OPINION: Although my views may differ from those of some government officials, Iād like to express some cautionary thoughts regarding the upcoming offensive.
While I remain hopeful and committed to achieving victory, I believe itās important to temper our expectations and avoid the assumption that the war will end quickly as a result of one counter-offensive.
A realistic approach that takes into account the challenges that we might face. Even though Ukraine has received substantial support from the West, itās still only enough to sustain few large offensives. Even if Ukraine successfully clears the entire southern region, it wonāt necessarily resolve the ongoing issues with Donbas or Crimea. The fall of one area doesnāt guarantee the fall of the other. Itās important to recognize that the Russian forces are actively preparing for the upcoming counter-offensive, and we shouldnāt underestimate their capabilities.
Rather than making optimistic statements about how the war will end soon, itās more realistic to be prepared for a potentially prolonged conflict. We should also communicate this to our allies, so they can adjust their expectations and support accordingly.
While I remain hopeful and committed to achieving victory, I believe itās important to temper our expectations and avoid the assumption that the war will end quickly as a result of this counter-offensive. Everyone in Ukraine is grateful for the support we receive from the West, including from both governments and society, but I believe that we need much more to finish this war. This goes beyond just the provision of ammunition and military equipment, as important as those are. In addition to expanding training programs, we must prioritize efforts to improve our command and control structure. This includes sending our reserve officers to the best military schools to enhance their skills.
We need to focus not just on improving the command abilities of NCOs and junior officers, but also those at the brigade level and above. I plan to release a breakdown of the analysis made by Lieutenant Colonel Glen Grant in his article on the necessary changes for our army to remain modern and successful.
Finally, I would rather hear that the war has ended sooner than expected, even if it means admitting that my previous predictions were incorrect, than to hear that my advice could have made a difference if only it had been heeded earlier.
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Around Kremina:
Soldiers from the Ukrainian 25th Brigade captured a Russian trench around Kremina in a local counter offensive action. Seems to be full of Russian regulars, judging by the corpses in the trench. Strong āRestrictedā category material, so donāt just click by accident.
Summary
Well researched and written article.
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Mind-blowing that those BTRs are back in service. That design is 1954, and dates to a design spec reacting to WW2 experience. Most of them were probably built in the late 50ās and early 60s, so probably average around 60 years - they were pulled from front line units after their performance against then-modern weaponry in the Yom Kippur War, in favour of the then-new BMPs. I think the main APC models were retired in the first wave of post-Soviet force reduction, and even the specialized variants have been out of service for 20 years.
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Another sobering report here from the Washington Post , with first-hand accounts from both Ukrainian commanders in the field and defence spokesman , which serves as a more pessimistic /realistic accounting of the situation than the boosterism we generally hear coming out of Kyiv.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/
Freed article available here : https://archive.is/TK5fs
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Holy shĀ”ā ā¬ā¦ 120k soldiers killed or wounded on the Ukrainian side onlyā¦ 
This is an absolute butchery. Not yet at WW1 levels, but stillā¦
Edit: roughly 200k Russian casualties, according to Western estimations (thus to be taken with a pinch of salt, but these numbers are nonetheless horrifyingā¦).
Re-edit: also, after having read that article, and assuming the informations are accurate, itās clear that there wonāt be a big spectacular counter-offensive from Ukraine this spring.
To early to say (but I donāt think it will be spectacular either due to UA exhausting itself in Bakhmut). But Ukraine has much shorter supply lines and RU are maybe exhausting itself by repetedly attacking throughout the winter to little success, so too early to say .
But yes, itās a butchery.
120 000 UA soldiers dead and wounded is a highly realistic number and hopefully a wake up call for those who still think UA are somehow atritting RU 5-1 despite having inferior ammunition supplies. Losses are roughly 2-1, probably slightly more, in favour of UA, which of course is bad for UA due to manpower resources and limited ammunition compared to RU. But RU losses of trained personell is even worse than Ukraineās I would add. Also inferior morale.
But also yeah (not surprised by this at all):
His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russiaās Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.
After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.
āI get 100 new soldiers,ā Kupol said. āThey donāt give me any time to prepare them. They say, āTake them into the battle.ā They just drop everything and run. Thatās it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesnāt shoot. I ask him why, and he says, āIām afraid of the sound of the shot.ā And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. ā¦ We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.ā
Ukraine has also faced an acute shortage of artillery shells, which Washington and its allies have scrambled to address, with discussions about how to shore up Ukrainian stocks dominating daily meetings on the war at the White House National Security Council. Washingtonās efforts have kept Ukraine fighting, but use rates are very high, and scarcity persists.
