Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4, 2023
Click here to read the full report
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan
July 4, 2023, 8:35pm ET
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4.
- Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 5, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.
- The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Groupâs June 23-24 rebellion.
- Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
- The official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrovâs standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space.
- Kadyrovâs prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however.
- Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4.
- Russian conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB).
- Russian officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.
All that just sounds like stalemate, which Iâd assume benefits the Russians more.
this is nuts
âAre they mad enough to do it ? Yes they are.â 
Who on earth do the Russians think they are kidding by trying to pin the blame on Ukraine if it happens ? There is absolutely no conceivable reason why they would do it.
The reason why they might do it if their defense lines break, is that they expect just a bit harder economic sanctions and more material aid to Ukraine. What would they gain from it? Well, the hope then would be to completely stop an Ukrainian advanced dead in its tracks and outlast, outlast, outlast Ukraine.
Is it a good idea ? Most probably not, but that doesnât mean they wonât consider it. They are pretty much all in.
its also more crap to report in the Russian news about how bad the UA are,
and loyal Russiaâs must sign up to join the army
and fight to protect the Motherland from these barbaric UkrainiansâŠ
Sorry for not making it clear but what I meant is why would anyone believe a Russian claim that Ukraine would be reponsible for creating a nuclear disaster in its own country. Such an allegation might fool some in Russia into believing it , but for the rest of the world such a claim would be treated as preposterous , surely ?
True, but that is no primary reason. Politically, it will of course be a disaster if they do it, but they donât necesarilly any longer care about what most of the world thinks apart from China and maybe Brazil and India. African countries will follow them anyway.
Edit: didnât mean to delete what i was supposed to quote, a mistake happened when i posted. But you all can read.
Sure, but some countries would claim to believe them anyway.
True enough , just like they bought their bullshit about the dam.
https://twitter.com/M0nstas/status/1676515224097021955
Tbh, the video is a bit ugly and should only be viewed with some caution despite being filmed from far away.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1676552154843164672
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1676649364507205646
Itâs a bit funny some of the stuff they have found in his appartment
Villa searched by the FSB.