How much stuff did they have there???
Iāve a question, maybe for @Magnus : are the latest Ukrainians attacks on Russian territory militarily relevant, or just PR stunts? Is Russia to be really hurt by them, will it weaken them going forward, or is it mainly a means for Ukraine to attract attention on the war again and get further help from abroad?
maybe to get russia take some equipment from the frontline and use them to defend their backs
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There are a few motivations for Ukraine
i) This badly diminishes Putin, and dispels any characterization of it being other than a war. Ordinary Russians have been allowed to live life as normal within sight of a nation they are invading. That has now changed.
ii) Tactically, since the Russians built their defensive line in the south, virtually the entire front has been fought on terms of engagement that do not favour the Ukrainians. The combat has been static, linear, and slow-paced. That has neutralized many Ukrainian advantages, leaving them only those inherent to being in a defensive posture. While any gains the Russians have been making have been expensive in terms of casualties, they have been steady and the Russians have been perfectly happy to pay that price. That was a cycle that the Ukrainians could not win.
What this offensive has done is allowed them to change those terms, force the Russians back into a dynamic, mobile war - and it has been a disaster for the Russian forces.
iii) The aforementioned attritional cycle also played to the advantage of the Russians, because where they did not wish to push, they could simply sit in trenches and wait. The Ukrainians would have to pay the attacker price, and Russian reserves could react and make that too steep a price to pay. We saw that as the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive ground to a halt. That in turn let Russia concentrate their more effective formations in the areas of their choosing, while hiding their brutalized, untrained conscript units. This offensive has dramatically changed that.
iv) the Seym River pocket suggests an outline of what the Ukrainians want the fight to look like - Russians attacking prepared Ukrainian positions under time pressure (as the Seym Pocket is liquidated) that forces mobile assaults, which the Russians have not shown an ability to do well. They have been attacking on their own timetable, this kind of warfare doesnāt work like that - and is far more susceptible to the sort of counterattacks that Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to execute.
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Thanks for the reply. Youāve then got to wonder why they didnāt start such an offensive way earlier, for instance last summer? Has something changed in comparison to last year?
Last summer, the reluctance to broadening the conflict among the Western countries supporting UKR was quite a bit more intense. At the same time, in the end Ukraine would much prefer taking back their own territory than taking and controlling Russian territory, so that was the priority last summer. It was last summer that really established the static warfare dynamic in point ii) above.
Yeah that is true, the US and other allies didnāt want Ukraine to cross their own border. They seem to have understood meanwhile that this was suicidal in the long term.
The other aspect is political.
The US election adds uncertainty, if Trump was to win, Ukraine would be under a lot of pressure to negotiate peace (surrender more annexed land). This gives them a significant bargaining chip.
Also the need from allied partners to show some form of positive progress. Especially with winter setting in again soon.
Until recently the supply of weapons had conditions that they could only be used in defence. The fear western nations had that it would escalate things. There has been some commentary that some western nations were unaware of this operation. However Ukraine deemed at this point itās a risk worth taking.
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Sometimes it is better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission 
Thanks everyone for the updates.
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I saw this infographic posted elsewhere from an American politician. Iām wondering if @Magnus, who has monitored these in detail, has noticed this tactic with fake accounts:
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Yes. Just having a slight break.
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This caught my eye, and I was wondering if itās just rhetoric, or if itās meant to be an actual serious change.
Of course, the cynical side of me is wondering if itās just theatrics to get the countries with elections coming up to abandon support for Ukraine.
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I remember them flying this particular kite at the very start of the war and it getting a lukewarm response. Itās probably just more bluster from an increasingly exasperated Putin.
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yes
russiaās threats since Feb2022
javelin? we nuke
Armoured infantry carriers? we nuke
howitzers? we nuke
shells? we nuke
himars? we nuke
atacms? we nuke
tanks? we nuke
F16? we nuke
okā¦ we didnāt nuke but donāt you dare touching the soil of mother russia or we nuke.
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Itās sabre rattling, meanwhile they are being pushed further back up the escalation ladder.
There was a sketch on Yes Minister (or Yes Prime Minister), in which one of the civil servants creates scenarios under which nuclear weapons would be used and there is never one single event under which the PM would authorise them, despite the fact that he stated that he would be prepared to use them.
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Yes they āsewā mistrust instead of āsowā?
Yeah itās American all right
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1831267329772073110
This is after a large scale attack on Lviv, which followed the large attack on Kyiv some days ago (I didnāt post about that)
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1831258636057710667
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1831274483929243798
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1831174587381354895
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1831283419071864843
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Ukraine has started using thermite from drones. This is the second such video lately
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1831071273499455869
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