taking the war, to Russia
2 Likes
I was catching up on about a weeksâ worth of his videos yesterday , including this one. Taken together , it looks like the shaping operation is well advanced and the actual counter-offensive could be imminent. This Belgorod operation is clearly an attempt to fix Russian forces away from the main action.
Gen.David Petraeus gave an interview to the BBC a couple of days ago. He was saying the UA had everything they need now and were more than capable of pulling off a major combined arms attack. He expects them to punch through and the Russian defences to collapse.
Letâs hope he 's right.
1 Like
Could this be related to the rumour thst the Russians wanted to engineer an incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuke plant?
1 Like
I think itâs more to do with the intention of hindering the offensive. It was widely anticipated to happen when Kherson was recaptured but didnât , so this shows just how fearful the Russians are. And of course , itâs totally compatible with their scorched earth policy. That plant is looking extremely vulnerable now.
1 Like
I wonder when we will get some real information coming through on what is actually happening with Ukraineâs probing of the defences?
Well weâre going to get nowt officially from the Ukranians and just a load of the usual bs from the Russians. Probably the best indications of whatâs going on will come from Russian military bloggers.
Edit: Itâs a great shame Magnus is no longer here.
4 Likes
Itâs specifically against the ICRC 1977 protocol. Itâs also worth seeing what Russia themselves say about it:
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42
Especially dangerous objects shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.
Russian Federation, Regulations on the Application of International Humanitarian Law by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 8 August 2001, § 81.
1 Like
Which is why the Russians are , laughably , trying to pin the blame on the Ukrainians. Their well worn playbook of plausible deniability doesnât translate well into a war arena where crimes against humanity are being independently scrutinised.
There is a suggestion however that the dam collapse could be down to structural failure. But seeing as the Russians had been keeping the sluice gates shut for the preceding period and that the water level was at a record high , then this would be no accident either.
2 Likes
The issue here is the question: who benefits from the crime? If you look at one of the newest articles on the bbc website on this topic, youâll see that itâs actually a balanced issue.
On one hand, it hinders a potential offensive from the Ukrainians in the zone which has now been flooded. On the other hand, the dam provided a lot of bitterly needed water in Crimea, and also forces the Russians to pull out of the zone around Kherson, which they were constantly besieging and bombarding until now.
Also, the US havenât said that it is the Russians who have blown that dam, they just say that they donât know. Time will tell who did it I suppose.
Here is that article:
Itâs nothing new mate. They did it to humanitarian convoys at Mariupol and elsewhere.
sick fucks. flood their homes and then wait for the rescue boats to come in and mortar them? remind me to punch the next Russian I see here, just on principle.
1 Like
With very little solid information coming from the front , the NYT gives a pretty good overview here on the preliminaries of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Freed article here: https://archive.is/b9Qjw
Thread which is a post mortem of a failed Ukrainian attack.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1667266063501873153
And footage from the vehicules confirming the crews probably managed to escape:
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1667484865820753920