That again, would come down to the menat stability of each side. Ukrainians that I have met, would probably not consider blowing up a nuclear power plant as an option.
Russians on the other hand seem mad enough that I would not be surprised the idea had crossed their febble little minds
Desperate times call for desperate measures. There are no good choices in war. For Russia, it would be a way of saving face if a compromise is made, i.e. damage it, create a no-mans land border as it were, and retreat saying that the Ukrainians did itā¦
The Russian propaganda about Ukrainian dirty bombs is slightly concerning, since it is so massive. Could mean that Russia is planning a some sort of radiological provocation.
But I am not very worried about major fallout, as I donāt think they would do that. But moderate fallout is absolutely a risk since they are playing games like that. Its politically high risk. But I suppose one should be worried.
and it hasnāt happened yet. A tactical nuclear strike is in many ways a admission of defeat within the narrative of āa special operationā. He is too proud for that.
I think Putin is darkly poetic and always plays to the theatre audience and in that context a brave retreat in the face of the use of a ādirty bombā is possibly one exit scenario.
Obviously wild conjecture but there is no obvious conclusion to this other than (to all intents and purposes) a Ukraine defeat.
Ukraine is only attacking with around 5-6000 men in Kursk though. The loss of territory has more to do with force disposition (they donāt want to pull men out of Donbas since they are advancing there). There isnāt really a risk that Ukraine will capture the city Kursk and I strongly doubt they will capture the nuclear plant either, unless they comitt much more reserves into the salient (and then they need men to occupy). So I donāt think the risk is high personally.
Ah. Well, maybe. They are already playing stupid games there. I suppose, if they have to retreat from Zaporizhya, there is such a danger, unfortunately.
Just to expand on the Ukrainian nukes. With the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine did indeed return them to Russia in exchange for a pledge by the signatories (US, UK and Russia) to respect its borders and territory.