Yeah, the separation of powers is pretty shaky in the US these days. But the State vs. Federal is a little more resilient.
But even if we focus only on the Federal cases, it would be an enormous scandal if it was ever able to connect Biden to the decision to investigate or prosecute Trump. Remember, the thing that kicked the entire Benghazi shit storm onto the level that would come to define the 2016 election cycle was not the attack itself, but Bill getting caught having a 2 min 1-1 interaction with Loretta Lynch, the then AG on the tarmac of an airport while in passing. Even that short of a meeting with the husband of a political candidate under investigation) was considered such a violation of the requirement to insulate the AG from political influence that she was forced to remove herself from the ongoing investigation. That move and commitment to defer to the FBI is what pushed James Comey to the forefront of that case.
Without the reaction (completely appropriate) to that tarmac meeting, James Comey never is put in a position to publicly announce they were reopening the email investigation a couple of weeks prior to the election. Yes Trump shit all over that independence, but we cannot then just tar everyone with Trump’s shitty stick. But the fact “we” (collective we) largely do is probably the biggest stain Trump’s presence in our politics has caused.
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There is conceptual separation of power however if you believe its not circumvented, then you have swallowed the Kool-Aid.
I think its going to be near impossible to get a conviction on this case as its a trial by jury and all that’s needed is 1 juror. Also obviously true that he will appeal if the verdict is not to his satisfaction. In the greater picture its a lose, lose, lose for the Dems, and maybe a win in order to keep him off the campaign trail.
Just can’t shake the weird feeling that all this would end up getting Trump elected again.
The guy’s not fit for purpose but he’s very likely to get a boost from these proceedings.
I still like to believe the majority of people aren’t fooled by him. I certainly see way less open support for him compared with 2020 (bumper stickers, flags, signs on houses etc.)
That’s completely anectodal of course but outside of the monumental mistake of allowing him to be elected in the first place I’m still holding faith that the American people are better than falling for his schtick. Especially while he is going through multiple court cases and legal troubles.
Its worth remembering that he has never won the popular vote and that was before most people even realised what a monumental dick the guy is.
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The judicial branch is prosecuting this case.
Biden, as President, sits atop the Executive branch of government.
Trump has worked hard to have the judicial in his pocket, from the Supreme Court to the delaying judge who is protecting him in Miami.
But Biden allows the judicial to run its own affairs, and that is crucial to the functioning of the government system in America. It is gummed up by nefarious actors, the worst of which we’ve seen is Trump.
Edit
And of course this trial is a NY State trial.
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Aren’t you in Maine? Fairly sensible people by and large, and the conservatives tend to skew more to the ‘leave me alone’ flavour rather than the authoritarian. I wonder how much of you sense of the popular mood is really regional in nature.
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If it’s anything to go by, the primaries we just had in Indiana had an assortment of Republicans running for office, and one of the recurring themes seemed to be, “I love Trump the most I do, the others are just RINO…”
The general public are a little less overt, but I expect that closer to the time they will be more open.
Overall, given the advantage the incumbent has, I think Biden will win by a margin. Trump was the incumbent last time, and Biden still handed his arse to him on a plate, hence the insurrection and bogus lawsuits and all the nonsense to try to hang on to power.
Unless Biden has a serious setback - and at his age, it is possible - I think he wins.
Then at that point the other lawsuits can come at Trump and it might just be the case that the man who has avoided justice his whole life will see it catch up to him before he dies.
Anywhere north of Waterville is just about as Red as somewhere like rural Ohio. I work in the northern regions a lot and just driving around you definitely get the sense that there is not as much enthusiasm as there once was for Trump. It won’t really matter in the sense that that vote will still go to Trump - with the other 3 going to Biden - but I think it’s interesting.
There is an old mill near my house that has had a 60ft “TRUMP” banner on it since I moved here in 2020. I realised the other day that it’s gone, a house I ran past that had top-to-bottom Trump flags all over it now just has a single American flag on it. Some people who were pretty vocal in their support of Trump now just don’t seem to talk about politics at all.