āYouāre on the front line,ā Kupol said. āTheyāre coming toward you, and thereās nothing to shoot with.ā
Kupol said Kyiv needed to focus on better preparing new troops in a systematic way. āItās like all we do is give interviews and tell people that weāve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and weāll win,ā he said.
Dmytro, a Ukrainian soldier whom The Post is identifying only by first name for security reasons, described many of the same conditions. Some of the less-experienced troops serving at his position with the 36th Marine Brigade in the Donetsk region āare afraid to leave the trenches,ā he said. Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then āothers catch it.ā
The first time he saw fellow soldiers very shaken, Dmytro said, he tried to talk them through the reality of the risks. The next time, he said, they ājust ran from the position.ā
āI donāt blame them,ā he said. āThey were so confused.ā
The challenges stem from steep losses. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraineās commander in chief, said in August that nearly 9,000 of his soldiers had died. In December, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said the number was up to 13,000. But Western officials have given higher estimates and, in any case, the Ukrainian figures excluded the far larger number of wounded who are no longer able to fight.
A German official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said that Berlin estimates Ukrainian casualties, including dead and wounded, are as high as 120,000. āThey donāt share the information with us because they donāt trust us,ā the official said.
Meanwhile, a Russian offensive has been building since early January, according to Syrsky. Budanov, Ukraineās military intelligence chief, told The Post last month that Russia had more than 325,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and another 150,000 mobilized troops could soon join the fight. Ukrainian soldiers report being outnumbered and having less ammunition.
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But yeah, I have been saying this for months. Western ammunition deliveries and production is just a fraction of what Ukraine needs to not lose, much less win. A lot of people think a very few HIMARS with a tiny bit of ammo (UA must husband the ammo like hell and the last few months almost none have been used due to shortage) and a few thousand western 155 mm shells is enough, it is not. Millions of shells are needed, not 60 00 etc. This is an industrial war and whoever has the most artillery, artillery ammo and the best logistics to feed it to own units, will win in the end. Thankfully RU logistics are terrible with large bottlenecks, but they have vast storages, Ukraine has virtually nothing.
I find it deeply worrying that Western partners of Ukraine have only very half heartedly increased their own ammuniytion production.
Iāll respond to this with a toilet paper analogy
back in 2020 in beginning of Covid, there was a run on toilet paper (if you remember). people started hoarding the stuff, buying up whatever they could get their hands on. emptied the warehouses in a matter of months. When Scott/Kreuger were asked if they were upping production to match the demans, they simply replied that their plants ALWAYS run at maximum production levels and they have no intention to build another production facility for a short-term increase in demandā¦
edit
specialized equipment for machining ammunition rounds arenāt usually just sitting around at your local lathe dealer. I think theyāre planning on a 400% increase by end of year? up to 90,000rounds a month
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AZOM was supposed to be the area easiest to hold for defenders due to extensive under ground bunkers.
New attack on Vulhedar
if theyāre running a skeleton crew in the city, the last remnants of a fighting forceā¦ it will be hard to keep such a facility.
If may be that it is skeleton, it is likely also because of problems reinforcing it due supply lines being under fire since they keep trying to reinforce Bakhmut.
My point is more that the AZOM is the are in the city which analysts targeted as a UA strongpoint that could be held by few men compared to its size. It is the most defensively flank in Bakmut and if they are about to lose it now, then I wonder aloud why there is no withdrawal to more defensive lines outside Bakhmut.
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/pid-golovuvannyam-prezidenta-vidbulosya-zasidannya-stavki-ve-81593
It seems like the high command want to hold Bakhmut until it can launch a counter offensive, but a counter offensive wonāt be ready before end of April, perhaps early May. It would be dangerous to launch it prematurely without enough preparation.
Edit: I guess I am just worried. The war isnāt going half as well as I would like and I find the manic optimism of all these ignorant NAFO types some what unbearable to read since they ignore reality and think everything is rosy and that all Ukrainian soldiers are superior to Russian soldiers and that all Ukrainian officers are way better than Russian officers and that UA have way better weapons, and the truth isnāt really that pretty but way more nuanced (and dangerous for Ukraine). I am really invested in this conflict, so it hits me hard at times.
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Guesses are that the rate of attrition was as high as 5:1 in favour of UKR at various points, but has been around 2:1 since some time in February. To be brutal about it, if I am in Russian high command, I will take that. That is not sustainable for UKR, even before factoring in that Russia is trading in a mix of convicts and conscripts with their trained soldiers, where UKR has been losing trained veterans.
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this just feels more and more like Iām watching an episode of Band of Brothers. Crossroads ep 5
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