If Russia were to begin wholesale attacks on civilian targets, I think the Ukrainians would probably get carte blanche to go towards Belgorod, for example. People don’t care nearly as much about natural gas pipelines that have been shut off anyway as ones that they need for electricity and heat.
At the point that Ukrainians were driving into significant Russian cities, I think the entire Russian regime would be in peril. Unfortunately, so would the entire world.
It’s the wrong thread, but the bastards in Azerbadjan has launched an immense strike on Armenia. They have hit targets all over Armenia, taken out S-300 and MLRS fire.
It is the only region where Russia has been useful as a deescalatory power. And now the mice are dancing on the table because Russia is powerless to intervene. Russia has mobilised their military base in Armenia, but they can’t protec them really. Bombing all over Armenia.
Baku’s behaviour pisses me off, I wish someone could bomb them and force them to step down, but no one will. Aremnia is always alone.
Honestly, I am a bit biased here, but Erdogan wants to see Armenia destroyed out of racial and cultural laothing and if it was up to him, Azerbadjan would annex it. AKP want Armenia to be ruled by Turkomans in a Greater turkoman realm. The last Karabagh war was also supported (very, very much so) by Erdogan and they basically gave Azerbadjan air superiority in form of Bayraktar and even shipped thousands of Syrian vassals to fight for Azerbadjan.
So this is a clear pattern. Erdogan thinks Russia is powerless and sees and opening for Azerbadjan. It’s also a plus for Erdogan that it will humiliate Russia since they can’t guarantee security now.
It, from my perspective, was the only location on earth were Russia did something useful.
'But don’t know how big this is yet. Just systematic strategic bombing and shelling, and Azerbadjan trying to advance. It may be just to humiliate Armenia further and grab some land, or it may be worse, I dont know.
But I am not going to post more about this here on this thread. But yeah, it’s happening and well, I feel for the Armenians. They are going to be butchered.
It is an interesting question as to what the rest of the CSTO partners do in reaction to Armenia’s call. Another vector of possible escalation, or another element of humiliation for Russia.
It is. But I would prefer Russia did not get humiliated in that theatre, because it involves a lot of Armenians getting killed and maimed and Turkey’s imperial Neo-Ottoman ambitions fueled and furthened.
Ignore the hyperbole, but it is to be noted that Russia is evacuating border villages in Belgorod (confirmed by more serious sources)
Apparantly, she has done an interview with the BBC and is regarded to be serious. Perhaos she is. I just don’t tend to post the sources with hyperbolic language that often. But it is war, so is to be expected of course.
Meh, she is just an american woman in Ukraine, from what I hear on the radio.
Chuck is super optimistic but that would be awesome (Lyschansk and Sieverodonetsk). Not sure I believe that though. I don’t think Kremenna is confirmed…
Except for the Armenians themselves, I think the more dangerous potential humiliation is the de facto collapse of CSTO. My expectation is that Moscow will not actually ask the other CSTO partners to assist in order to preserve the fiction of that alliance, rather than risk a refusal from Kazakhstan in particular.
It’s probably just me but I get tingles down my back with the mention of The West funding a military long term. Its probably just because these sorts of things have a habit of biting us on the arse later down the line.
Why is this seen as more ideal than joining NATO? Because of the risk of escalation? Lack of a buffer between NATO and the enemy?