These people aren’t going to be voting blue all of a sudden but it wouldn’t surprise me if a decent amount of them just don’t bother to vote at all. It’s obviously not sensible to take anecdotal evidence from a fairly unique part of the country and try and expand the logic nationally but I think when it comes to Maine we are likely to see a deflated voter number on the Republican side. I think those people who felt motivated or empowered by Trump’s “outsider” status (forgiving for the fact that it was always fake) just seem less interested this time around.
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Just want to give a shoutout to Maine. Beautiful country up there. And politically I like the electoral college set up, as it’s not an all-or-nothing approach like the other states. The electoral college votes are split between popular and whoever wins the districts too. It’s a fairer approach.
In the state where I live, Indiana, I would guess the Democrats will probably win around 40% of the Presidential votes, but will get 0/11 of the electoral college votes to show for it.
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Interestingly (or not), Maine has been threatening to switch to winner takes all. That isnt their preference, but Nebraska (the only other state to split their vote) has been trying to push through a move to winner takes all with the presumed effect of taking 1 away from Biden. There is a not unreasonable set of results that would see that change turn the map from a 270-268 Biden win to a 269-269 tie, and then almost certainly flip the result to Trump in the house due to the way ties are broken (rewards winning a greater number of smaller states). Maine making the change would be presumed to throw 1 extra vote to Biden and so is standing on the ready to counter any change NE manages to force through.
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Good example of the kind of pragmatic/aggressive politics the Democrats are accused of not doing enough.
Michael Cohen , star witness for the prosecution , is about to retake the stand for his second day of questioning. After a fairly uneventful first days’ testimony yesterday , today is expected to see him drill down on the absolute crux of the DA’s case ; that Trump personally signed off , during a WH meeting between the two of them , on the plan to disguise the reimbursements to Cohen as payments for legal services.
By all accounts Cohen was calm and composed yesterday during questioning. His ability to remain self-possessed and clear headed today under what is bound to be a ferocious cross-examination will be severely tested . It’s no exaggeration to suggest that the case could hinge on today’s testimony.
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https://x.com/KGreenberg_/status/1790403361839190466
Imagine trying to explain Watergate to a young adult who knows it was an ATG scandal but doesn’t know any details. The scandal of it just wont make any sense.
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But then also this
https://x.com/costareports/status/1790397449007440022
It’s really difficult to explain how big a violation of our pre-2016 norms this is. Trump has broken everything about our public and civic life, but there are no end of people willing to join him for their personal benefit. 8 years ago the idea of the house speaker doing this would have been unthinkable with them understanding that doing so would unleash an enormous shit storm of condemnation that would make their job untenable. Today, this is just covered as “politician says x”
Trump wont serve jail time for this even if found guilty so it feels like he is now more interested in fighting the public perception of the outcome than the outcome itself. Get surrogates to make the trial a circus arguing the charges are political often enough and enough people will downplay them sufficiently to justify still voting for him
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We know now just what Johnson had to promise him to save his own skin a couple of weeks ago.
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Going to be tough to get a conviction if Cohen is your star witness.
I think everyone appreciates that getting any conviction against Trump is challenging given that it only takes a single politically motivated juror to have made it though jury selection. But they case they have put together and presented is incredibly strong and is not dependent on what anyone thinks of Cohen.
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From what I have read it seems pretty weak, but then again who can you trust these days?
20 years ago Republicans called Alan Dershowitz a clueless political hack while Democrats called him a brilliant Harvard law professor with impeccable understanding of the law.
8 years ago Democrats called Alan Dershowitz a clueless political hack while Republicans called him a brilliant Harvard law professor with impeccable understanding of the law.
Pretty much sums it up for me: Disgusting sham politician
“While outside the court defending Trump, Ramaswamy made a bit of a Freudian slip,”
“Let’s pray for our country being stronger on the other side of this disgusting sham politician,” Mr Ramaswamy declared.
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