You know russians have a major setback when their top ranking clowns mention nukes.
West: Javelins
Rus: NUKES
West: himars
Rus: NUKES
West: leopards
Rus: NUKES
West: stormshadow
Rus: NUKES
West: F16
Rus: NUKES
Short of Ukraine expelling Russia from its territories, which looks very unlikely right now, possibly only the Russian people can stop this now. And the only way that happens is if the population is tangibly negatively impacted by the war. Last night’s developments where people’s flights are cancelled because of Ukrainian drone strikes, and where there are real inflationary pressures on people’s lives really help.
The West can win the long game: The combined economic power of NATO and other nations aiding Ukraine is many many times greater than Russia’s. As the above article states, the syphoning off of spending to the war effort at the cost of the economy can’t continue into perpetuity for Russia. If The West stick together and continue funding the fight against Russia, they are being hurt a tiny fraction to how Russia is hurting. Wear Russia down. This is the way.
The game requires players and unless Ukraine has a large influx of players, the definition of what constitutes a “long game” becomes critical from Ukraine’s point of view. I get the impression that the West’s tactic is to simply exhaust the Russians - basically to make them a non-entity. Some one will have the run the numbers. Carry this on for X or Y years and the Russian capability is largely blunted and the Ukrainians aren’t basically all dead - then we’ll sign a treaty, shake hands and move on.
I don’t think anyone should underestimate the Russian people’s ability to withstand privation , considering they’ve been conditioned for it for hundreds of years. The point is when does it become politically unacceptable to Putin. He’s already broken the unwritten contract between the State and the population that immunised them from politics by having to turn to conscription once , and will soon do so again. So the question has to be at what point does he decide that the costs (to himself) begin to outweigh the benefits of his special military adventure.
The question can be easily inversed: at what point does the West decide that the costs (inflation, lack of gas and oil, military costs etc.) begin to outweigh the benefits of helping Ukraine?
That’s of course Putin’s gamble, that he can sustain the war effort for a longer time than the West will be able/willing to go. His population is obviously willing to go all the way with him, otherwise, massive protests would already have started since long. And he can always up the repression levels while he transforms the country’s economy to a fully-fledged war economy. He has potentially tens of millions of men to sacrifice, the only problem is to see how he can equip and form them.
Elections are a good indication of how far the West is willing to go. The more Right/Far Right parties win power, the more insular their policies are to appease their population. I agree that a majority of the population of the West will ‘lose interest’ in the war if leaders and the media don’t play this just right. And yes, unfortunately it does require a song and dance to the majority to keep them on side even when its obvious they should be supporting Ukraine, particularly when its merely costing them $/£/€ and not requiring their life.
Russia’s demographics are a mess, and the unspoken ethnic cleavages are really relevant. There are shockingly few military-age ethnic Russian men relative to the size of the population. At the point when urban Russia needs to start showing up to the battlefield, things could turn quickly.
The Western countries are all being able to demonstrate various new toys in the name of aid. Both intelligence and real world application is invaluable.
Second is NATO. US wants its allies to meet 2% GDP allocation long term. Its not their interests to let it wane.
Third even in peace, Russia is an enemy to US/UK. Russia is a poorer, weaker, less stable country than it was 2 years ago. US will still want this war to lead to Putins end.