I was reading through my posts earlier on this thread. I had predicted a death toll of close in the 100k’s (both directly and indirectly) as a result of this conflict.
Looks ever likely that it’s the case now. The death toll will continue to rise once starvation, illnesses etc set in.
The thread isn’t restricted just to the Israel / Palestine conflict , even though that’s obviously the dominant topic atm. The idea was to connect the dots across the region.
Yes, Syrian air defense systems and air force are mostly equipped with 70s and 80s hardware. But they do have some modern hardware (S300 variant and Mig 29), but they are probably too few to be an active deterrence. Or perhaps the Syrians don’t want to engage those assets and further deplete their capabilities.
But isn’t that the most reckless strategy since Hezbollah has the capability to inflict some serious damage. Also, as the US-UK airstrikes in Yemen have shown, these attacks don’t considerably degrade the capability of the opponent.
The S300s are overwhelmingly around Damascus (and incidentally the Mig-29s). In the end, the Syrian armed forces don’t really give a crap if a few Hezbollah get killed and their Iranian-purchased munitions are destroyed - the relationship is fundamentally transactional. What they are worried about is another June 5, 1967, where the Syrian air force was more or less crushed on the ground.
Israel is probably not afraid of Hezbollah going all-out, and undoubtedly would welcome it in a strategic/political sense. It would be a conflict much more in line with what the IDF was built to do, and against a massively inferior opponent that had made the mistake of being the aggressor. Gaza is a grinding nightmare for everyone involved, Israeli air superiority is really not worth anything there now. Southern Lebanon would be far more palatable. At the same time, while Biden (and Schumer) have ratcheted up pressure on Netanyahu, a genuine shooting war will shift the dynamics right back to the morning of October 7.
Israel has been doing these strikes on Hezbollah logistics in Syria for years, it is really just the level of care they take to minimize Syrian casualties that has shifted since October. I suspect this strike is the worst in those terms yet. It isn’t really degrading the capability so much as making Hezbollah pay a constant price for that capability.
I think anyone in the US and UK forces conducting the Yemen strikes would agree with that characterization as well. It is hard to degrade guerilla capability that doesn’t have many force multipliers to begin with. Doesn’t take much for six guys to launch a Zodiac and carry RPGs.
So, in effect, Israel/Netanyahu is trying to drag Hezbollah into a war to ramp up its waning support?
No, Hezbollah has been doing that all by itself with the escalation of activity in south Lebanon. But the increased willingness to risk Syrian casualties (military and apparently civilian) could be a function of more Syrian AA assets in the area of Hezbollah targets, or a willingness to escalate tensions to drag Syria further into the conflict, or both. Certainly an all-out attack by Hezbollah would likely be welcomed by Israel, but it would appear (see @Hope.in.your.heart 's comment) that they are willing to broaden the conflict in order to shore up support in the West. They aren’t necessarily going to provoke it, but they aren’t conducting themselves with the precision or caution they have in the past.
Hmm, I wonder where they got that idea 
This is beyond cynical. I’m lost for words.
Military Industrial Complex. Arms manufacturers need to clear the shelves to build more, develop more, make more money, and do their bit for the shareholders and stock market.
It is appalling, as there should be a clear restriction on doing business if war crimes are the outcome. Congress should shut it down.
Israel (and US) are like the Romans watching the grisly game of gladiators in mortal combat from their high seats. In fact, Israel (and US) is far more twisted; at least the gladiators were well-fed. I’m really struggling not to dehumanize the Israelis.
But it isn’t all Israelis. It’s the absolute fucking idiots who are in, or propping up the, government.
I know, I know. But I’m really struggling to be rational and objective in the circumstance.
Take a step back. Emotion is mankind’s biggest weakness.
I try. For the last few weeks, I have tried not to browse on this topic. But even if I click just one link (generally, it’s Guardian), I end up with something grisly.
It’s all grisly. War is.
Human’s are a fucked race.
Even more fucked than your unnecessary apostrophe.
Autocorrect on the phone.
