Russia may have blown up a gas pipe in Lithuania or it may not. I doubt we will get any evidence. In any case, daring if so, but its not a critical act of sabotage. Itās also possible itās an accident but I think itās a Russian signal.
https://www.ambergrid.lt/en/news/pressrelease/explosion-in-pasvalys-district-on-a-gas-main-pipeline
May just be an accident, hard to say, need more info
Could you ever envisage any PMCās , like Blackrock for example , being given the green light by the US to get involved on the ground in Ukraine ?
so letās look ahead to this summer, if Ukraine is granted full EU status. Do you think Russia will just leave? will Ukraine have to negotiate a peace with Putin and give up 20% of its territory compared to pre-2014?
when was the last time in the worldās history when a country invaded another country and stole its land.
weāre already at war. weāre already sending money and artillery and tanks. The only difference, is the lack of bodies already on the ground.
If NATO/EU countries decided to enforce Ukraineās sovereignity of its borders pre-2014 and actually helped push Russia out with troops, this war would be over by end of year.
In the long run, itāll probably be less expensive for all of us. weāre dumping Billions of dollars into this war in expendibles and nothing is changing.
Only if under Ukrainian command and under Ukrainian law and flag. But sure, itās possible. But they would have to enlist into the Ukrainian army as a volunteer corps. I absolutely do not see them getting forcibly sent there, because then US is active. They must choose it themselves.
Also, realistically speaking, they have never fought during conditions of industrial war with artillery exchanges and no air cover as a formation, so they could if deployed as a formation turn out to be quite disappointing. They would need actual war training.
First of all, I doubt strongly that Ukraine will be an EU member by the summer of 2023. Secondly, the EU is not a defensive alliance and even if it were, joining an ongoing war is very different to joining one at the onset of it. Who the hell do you think would be persuaded to go to war in the EU ? Name one country interested in direct intervention (though you would need a lot more as you actually would need consensus).
No, we are not at war. We are in a Cold War type proxy-war and that has itās own rules and legality in international law. We are far from at war. If that had been the case, no one would have helped Ukraine precisly to avoid that !
Yeah, sure. Except if you are looking for a nuclear war and you are wondering how that may happen, well your sentence explains how that will probably come to pass. Also, if you want to see Russia enforce Total Mobilization, well, then NATO intervention will lead to that. Will Russia lose ? Sure, but at what cost. No one wants to pay the cost. No one wants to spin the wheel. No one likes to gamble.
Sure, but no one will take the risk of spitting on the Russian nuclear triad and no one is interested in getting bogged down in Ukraine for several years. Name one country interested in entering actual war with Russia. One ! There is not one and far less a consensus.
Spoiler: They will allow Polish Leopards because the consequences of not doing it will be excessively damaging, and if US can help Berlin out with logistics, Berlin will indeed send a few MBTās themselves now that they assured that they have infliced enough damage unto themselves and that they get no political capital to speak of for sending the tanks. The political masochist doctrine must be followed slavishly (pun intended). when so Berlin does this, Finland, Netherlands and others will follow with a few as the logistics will then be set up. In the end, Ukraine will get Leopards but slower than they ideally should have recieved them. I am Nostradamus ! 
tell me why weāre dumping all of these resources into Ukraine then? Globally, weāre talking about 10ās of billions of dollars which are just being spent on armaments and ammunition. making the manufacturers of war, rich beyond dreams whilst these two countries lay waste to farmlands.
Apologies if I sound frustrated here, because I am.
To give Ukraine the chance to win and assure that Russia will not meet most of its War Goals without directly entering the war. Because Russia is now extremely unlikely to reach those War goals as a result.
Notwithstanding the terrible toll that Ukraine has suffered , isnāt this in fact close to what would be considered a very desirable outcome by the US/NATO. i.e. a seriously diminished and demoralised Russian military without them having to sacrifice a single soldier.
Not sure how significant this is but various reports that German defence minister Christine Lambrecht is about to resign.
Iām not sure on how much this would affect arms shipments to Ukraine. Also, the reports seem to originate from Bild which is essentially just low quality toilet paper.
Forgot also to mention deterrence. There is a big element of that. A āThe fuck you are getting away with this for free!ā and āIn the future you or another empire will think twice before starting such an adventure because we are going to make you pay a very large costā.
A bit worrying tbh. Do you know why ? I can of cours transcribe it but just in case if you have already read it.
No matter, reading it now.
Mmm, yeah, I remember some of this. Bild may of course exagerrate but read some of this before. Will probably not affect SDP or Ukraine negatively if she goes.
For me the only way a nuclear weapon gets used is Putin clinging to power. A final roll of the dice by a man who no longer cares of the consequences. (I would not bet on him being sane)
Still extremely unlikely. But my prediction for 2023 is that Putin will be ousted or dead by the end of the year.
Mainly itās a series of faux pas - saying the wrong thing, doing the wrong thing, not looking good. There was an incident at new year when she was meant to be giving a message in support of Ukraine that was drowned out by fireworks. There is also a fiasco involving technical problems with the Puma armoured vehicle.
I sort of get the impression that defence minister is a bit of a poison chalace in the German government. My boss at work is ex-Bundeswehr and he gives the impression that they are more driven by domestic considerations than what the forces actually want or need. However, that is a complaint that I suspect is common to many countriesā military.
I didnāt have much contact with the MoD in the UK (I had one secondment which was related to veterans) but I gather that the ministerial role is quite technical. More to do with logistics and budget management than policy. Iām not sure how that compares to Germany. I suspect itās something similar.
Iām wondering whether this is just a case of a politician finding themselves out of their depth. It does happen. Often with the more capable people.
That was my prediction last year. He appears to have the tenacity of a limpet.
I think the only way Putin goes is a catastrophical battlefield defeat which is very public and in the open. Meaning it must be worse than the previous drive to Kyiv that got beat back. The realisation that winning in any form or way has become impossible (many in the Russian elite cling to hopes of reversal) and that there is no come back. Even then, it depends on how Putin is allowed to spin it at home. Another factor is his health. If it drastically declines, he may have to go.
I donāt think Putin will go in 2023 and would view that as a positive surprise.
A humiliating peace on Ukraineās terms would of course end him him too.
I think Putin cares about the idea of Russia deeply. I disagree with those who thinks he is only out for himself. In a way yes, but he wants to be like Peter the Great and Catherine in Russian history and collect all the lands of the Rus. I canāt see him allowing Russiaās destruction in a nuclear exchange for no reason but spite.
This is Putinās attempt at regaining lost Rus lands and absorb them into the Empire long term. He is failing, but still. And principally, Ukraine is the most important of lost Rus lands for ideological and cultural reasons. It is the cradle of what Russian Nationalists see as their culture.