The Middle East Thread

One of the protesters, Beit Lahia resident Mohammed Diab, had his home destroyed in the war and lost his brother in an Israeli airstrike a year ago.

“We refuse to die for anyone, for any party’s agenda or the interests of foreign states,” he said.

“Hamas must step down and listen to the voice of the grieving, the voice that rises from beneath the rubble - it is the most truthful voice.”

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:man_shrugging:

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How long before they start hunting Palestinians for sport?

That’s the level of moral depravity we seem to be dealing with here…

It’s probably already been done.

Can just imagine the best that the Israeli drone operators have between themselves.

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A few infantry men undoubtedly (and reportedly) have done so already.
At least if “by sport”, you mean shoot a random unarmed Palestinian when it is absolutely not necessary to do so. Some Russians take ears, I have not heard Israelis do this, but would not be surprised at all if some individuals do.

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Some Isrealis already have since quite some time.
They have even hunted Isrealis by mistake.
If not state sponsored helped by local police.

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Meanwhile.

(A mission to no where, the US will not defeat Ansar Allah like this, but they do ironically grant them further legitimacy).
As usual, the strikes comes in response to Ansar Allah launching a ballistic missile at israel a couple of days ago.

And meanwhile Iran has boarded two foreign oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Also meanwhile: Iranian state media announces that Khamenei has ordered all missile cities to have launchers rigged for launch.

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They’ve been doing that since 1948

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A large-scale attack on Iran, unprecedented since World War II, is coming soon, — Israeli Channel 14

A large truck of salt needed (certainly regarding the biggest since WW2, which is obvious horseshit considering February 24th, 2022), but a massive strike against Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure (as well as military bases), seem highly likely.
The United States will be the main party in such a strike. The likely result would be grievious harm to Iranian military industrial capacity (which is welome) and forces, but highly likely trigger a full retaliation and this war (highly less welcome), which of course will be difficult to deescalate.
It is note worthy from comments from Moscow warning against this, that they also believe an attack is coming soon.

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Mind you, I don’t envison such an attack “very” soon. Logistics and force posture is lacking, as is media build up to justify it; unless Israel is mad enough to go it alone, which I again doubt.

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I would have thought it would push Iran into a preemptive attack. Do they have silos or a more mobile option with their missiles?

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They have a few silos, but unfortunately for them, mostly “Missile Cities” underground, where they are stored. Now these are difficult to strike, but satelites will detect major preparations for strikes. It is still possible that they can get off a preemtive strike, but it likely won’t be big enough to do serious military damage.

If we are honest, despite relative precision of some Iranian missiles, they are more effective against civilian infrastructure than actual military targets, since their flight time will have enemy military personell go to safety and air defence on high alert.

But they can be “lucky” of course and cause mass casualty events as well as hit something actually valuable.
But in a war, what matters, is not really civilian destruction (unless it impairs economic ability to wage war or decrease morale too much), but destruction of war fighting capabilities. It won’t really change much for the military End Game if Iran succeeds in killing a large number of people, but it can change the way the US and Israel will strike them after such an event.

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AFAIK, their short and medium range missiles are self-propelled/truck-mounted. They are also solid-fuel powered, meaning they are mostly ready to launch. No idea about the long-range ones.

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That is true, but they have to open up the missile cities and drive them out and sequence the strikes. It is useless to launch just 50 missiles, you have to launch hundreds to actually cause real military harm when Israeli and US air defence is as good as it is.
And these preparations take some time.

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Isreal is never going alone, sadly.

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I think it’s difficult to monitor dozens (if not more numerous) targets spread over such a vast and difficult terrain. But Iranian armed forces aren’t sophisticated and lack the targeting, and guidance technology.

I don’t remember the source (probably France 24, or DW), but when Iran launched the second missile assault (which one was not drummed-up in advance) some analyst said that Iran is capable of launching a bigger one even under difficult circumstances.

Dreadful times.

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They are absolutely able to launch much larger ones, but it takes time and preparation. You should note that their previous strike was measured as to be strong but not force war. Every Iranian strike (and even Israeli strikes on Iran up to now) has been measured to cause harm, but not too much.

If you launch too large an attack, then it is war. And of course, Iran does not want war as it would lose in the end and have its economy and possible regime destroyed.

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I don’t know if anyone remembers, but I wrote about “Escalation Control” after October 7. Hamas strategically failed there, opening up a spiral of doom because they could never control the fallout and limit the Israeli retaliation (which to me is an unforgivable mistake for a regent).

Previously, Hezbollah was experts at Escalation Control. But Hamas forced them to be sucked in and now they are a shadow of what they once were, as they were unable to stop escalation before the massive israeli strike (long heralded) eventually came.

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