A very interesting piece here going over some of the scenarios that we might expect to happen during the next phase of the conflict.
LOL! it’s not just us…
these changes on the line look like a momentum change. a few months ago when there was a huge push to liberate certain regions, the UA army succeeded in some big gains.
RU manpower advantage appears to be nibbling back bit-by-bit.
Unless UA get more bodies and hardware on the front lines and are able to gain some impetus again, I see a long-term stalemate here. some villages get traded back/forth but RU are really trying to control the UA supply lines at this point. Using UA tactics against them, which is interesting because they’re still on Ukraine soil.
Strategically, I think UKR is in restoration mode. Kherson was a major success, but those units need time to refit. As well, it is becoming pretty clear that winter conditions neutralize some of the Ukrainian advantage - not that the conditions are easy for the Russian forces, but mobility in particular is compromised. With a now significant force of Western armour likely to be available in the Spring, I think the UKR high command just want to stay off the ropes until April while making the Russian forces bleed for any territorial gains.
not good situation here.
I agree, It doesn’t sound good, and you @Semmy @Magnus @Arminius and others are more knowledgeable in this field. My (maybe naïve) view is that the Russian/Wagner forces are throwing alot of resources into this area of the conflict and by accounts sacrificing alot of resources, mainly untrained men. I see the UA strategy as accepting they are going to surrender these areas eventually but are going to make the RU work for it. Which in itself will result in high casualties, especially if they mis calculate the withdrawal.
Looking at the topography map shown in the clip, it looks like the UA are being forced back to higher terrain. I accept it may result in losing vital supply routes, but i would like to think this is a case of drawing in the enemy for the UA’s advantage. Iv got my 
for the UA forces.
