It should hasten their progression but in all probability won’t.
US will continue to fund Israel. Countries will still buy their tech.
In the Israeli world view, they won a defensive war in 1967, settled a too generous peace so had to fight another one in 1973 against the same opponents. Through out that time, they were subjected to a sustained campaign of terrorism. They made peace with a major enemy in Egypt, returning the Sinai - and saw that leader assassinated for having made peace. Since that time, every time a peace process has seemed to be building towards an outcome, the Arab/Palestinian leadership is taken down or climbs down to ensure its own survival. Taking responsibility and attempting to moderate was what Barak tried, and it more or less ended his political career.
The brutal reality is that there is one land and two peoples that claim it, who now hate each other. Permanent managed conflict is probably about as good as it is going to get.
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As October 7 should have made clear for everyone, there isn’t such a thing as a permanent managed conflict. That’s the pipedream Netanyahou sold to the Israelis, and we have seen the result. A conflict always comes to a point when both sides either decide to call it a day and trash out an agreement, or if not, the conflict gets out of hand and results in more and more violence, destruction and suffering.
So, the question Israelis will have to ask themselves is: do I want to live in a country in which the level of hatred and violence will continue to grow year after year, with more and more suffering and casualties on both sides, or do I want to find peace in the long term, and vote for politicians who work towards that goal? The answer will define the future of all people living there, West Bank and Gaza included.
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This opening sentence from Arminius’s post is telling. If the Israelis continue to be delusional and continue to live in their bubble, they will only come up with another disasters solution (Gaza) for the October 7. The Israelis probably (and I’m being generous) think the last two decade of peace is worth the way they had managed the occupation. They probably think a more vigorous mowing of the lawn will ensure another 20 years of peace.
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Is this Netanyahu, knowing that his days are numbered, trying to drag Iran into war to stay in office and keep fighting? Seeing himself as some sort of war time leader?
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This is the Israelis making good on a promise they made a couple of days ago that they would pursue Hezbollah and their Iranian facilitators wherever.
Israel knows that if Iran/Hezbollah reacts, the Western governments are likely to swing back to ‘Israel has the right to defend’ position.
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In normal circumstances, I would say yes, but with the atrocities Israel is committing in Gaza, and the fact that this was Israel striking first, I don’t think too many western governments would swing back towards Israels position
And lets not forget, an embassy or consulate is considered sovergn soil, so Israel has just openly attacked and declared war on Iran. Not too sure too many will be lining up to defend Israel on this.
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Israel only needs US, and Biden is waiting for another opportunity to bear-hug Netanyahu.
It is a rather remarkable escalation, and not in the ‘accidentally hit’ category of non-accident. That was a targeted strike on the embassy.
He absolutely is not. Biden cannot stand Netanyahu. Israel is a different matter.
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I don’t think Biden is differentiating between Netanyahu and Israel. There has been some recent soundbites, but US position remains as entrenched as ever and Netanyahu is the prime beneficiary.
On the contrary, I think Biden has been steadily working to construct a situation where even conservative Israelis see it as a necessity to throw Netanyahu out of office. Look at the litany of outright humiliations that the US has seen at the hands of Israel in the past four months, it has been a constructed sequence that has now moved Schumer - a Jewish NY Senator with a previous 100% voting record as far as AIPAC is concerned - out of alignment with Israel.
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They are trying to make the distinction that it was an annex that was targetted and not the embassy proper.
I have little doubt that the building was being used for nefarious purposes etc., and may indeed have been dedicated to that use. Nonetheless, it is presumably a legitimate diplomatic building (at least as far as Syria is concerned) and in the middle of a capital city. That is a massive escalation.
Yes, but how has that affected Netanyahu? Whether it’s Shumer or the abstention at UNSC, isn’t it all posturing and signalling without any consequences?
I would not say that there have been no consequences. Just not a snap of the fingers that ends this situation, which is not in the real set of options for the United States. That vote is a watershed moment, and it is only a matter of time now before the UNSC faces a binding and/or enforcement resolution. I don’t think the US is yet ready to let that one go through as well, but even the prospect of it is making a lot of Israel very nervous.
Netanyahu is on the ropes. It is no accident his government is taking actions to try to alter the frame of reference to include Iran.
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The West has to come up with something other than their ridiculous statements.