Regarding reserves, they do have them around Belgorod and Rostov an-Don. For reasons we can only guess at (holding them back for offensive ? For disaster ? I can only guess), they have not been injected. And that’s the ones in theatre. In extremis, they can generate more battlegroups from elsewhere, but that takes time obviously.
I’ll be honest, I don’t know if anyone in the west knows what Russia has up it’s sleeves. A few months ago, we were all thinking that Russia had a shortfall of artillery munitions and rockets but the recent counteroffensive in Kharkiv has shown that they had a lot of munitions still in reserve.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian Army still has whole battalions available at their disposal.
Oh, they do. Many divisions, their army is large. It’s just that most of them are not located near Ukraine now and it would take a bit of time to get them battle ready (and it would leave Moskva and St.Petersburg and other important cities undefended etc.). But they have significant reserves around Belgorod. But the reason why they don’t inject them may be that the Russians claims that Ukraine has not injected their reserves. But I am gjuessing.
IMany signs that they are struggling with precision ammo. But they have a lot of artillery shells for sure.
Do they have that ability without compromising their own defence?
Not really. The Norwegian border has for instance not been so ill guarded by the Russians sine forever as an example, as several brigades have been moved to Belarus (participated in the Kyev push) from there.
I mean, it’s not very compromised now, but if we are talking about them generating more than what they have in Belgorod and Rostov (which are designated for this war and theatre), then naturally, it means that other Russian fronts will be less defended. Border against China for instance has less troops now than before as well. But both we and the Russians know that there is no one really about to invade them, so I guess they can move divisions from Volgograd, St. Petersburg and Moskva if they need it.
He is pretty good analyst. Worth watching his videos.
Announcement today that a referendum on joining Russia is going to be held in Kherson - taken with some of the recent infrastructure targets, this would appear to be an escalation on Russia’s part. Before for reasons presumably of national prestige, they have only wished to hold such referendums when firmly in control, Kherson will be the front line. Perhaps for some reason Putin believes they need a casus belli for mobilization, or perhaps it is meant as an escalation threat to NATO.
Pressure building for a persona non grata order - with Russian retaliation expected.
kick those cunts out of the country.
Found couple of interesting tweets…
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Ruzzkies closer to mobilization?
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Iran supplying AFU with arty shells
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I think it likely means mobilisation and that it referendums will be used as Casus Belli.It may be a precursor to a Declaration of War. I don’t see any options for Russia to back down if they go ahead with referendums and get the majority votes they want (which they will of course), then they surely must escalate.
This winter will be bad.
Doubling down on stupidity. I don’t think even the Soviet Politburo were this thick.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity
Something is definitely brewing. Russian stocks just tanked.
This is going to be awful. Also awful for Ukraine. Russia may shoot itself in the head economically and politically (worse than before), but don’t underestimate how worse the war is now going to get, both for Ukraine, the world and Russia.
Because this will have domino effects.