The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

That again, would come down to the menat stability of each side. Ukrainians that I have met, would probably not consider blowing up a nuclear power plant as an option.

Russians on the other hand seem mad enough that I would not be surprised the idea had crossed their febble little minds

Desperate times call for desperate measures. There are no good choices in war. For Russia, it would be a way of saving face if a compromise is made, i.e. damage it, create a no-mans land border as it were, and retreat saying that the Ukrainians did it…

Ukrainians could use the same reasoning…

There are military pundits nightly on Russian state tv who have been calling for nuclear strikes almost since the beginning of the war.

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https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1824551478997959121

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https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1824739127981437205

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https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1824696286517322232

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https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1825046958353907865

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https://x.com/moklasen/status/1825091732981026952

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https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1825120915165691909

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https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1825091483734515745

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The Russian propaganda about Ukrainian dirty bombs is slightly concerning, since it is so massive. Could mean that Russia is planning a some sort of radiological provocation.

But I am not very worried about major fallout, as I don’t think they would do that. But moderate fallout is absolutely a risk since they are playing games like that. Its politically high risk. But I suppose one should be worried.

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and it hasn’t happened yet. A tactical nuclear strike is in many ways a admission of defeat within the narrative of ā€œa special operationā€. He is too proud for that.

I think Putin is darkly poetic and always plays to the theatre audience and in that context a brave retreat in the face of the use of a ā€œdirty bombā€ is possibly one exit scenario.

Obviously wild conjecture but there is no obvious conclusion to this other than (to all intents and purposes) a Ukraine defeat.

Ukraine is only attacking with around 5-6000 men in Kursk though. The loss of territory has more to do with force disposition (they don’t want to pull men out of Donbas since they are advancing there). There isn’t really a risk that Ukraine will capture the city Kursk and I strongly doubt they will capture the nuclear plant either, unless they comitt much more reserves into the salient (and then they need men to occupy). So I don’t think the risk is high personally.

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Am referring to the plants within Ukraine, not in Russia.

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Ah. Well, maybe. They are already playing stupid games there. I suppose, if they have to retreat from Zaporizhya, there is such a danger, unfortunately.

Just to expand on the Ukrainian nukes. With the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine did indeed return them to Russia in exchange for a pledge by the signatories (US, UK and Russia) to respect its borders and territory.

We all see how well that worked out.

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The meme about Chechens fucking goats is based on cultural something, you know. Smoke-fire and so on…
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1825093648544944540

Afghans have young pre-teen boys, others have goats…

previously filmed :
https://x.com/BeRuzzia/status/1657948381363183616

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https://x.com/loogunda/status/1824906151810478348

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https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1825357258810695699

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Light 'me up up up