The Middle East Thread

Analysis: The military logic behind Israel’s ‘total’ Gaza siege | Israel-Palestine conflict | Al Jazeera

2nd aid convoy went in, so assuming there were no noticeable issues with day 1 convoy. 17 trucks today, so as long as it continue, it will help the civilians. No confirmed and reliable information on whether fuel was allowed in for this particular convoy.

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As per Canadian government, they have a high degree of confidence that Israel not responsible for the hospital being bombed.

Video is from CBC news, which is main public news channel of Canada.

Probably the most detailed video analysis I have seen on the hospital disaster. It’s from the Wall Street Journal and cross references 4 cameras, 2 from Israel and two within Gaza (al jazeera and an independent cell phone footage).

EDIT: if I understand this video correctly, the rocket firing site must have been to the south east or south west of the hospital (not close), so firing NE into Israel, goes for a bit, then it fails and veers off west.

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Thanks for this.

Seems a pretty comprehensive report. Hamas / Islamic Jihad have a history of launching rockets from Civilian places. And as the video says , 20% of the rockets fired by Hamas in the 2021 conflict had misfired. That’s a very high percentage. Not that Hamas particularly cares about misfired rockets though.

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Yeah, heard that, then thought maybe biased numbers, then heard UN, so if anything it’s under reported.

Rockets / Missiles ideally need good equipment/technology/materials to be indigenously manufactured to have a high accuracy percentage /low error rate to be useful. That’s why they cost so much.

The rockets that Hamas uses are ones which are made using scavenged goods etc and are basically designed to overwhelm by numbers and not be accurate or error free. I think the cost of 1 rocket by Hamas is a pittance compared to how much Israel pays for when it manufactures one missile.

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The figure I saw quoted was $800 per launch for the basic home-made unguided missile, which compares to $50,000 per launch for the Iron Dome anti-missile system and up to 3 times that per interception. Obviously, with enough simultaneous launches that system can be overwhelmed.

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This will bleed Israel in terms of money spent. It’s relatively inexpensive for Hamas to say launch 5000 missiles at Israel. The cost that Israel incurs for the iron dome as well as interceptor missiles is huge. As is the cost of the missiles that Israel fires in retaliation at their targets.

Hamas doesn’t count the human cost in terms of the prices in lives that their attacks bring upon so they’ll continue to do this.

Iron Dome is probably quite cost effective for small number of missiles as the cost of lives and damaged infrastructure is considerable more expensive than a single launch. However, it is much cheaper against no missiles.

There was some discussion about the merits of the system in the German media as the Bundeswehr are purchasing the system to work alongside the Patriot and a home designed system that is being used in Ukraine at the moment. There is an article in English about it here:

I think this has always been the problem with missile defence systems: ultimately they can always be overwhelmed. It’s just a case of being able to do that cheaply enough.

I’m assuming that Israel’s current objective is to remove known Hamas launch sites but, from what I’ve read about their weapons, that sounds like a particularly destructive game of wack-a-mole.

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Even 5,000 missiles doesn’t sound expensive considering the barbaric loss of life Israel is inflicting. At 150k per head that’s only 750m - probably covered multiple times over by the support Biden seems to be eager to provide.

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In the long run , the defense spend is not sustainable. It might be now considering uncle sam is paying the bills and more.

Unless there’s a solution to the crisis , Its not sustainable for Israel to continue down this path.

That does seem to be their main objective. Remove the launch sites so that the ground invasion does happen.

Except that it’s a military misadventure imo and one which does more damage in the longer run.

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The problem was that the system was overwhelmed and hence they are wanting to take this out at source. If this was placed on a more symmetrical war they would be looking at bombing military bases and launch equipment. The problem is that Hamas appear very adept at using civilians as a shield. I don’t think they care who gets in the way and, unfortunately, I don’t think Israel does either.

Even with the best will in the world there is scope for fuck-ups as we saw frequently with NATO forces in Afghanistan. In that case, every mistakenly bombed wedding party was a recruitment coup for the Taliban. I can’t see how the Gaza operation can be anything other than that times 10.

I wouldn’t pin it on Biden. Any US government would do exactly the same. Israel is their major proxy in the Middle East. They’ll always support them to the hilt.

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In fact Biden’s comments seemed to be saying, “we messed up badly after 9/11, be warned”.

Biden appears to be mainly concerned at stopping the conflict spreading. Most of his actions appear to be aimed at Iran.

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The key point here is that Bibi and his government want to wipe Palestinians from this area and if that takes genocide then they think so what. The BS about ‘self defence’ is just that. Future generations of innocent Jews will pay the price for the barbaric acts of the Israeli state.

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Broadly agree but never day never when it comes to geopolitics. Can’t obviously see a near term scenario where Israeli interests aren’t backed by the US but looking 30-50 years ahead it is a bit more plausible, if remote.

Meanwhile, in Israel, people who are against the mass murdering going on, see themselves ruthlessly muzzled by the government. The following article is very instructive in that regard, I highly recommend it:

‘An atmosphere of fear’: free speech under threat in Israel, activists say

Jewish and Arab Israelis detained, fired from jobs and even attacked for expressing sentiments interpreted as pro-Hamas

Two activists from a Jewish-Arab peace movement were recently detained in Israel for putting up posters with a message that the police deemed to be offensive. The message was: “Jews and Arabs, we will get through this together.”

The activists, members of Standing Together, had their posters confiscated, as well as T-shirts printed with peace slogans in Hebrew and Arabic.

It was not an isolated incident. (…)

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Yeah the behaviour of Zionists worldwide can only be described as Fascist.

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