Many of which are an order of magnitude worse for the Ukrainian situation than the use-case the US Army is thinking about.
Oh and btw - that Scholz appointed yet another person with practically zero prior knowledge of military/defense as defence minister - after the string of incompetent predecessors and yet Lambrecht beating even the steep competition - in this current situation, is justā¦donāt knowā¦kind of speechless tbhā¦
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He was in the Bundeswehr air force at least as a conscript, so rudimentary something at least !
I think listening to security experts and military experts is the most importat skill, but I agree with you. To me it looks a bit more dubious that he was part of the Russian friendship group.( From 2013 to 2017, Pistorius was one of the stateās representatives on the German Bundesrat; from 2017, he was an alternate member.[15] In this capacity, he was a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council.)
I donāt blame people for being members there in the past, just looks kind of odd to pick someone who was in such a group to that position at this time after Lambrecht and her gaffes and lack of knowledge., and particularly now when all of those Eastern Europeans are so suspicious and skeptical.
I wish him the best though. Hope he does much better than expected.
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Decision Time, probably tomorrow
Yeah, that German-Russian Friendship Group has been discussed here as well. Unlike other former members heās been relatively āquickā to condemn the Russian escalation/war, at least by German political mainstream standards. Weirdly, while this no doubt will look suspicious to international audiences, I think this is an asset in Scholzā eyes, itās a signal to a certain audience within is his own party/voters. A certain amount of ambivalence is a feature.
Again, imo heās playing to a certain crowd - Iām not talking about the hardcore Russophiles or Putin lovers, theyāre out his reach anyway, theyāll likely vote AfD or Linke, particularly in East Germany.
Itās more that generally on the side of Ukraine and pro support, but also fearful, hesitant, skeptical of military escalation, skeptical of US military politics crowd. Thatās a fairly mainstream position, just look at some of the recent polling on Leopard delivieries. And I think itās a political calculation of Scholz to somehow represent that position. Particularly since his coalition partners and the major opposition party represent a position generally far more aligned with our allies.
As for his experience - the thing that bugs me is that we keep getting these people with more or less zero prior political interest or work in the actual subject. I donāt particuarly care about his conscription time decades ago, Iād be much more comfortable with someone whoās up to date and informed on the politcal side of defence/Bundeswehr/NATO etc. This was supposed to be the lesson of the prior failures and yet it wasnāt learned. This is the job apparently hardly anyone wants in German politics, people end up there more or less by accident and this was the case even before the Ukraine war.
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Surely sounds like a defence against drones. An escalation that gets NATO involved probably will be serious enough to warrant the use of non-nuclear BMs (just forego the cruise missiles and send BMs off to Moscow), which these defences would be useless against.
But how would you be working in that office building with an AA gun on top, doing your work and boom boom boom boom. Would have Admiral Boom and Mr Binnacle vibes:
Most likely.
The alternative is darker but thankfully far less likely.
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And after the Netherlands said this openly, Zelensky just came out and called for F-16s.
Meanwhile, while the Dutch now openly states they will give F-16s, US has not yet been able to convince Germany to stop blocking Leopards
And therefore Finland was unable to send theirs even though they wanted to, so thanks Scholz. Maybe the war will last considerably longer because of you.
Maybe there are no Leopards, which is why Germany is so war averse 
Obviously part of the Light Infantry.
New style of barrage balloons
Very, very bad news from Ramstein and a grave disappointment. The war will last a lot longer because of this and Ukraine currently does not have enough MBTs to take back much territory really. This puts Ukraine on the strategic backfoot for the long term. Russia can celebrate.There will not be a flood of hundreds of Leaopards to Ukraine in the short term. A tragic day that will cost a lot of blood, lives and limbs.
More than 10 nations were prepared to chuck in with Leopards. It would have been much more than 100ā¦
He is hiding behind Spain as a strawman (Spain is skeptical but they are not needed, as Germany is the logistics hub for Leopards), which is utterly pathetic.
A black day for Ukraine and European security, Unforgivable. It seems Germany wants the war to either go on forever or for Ukraine to give up several Oblasts for peace. One suspects Germany hopes for the latter. Itās the only thing that makes sense when you apply reason to this debacle. Because this obviously very much prolongs the war or sets up an Ukrainian eventual defeat.
Edit: I think the real reason for German refusal is because its unpleasant and so politically challenging domestically, but which of course is not an acceptable reason in itself. You dont prioritise domestic political peace over bloody continental security and make decisions that can prolong the war or yield eventual victory to Russia for party peace and less resistance in society. Thats just not acceptable and is of course unacceptable cowardice.
But enough about that. I sense I am pissed of thinking of all the people who will die because of this cowardice and the dread prospect of a possible Russian eventual victory and what that may mean for the future.
Could the answer not simply be political cowardice?
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Was about to edit my post and say that I think its that exactly and not āreasonā as such. It is prioritising domestic, but strategically unimportant, political jockying over European Security and Ukraine. But of course thats not acceptable. If SDP wins the next election and has peace inside own party or not it doesnt fucking matter and should not matter. It is an unacceptable priority.
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So the tank deal is off because of Scholz scholzing once more? 
Given that everyone seems to be more than a bit stunned about Germanyās refusal to hand out tanks to Ukraine, Iāve one hypothetical thought for the experts here: letās assume that Ukraine get all which they need to win the war: hundreds of Leopards 2, missiles, artillery, fighter jets etc. Eventually, they kick out Russia and force them to accept defeat. Very well so far.
But wouldnāt it then make them the strongest military force in Europe, given the wealth of armament handed out to them, and the additional bonus given to them by their previous war experience? Maybe thatās what some are afraid of in the long term? Iām trying to make sense out of the latest developments, but itās quite difficult to be fair.
Not definitely (from what Iāve been reading).
They are still talking about the possibility of allowing the other countries to supply them.
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Yes, which is pretty much useless without the logistics chain. Besides, 40 Leopards will not make a big difference as the frontline is too long. Ukraine needs in the hundreds. Around 350 has been calculated as a need and NATO knows this. For that to happen, a lot of countries must chuck in as well as possibly buy from secondary market. Delivering tanks piecemeal is not a recipe for success, Ukraine needs to form brigades out of them.
For this reason, countries like Finland, Denmark and Norway will probably not donate leopards now. There is no point throwing them in the bin and Norway and Finland, two countries thad would have donated, has their own border with Russia and obligations and so wont donate if they think they will not have effect logically.
Nah, I am pessimistic now. But maybe something else happens that can change the situation, i dont know.
For the record, I am not worried about Ukraine not getting tanks eventually. Eventually, Germany will send them too. Not worried about that as its not the point at all.
The worry is that Ukraineās spring and summer offensive will be relatively ineffective and that far less territory will be recaptured than it could have been, giving Russia strategic advantage as the war will then definately go into 2024 and Ukraine cannot count on Western support for many years (it will gradually decrease and calls for cease fires will eventually be heard, CIA chief wasjust in Kyiv today to warn Ukraine about the clock).
The danger , and absolute disaster, is that Russia outlasts Ukraine and that Ukraine will be unable to dislodge them on a larger scale, leading in the end to unfavourable peace and something Russia could spin as a limited victory. All wars are on a hidden clock, and this is an industrial war where supplies and ammo will win in the end.
So its not about āwill the tanks arriveā. They will. Its about will they arrive in time and about h8w long the war could last.
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" No decision on sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was reached at a meeting of Kyiv-supporting defence ministers in Germany today, according to Polandās defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak. "
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