Not the majority of Ukraine in 2025, that is not possible even with a bad peace. But Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimea and parts of Kherson and Zaporitzhya, yes, very possible. While the situation is indeed precarious and the trajectory frightening (principally due to critical lack of Ukrainian men and women in uniform and uncertainty regarding future aid), Russia’s situation is also attrocious.
Their armoured fleet is so depleted that assaults with civilian cars, electric scooters and more; have become the norm when their Storm Z are attacking, leading to ridiculous losses. Their mechanised brigades still have IFVs, APCs and tanks, but there is a serious toll. The quality of their army is still going down and not stabilising.
So they did it. Ukraine started a new Kursk offensive. I have mixed feelings and mixed anticipation. But cannot judged, I am just slightly skeptical of the outcome.
Yes, offensive turned out to be very small, an opportunistic attack on Russian forces when they rotated. But it was reported as very big. I’ll post news from the 3-4 last days tomorrow.
Right now, I want to do something else (like play a game before I go to bed)