Major bombardment of ukrainian positions and infrastructure today on many fronts.
Also, from the bad news from Bakhmut, there is also bad news from Soledar. From Russian photos and vids it seems to be a large assault with lots of artillery and air force involved. It’s bad. This comes after Ukraine has sent reinforcements to hold it.
Looks like RU forces are throwing the kitchen sink at Bakhmut region, not sure the UA has enough manpower to hold off such a concentrated effort. Time will tell.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612498238539694080?s=20&t=-sLAhaqR8lxE7Wp9RqEbQA
Rybar on Soledar and Bakhmut
Some Russian is masturbating now, but let’s hope this isn’t near as bad as some of the more juicy RU rumours
( don’t belive Paraskoveyevka has fallen)
This piece sheds some more light on why Bakhmut is of such importance to both sides.
Approx situation now with some fog of war one should note (unclear if RU controls Pidhorodne completely, heavy fighting reported).
From an interview with Arestowich:
Battlefield updateJan 7 is Orthodox Christmas; Putin’s ceasefire lasted about 30 minutes. A family was killed in Kherson as a result of shelling. Several people are wounded.
Soledar-BakhmutHeavy fighting in the area. Soledar is in a semi-encirclement by the enemy. The situation is difficult but controlled by UA. Rumors of Soledar being taken by RU are fake. The enemy tries to cut Soledar off from Bakhmut in the south and Slovyansk in the north.
The enemy is advancing with heavy losses. Arestovych refers to the recent photo of a field near Bakhmut covered with scattered bodies of RU troops. RU has lost an estimated 80,000 killed and wounded by trying to take these two cities.
Wagner group is not unlike ISIS but coming out of Orthodoxy, not Islam: same code, principles, and logic; same dehumanization and suicidal attacks, and Wagner will end the same way as ISIS.
Kreminna-SvatoveRU hopes to advance toward Lyman/Yampil but will not succeed.
ZaporizhyeRU stands in the defense. UA hit a concentration of troops and military equipment and a commanding post in Tokmak.
Other directionsKherson: exchange of artillery fire. Kharkiv, Dnipro – regular shelling by RU.
BelarusRegarding the recent transfer of Russian units to Belarus: there are no signs of preparation for invasion. Instead, ammunition is transferred from Belarus to Donetsk. Troops are stationed at training camps in Belarus before they, too, are transferred to Donetsk.
Next Counter-OffensiveRecent deliveries include a lot of armored vehicles. This could be a sign of UA’s counteroffensive but not imminently. UA needs time to accumulate resources; some promised deliveries will take time; due to mobilization, RU has managed to accumulate its resources faster and will likely attack first. Thus, UA will have to stop RU’s offensive, then begin its counter-offensive.
UA Gen Staff believes RU will attack in Luhansk/Donetsk regions and possibly include Kharkiv and Zaporizhye regions as the flanks. This is widely discussed with Western partners.
UA cannot accumulate enough resources for a counteroffensive because of 1) slow weapon deliveries and 2) resources required for Bakhmut/Soledar defense.
MobilizationRU mobilized 200,000 troops and is training them for its second offensive. The next wave of mobilization will be needed to replace these 200,000 troops. They will be trained and transferred to the front in May-July 2023 for the third offensive. Unlike the first wave, these mobilized will have more time for training.
Orthodox Christmas servicesPutin and the priest are seen alone during the Christmas eve service video. No other worshippers are present. Meanwhile, in Kyiv, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) leads a historic service in Pechersk Lavra, previously the place of worship for the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). UOC was prohibited from worshiping there for 300 years.
Official ROC has long been a government branch in RU, offering ideological support since Stalin’s regime. Moscow Patriarchate churches in UA have been loyal to Moscow with its imperial ideology and saw no future without Russia.
There are several official branches of Christianity in Ukraine: Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant. The transition of Ukrainian orthodox priests and worshippers from Moscow Patriarchate churches to Ukrainian churches must be done carefully, without extremes in either direction, so as not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
SanctionsUkraine imposed sanctions against 119 Russian and Ukrainian pop figures who propagate Kremlin ideology: the list will be recommended to Western sanctions authorities.
WeaponsAn American senator visiting Kyiv was amazed at the quality of accounting for the delivered US weapons. France is the first to announce deliveries of heavily armored vehicles.
The collective West changed its attitude towards the war, allocating a record package of military assistance to Ukraine of 3 billion USD. The publicized items from the new package are Paladin howitzers, Sea Sparrow missiles for modified Ukrainian air defense systems, Bradleys, armored personnel carriers, anti-tank missiles, ammunition, etc.
The nomenclature reflects two main objectives for UA: to stop the RU offensive and to begin the counteroffensive. This is the first time in 11 months that Ukraine’s needs are synchronized with Western deliveries. Western countries compete for military contracts; France and Germany are sometimes ahead of the United States in the supply of heavy weapons.
Many NATO countries are increasing ammunition production while RU is experiencing an ammunition shortage. Earlier in the war, they used 45,000-60,000 shells per day.
The West will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine increasingly. Even if Russia mobilizes five mln people, they will not be able to stand against modern western weapons.
From mid-April to June 2023, Ukraine will accumulate resources, while RU’s ammo deficit will be the worst. This will be the time for UA’s counteroffensive that will outshine the Kharkiv operation.
Next Ramstein meeting is on Jan 20. The results will show what to expect for the rest of winter and spring, even the beginning of summer.
The next stream is on Tuesday, January 10.
RU broke into residential areas
Reading these latest reports about the situation in Bakhmout is like watching a massive train derail in slow motion… 
I fear for the Ukrainians in this area now, they are getting slaughtered now as it seems. The Russians probably even more so, but they are far stronger in numbers… it’s one thing to dispose of modern weaponry, but you still need well-formed soldiers to use them effectively. If there are too many casualties on the Ukrainian side, it could prove to be fatal for the issue of this war in the longer term…
They will hold, I think. Seems like Russian has come up with a new tactic besides frontal attack for the area around Bakhmut and so they’re throwing the kitchen sink at that, for now. They have the manpower problem hence the reports of servicemen trained in other branches being thrown together and used as infantry so I don’t think having the advantage in manpower on paper translates quite as much as it would indicate on the ground. Ukraine knows that bleeding them heavily gains them more ground and time elsewhere so they will rotate as much as they can into that area. They’ve also shown that they will give up ground to preserve forces so if it looks like an encirclement is inevitable then they will shorten their lines and withdraw.
This may be more hope than reality but I do think they will hold, perhaps thinly and with significant loss but hold nonetheless, bleed the Russians as they cannot sustain a massive offensive for extended periods themselves, and launch a counter offensive.
It appears that UKR is resigned to finally losing Bakhmut, but will make RU pay the full price for it - and may be willing to make local counterattacks when opportunities present themselves. However, overall the UA seems willing to hand the initiative to the Russian forces for this stage of the war as they rebuild the reserves needed for another offensive.
I think Soledar falling will eventually mean that Bakhmut will fall because of Russian fire control over supply lines and operational encirclement.
The problem is the large Russian reserves that have not only completely stopped all Ukrainian advances (yes, these are the mobilised, they have plugged all gaps in RU lines and hindered all Ukrainian offensive movement), but also enables large scale assaults from Wagner and VDV. Ukraine is also building up reserves, but RU got their ready faster (RU also training second batch now and these will have reportedly longer and more training, as first batch was thrown in with very little due to operational need) and has the initiative.
Ukraine likely not ready to strike before March, maybe April, and must defend until then I think.
