It is just that the timing, previous obstruction and the perception of it and the messaging which has been very unfortunate.
But yes, Germany has contributed a lot and will continue to do so. I just wish they took better care of their reputation, because I want them to be generally liked, that is all
I view Germany as a highly important ally and a European power house. But with economic power, also comes some expectations when there is a crisis. So I am hopeful for the future in German Security Politics.
Yeah, of course, their incompetence in this matter has been revealed to all. But I’d think that the Germans will learn very quickly. They’ll invest gazillions in armament in the next ten years. At the end of this period, they’ll have the strongest army in Europe, and then they’ll take the leader mantle everyone expects them to take. They’ll crush everyone in military capacity as they have done with the economy. A very dangerous situation if you ask me. I’d largely prefer Germany to remain the ‘sleeping giant’ they have been until now in military terms.
But as you say, times are changing, and it’s of course logical that their economic power will be followed by military power. Let’s just hope that history will not repeat itself further down the line…
Speaking of big European countries and leadership, I haven’t heard much about the UK these last months. Are they part of this concerted effort to send even more lethal weapons into Ukraine, or are they holding back?
