The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

You said 90% of the world, which I understood as 90% of the world’s population. That is clearly untrue whatever happens in the UN.

None of my sources have even mentioned this yet. Just saying.

I agree, it’s missing verification. So too early to tell.

Second time I post something unverified lately, I should go to bed instead. :wink:

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No, sometimes it gets verified, mate. I’m just saying we should be catious with it. It’s still a very interesting post, and if it turns out to be true, then it’s of course awful.

OSINT stuff is often hard to filter. Hard to know what it fake propaganda and what is truth often when it’s preliminary. So don’t stress ! Just be cautious and skeptikal is all I am saying :slight_smile:

however on the subject of white phosphorous it’s been widely broadcast as being used as incendiary

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1525768777228505094?s=20&t=ohMibor-pYDGz7P1jvvZqg

I’m definitely not stressing about it, but I take a point to be self-critical when warranted like here.

And I hope it’s a fake to be honest.

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It’s Thermite. It’s not covered by conventions unfortunately.

At least, as far as I know, they have extensively used thermite against positions, and some towns and cities they are attacking and large scale in mariupol. It looks a lot like white phospor.

Looks like this

Thanks for the clarification, goes to show don’t believe everything you read

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People who are shelled by thermite thinks it is white phospor. Very often it is reported as white phosphor because it’s hard for laymen to know the difference. It burns much like phospor but with less smoke. It’s a kind of incendiary bomb.

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I think I mentioned my Grandad’s exploits during the war. As a young lad I’d asked what he did during the war and I’d be met with hushed tones and quiet pleas not to ask. I imagined the harrowing things he must have seen, the heroism, the daring-dos, and I’d quieten down with respectful deference.

It was only after he’d passed away that I learned that the pleas not to ask grandad to revisit his wartime memories were actually borne out of shame and embarrassment. Not so much daring-dos, more daring-didn’ts as he was court martialed for desertion, the cowardly fuckhead.

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Not good but still not as bad as a friend’s gramp who became a turncoat or as we say it, running dog, to save his own skin. The traitor spied for the enemy and served them throughout the war. Many suffered terribly from his treachery.
Then nearing his deathbed much much later, he decided to donate his cadaver for medical research; to benefit his fellow humans so as to atone for his misdeeds… …obstensibly.
In reality, it’s to escape the possibllity of his grave being desecrated by the families and friends of those he had wronged. In death he still robbed them… … … of the chance for vengence.

Not sure if you have ever been called up for active service, but I wouldn’t judge anyone until I have to face that situation myself.

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My granddad fought in WWII in the Far East. He was shot by the Japanese when fighting in the jungle in Burma. Survived, came home, lived a long life. Like lots of others, he didn’t like to talk about it.

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As for Russia, the UN vote from a while ago is interesting and all, but for me, the bottom line is what is right and just. At that point, Russia has expanded into Ukraine territory, unjustly, has flattened loads of towns, killed lots of people, including many civilians, and is bang out of order on this one. That phrase doesn’t even begin to capture it, but I’m not confident that The Hague will be effective in prosecuting war crimes on any scale after this is over.

Now Russia is in retreat and Ukraine have the upper hand militarily. Lots of Russian soldiers have died. They are regrouping and presumably counting the cost of going again. They have a failed partial mobilization going on, and the people are just not into it… because they know an immoral shitshow when they see it. Maybe fear is part of it too, but I’d like to think if you are defending your country or fighting for the most noble purposes, you can overcome fear and do your duty… but Russia does not have right on its side, so it is bullying its own people and drafting in all sorts of scumbags, on a hefty wage, to prosecute their dodgy war.

Russia will likely escalate in order to use it as a negotiating position to try to hold onto land they have taken from Ukraine, either in this war, and/or going back to when they annexed Crimea.

Ideally Russia itself will take care of Putin and see him removed. If it doesn’t happen like that, I feel Russia needs help from the west to climb down. I don’t know how that might happen, but if it doesn’t, and they continue to lose troops and territory, they will be more likely to reach for the tactical nuke, at which point it takes on an unpredictable course with the potential outcomes looking more and more dire.

As for the Russian people themselves, I can see some similarities with the MAGA crowd, as @Magnus has pointed out. It is a potent force when people buy into misinformation, and I see it a lot here in the States, MAGA, Covid, you name it.

I think it will be important to continue relations and not cut them off when all this is said and done. Ultimately I’d like to think the Russian people want the same sort of things we all want - the ability to live, work, raise a family, go to school, have a beer with their friends, and all the other mundane things in life that seem to go out the window in war.

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An interesting article on the evolution of the mood and opinions of the Russian-speaking population in Eastern Ukraine, and Putin’s obvious mistake in judging the situation correctly:

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Not important, but a bit funny

More important

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I’m wondering if Putin doesn’t really care what they think, so much as whether he can get his way there, and project that he is in firm control.

Still a backfiring, mind, but with different reasons.

A piece here from CNN about the declining morale , and thereby effectiveness , of the Wagner Group on the front line in Ukraine. Not that much new tbh , but it does add to the overall picture of Russia’s travails in the war ;

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