Some key differences - Mariupol was never going to get support or relief, they were holding to simply make Russia pay the price and commit forces for a longer time. That let Ukraine build concentrations elsewhere to stop the advance. Bakhmut is similarly forcing Russian concentration and extracting a price, but it is also creating opportunities both in that area and elsewhere. Critically, it is not truly cut off yet. The thaw that cripples mechanized offensives is a matter of weeks away now, if the Russians don’t take Bakhmut in the next week or so it is hard to see them doing so.
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not that much different to the scenario behind Mariupol last Apr/May, it was a stronghold in a very contested area which prevented the Russians from closing the encirclement for some time. Bought the UA decision-makers some time by slowing down the advance into Kherson, and connecting Crimea by land to Russia.
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Mariupol was cut off and resisting for over a month though, and no hope of relief. The front line was at Kherson while Mariupol was still resisting. Bakhmut is quite different in that respect. They are still getting supplies, albeit with some difficulty, and the Russians have to be wary of spoiling attacks. Ukraine just managed some significant local successes around Vuhledar, and the Russian flanks at Bakhmut are equally exposed to counterattack.
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On the 5th month look to the west…. Helms deep all over again.
No offence meant - it is truly valiant and brave stand that they are making!
correct. and I’m stating that this has the signs of Mariupol. they’re desperately trying to hang onto Bakhmut, even though it’s 75% encircled at this point. Bakhmut battles have been happening for a month, and it’ll likely go on for another month. RU Forces may close the pincer but Ukraine seems pretty determined to keep it now that they’ve rotated out their troops for fresh legs.
the Mariupol defence started in early Mar and lasted til May.
The distinction I am getting at is the difference is precisely that between the heroic defence of the Brest-Litovsk fortresses and Stalingrad. Brest-Litovsk held a critical road crossing for a week in June 1941, with some defenders fighting on inside for some time afterward (massively embellished by Soviet propaganda). A speed bump in the end, but it was a somewhat important one for delaying use of the rail line. Bakhmut is setting up to be a point where a Ukrainian counterattack on the shoulders has to be a real threat. Even if Ukraine doesn’t attempt a major offensive in the area, localized counterattacks can push the Russians back preventing closure. The Russians are sort of stuck there now, they cannot abandon their attack, but in the end the capture won’t get them much of anything.
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Lots of stuff have happened with a large botched RU assault and much destroyed hardware.
But I am having a little break regarding posting much here. I need it. Maybe it opens up for others to post more, people who post less because I post or because I have reacted in passive agressive manner in the past when I was frustrated. I hope so. Never meant to chase anyone away. And if I have, I am sorry and apologice to those I may have offended.
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I wouldn’t worry about it Magnus, look after yourself. it’s a footy forum, after all
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Both paragraphs are positive.
Firstly, It is good to hear that the RU botched up an assault.
Secondly, although the reasons around it are not nice to hear (in terms of your health) I am glad you are distancing yourself for a period. Just make sure you do that.
Take care and thank you for your efforts 
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this is awesome
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was he near a window? 
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From two days but important as it appears that the Ukranians are now using their newly acquired long range missiles. 
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Those counterattacks in the south are very much in line with what I was wondering about above. That Russian salient there has to be a very attractive target for a larger counterattack, especially if the gains can be consolidated with the thaw preventing a Russian response. If the Russians don’t take Bakhmut in the next week or so, Wagner will be a spent force and they will have squandered what appear to be astronomical casualties for gains measured in hundreds of meters. Hard to spin that as a victory.
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we can only hope.
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Very reminiscent of WWI stalemate.
That’s because Russia insist on using everything of WWI. Tactics, recrutement, propaganda … absolute elitist incompetence.
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The toll of one year of war, looks like he has aged 5 years.
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