This is illegal, both Bulgaria and Romania meet the requirements of joining Schengen since 2011 or so.
Even if Hungary doesn’t veto, the other Russian stooge (Austria) will veto as they did last year on basis of illegal migrants, which can’t stand because the route is through southern Europe and the Balkans. Yet Croatia was not vetoed because pipes and oil and gas.
Austria’s objective in eastern Europe is control of Oil and gas resources through OMV in the Black Sea. They got the deforestation right and they are pressing for a better oil deal.
To add to things not right, trying to win far right voters by illegally blocking Schengen accession for Romania and Bulgaria, because migrants is at least morally wrong.
I obviously have follow the Middle East conflict intensely every day, but not going to burn myself out by starting to post a lot about Israel, Gaza, Red Sea, Iran, Yemen, etc. The Gaza campaign and the precursor, the massacre by Hamas, are both insane anyway and self destructive for all sides. Just sad and tragic and much hypocrisy on all sides. Disgusting conflict.
As for important events in Ukraine, there has been a lot happening lately. A-50U (Mainstay) most interesting in terms of losses, new 40 Scalp promised by Macron today etc. And much, much more…
Quite close to my own thoughts. But this has not yet happened and does not need to happen. But correct, Europe cannot take over for the US in terms of support since there is massive ammunition shortage in Europe and production has not yet ramped up. There is no particular increased production of armour and artillery either, despite 2 years into the war.
Anyway, I wasn’t supposed to comment on the industrial aspect of the war now, but a Trump victory is grim indeed and will likely lead to a limited Russian victory. Then there would be a renewed Russian imperial push 3-5 years later down the line against former imperial lands .
If Trump wins - By 2030 Ukraine will be a vassal state if not a Russian province. The Baltic states will not be independent countries or part of EU. Massive migration from them to Scandinavia. NATO will no longer exist. Russia will be threatening Poland. The Balkans will ignite again with large scale atrocities.
Emboldened far right parties will control Italy, France, Spain, the Netherlands etc etc.
And that’s the double gut punch of a trump victory. The affect on the Ukraine war is one thing, but at least Ukraine at worst likely has a way out right now, ceding territory, fast tracking EU and NATO membership and being protected from future Russian invasions. But with Trump in, forget the war. NATO would be fucked. As you say, Eastern Europe would be in big trouble.
Eastern Europe is already in big trouble. the meddling of the middle east to destabilize Europe and turn BRICS into THE world superpower is almost unstoppable now.
Just remember, it was the Democrats crying 24/7 that Trump would start WWIII during his term. Trump now joins Carter, Ford and Nixon amongst US presidents without a new war. Kinda ironic how many wars are going on right now under this lovely administration and how many players (republican and democratic) within the senate and congress have ties to the military industrial complex. /me waits to be called the typical bigot, MAGA, extremist, white supremacist, etc etc…for even mentioning this.
Reporting from Ukraine channel on Youtube has been offline since Dec30
He/they put out a message earlier in the month that Youtube had been playing games with their income stream and was thinking about changing platforms. not sure where he landed.
As for the gruesome battle of Avdiivka, it has looked increasingly precarious for months now, but the Russians have the last few days unfortunately broken through.
The fortified military base Zenit has now fallen after RU broke through to the east of it, effectively encircling it. Zenit has been a front position since 2014 and the strongest bulwark on that sector…
Fighting now inside Soborna street, so I am afraid to say that we have reached urban fighting inside Avdiivka and that encirclement is closer.
As you can see, not many good positions now to stop the grinding Russian advance and it may speed up now (well it has, the last 4-5 days as a consequence of the breakthrough).
Grim.
The war is extremely far from over, but Ukraine is in dire need of substantial military aid from the West and it is not recieving it. It also lacks manpower, and here I will be critical of otherwise heroic political leader Zelensky, who have been too afraid to order mobilisation since it is politically very difficult. This will likely have dire consequences. RU economy is in pain for lack of workers, but to be blunt, they do conscript around 1k soldiers every single day and they can keep this up for years. RU, unless something changes, is not in danger of running out of cannon fooder.
I am of course very worried and I mostly worry because others do not worry enough and do not seem to comprehend the logical consequences of a limited Russian victory in Ukraine…
Maybe RU advances slows down, maybe UA manages to push back a bit, so they can hold Avdiivka for months longer or something changes and RU can be pushed back (but not enough UA forces or ammunition there to do that now as far as I know). Or maybe it now soon collapses like a domino, that is unfortunately impossible for me to say, although it looks grim right now.
No industrial conveyor belt of artillery in sight. Some promises, but EU produces almost nothing (it does, but the numbers pandered by industry and officials are tiny in comparison to Russia) , only 300 000 of the million rounds promised in 2023 delivered in 2023, and 1 million rounds is a tiny amount of what Ukraine needs.
As US is abandoning/betraying (pick one depending on your pov) due to political infighting (ethnic Nationalists in MAGA (who unbelievably controls this policy through Trump), Europe is in no form or way able to replace it. US was, at the height of delivery, not sending enough shells, never sending offensive weapons apart from the 20 meagre ATACAMS, now long spent; but now it sends nothing.
There seems to be no sense hurry in most Western capitals apart from Helsinki and the 3 Baltic states. Lots of free riders supporting Ukraine in words, but not deeds (Italy good example, sends virtually nothing, but the hard right lady PM of theirs, looks good on stage, visiting foreign capitals while praising and defending Ukraine in words only).
Spain, France, UK, Germany, US, Australia, Canada; all of these supposedly strong states have been a major disappointment (not necessarily in that order obviously). This needs to change. But will it ? Time is running out.
I guess you don’t know much about Canadian military procurement. We are inept. We take a decade to overpay for helicopters that don’t work well. Getting actual munitions in the time frame required is beyond the capacity of the Canadian military establishment. We have more generals now with 23k soldiers than we did when we had 750,000. Not quite the inertia of the German military, but they have made some improvements in the past two years.
BOOOOOOOOOM:fire: 
Ukrainian drone sends 
Russian invader to the moon IT’S A FUCKING NEW RECORD:fire: https://t.co/zzGiPwkUmB” / X (twitter.com)
