Syria yes. Russia not so. Russia is already a war economy with a captive market to sell their oil and gas that they can persist. Will the sanctions have an effect ? Yes. But will it be substantial ? No
The start of the discussion was: Can sanctions provoke a regime change? I understand your arguments, but my take is still no. Sanctions can have an effect, and are sometimes unavoidable (like the current ones on Russia), but they won’t provoke a regime change, nor topple a dictator.
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If anything, sanctions on Russia will only make Putin stronger. It just doesn’t work once a country is a particular size.
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Yes, Apartheid rule was more orderly, more effective. And those who came after had no relevant expertise and often bad education.
It was still criminally immoral and had to go. But obviously, both South Africa and Rhodesia were more efficientily ruled. Should that matter ?
I don’t think so. South Africa can became a great democracy, but it is young and it depends on choices they make. It’s a long struggle, a long road, a vast country with a vast population and an awful political culture.
But it’s still a road they have to go down. A Palace of Glass (Apartheid), can be stunning, but if it shatters, it needs to be rebuilt from almost scratch.
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And it’s half hearted sanctions anyway.
Really agree to this. That’s why I find SA rather intriguing.
But the current governments have been really bad.
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Usually not.
Though it did so in SA arguably.
The argument I read was “what does the EU think this can do” with a mocking laughing emoji. I explained what it does, after Ifthikar wrote a post attempting to explain why sanctions are nonsense.
I don’t understand why anyone thinks that sanctions are primarily for regime change. This has never ever been the case.
You’re right. It’s me who started that particular discussion. 
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I wouldn’t be suprised if Mojtaba is really incapacitated (dead or whatever)
I forget the name of the IRGC head. But he’s supposedly the hardliner who is running the show right now.
Let me just provide some evidence of how sanctions can work efficiently. Stuff you people may not see that I know very well.
The feared Russian ballistic missile Iskander did awful damage to Ukraine in the first years of the war. It hit gatherings of troops, training camps, relativelty precise, killing up to a 100 Ukrainians in one blow. It also hammered critical civilian infrastructure.
Today, Iskander is still a threat, but thanks to the sanction regime, critical components in the Iskander missile that were not produced in Russia but in Europe, is impossible to get hold of. The result ? It uses microchips and the like from washing machinces produced in Russia.
What is then the result of this ? The result is that the CEP (which is where the missile is supposed to land) had gone from 5-10 meters to 50, often over 100 meters. It is no longer a precision weapon and this has saved the lives of hundreds of Ukrainians and saved much infrastructure, as multiple videos show Iskander hitting way off mark of target.
This is how sanctions works. It limits.
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The other equation in this is that Russia is really happy to sell their defense secrets to India and China.
There have been talks about the Iskander being made into a JV with india. Manufactured in India. Similar to the brahmos missiles as well.
India won’t have the same problems in sourcing those requirements as what Russia will have. I for one am happy. We’ve got two untrust worthy neighbours in Pakistan and China. To each their own
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Sounds like they used the Chinese made GPS chips instead. I worked in vehicle tracking systems so I am aware of those terminologies. The Chinese made GPS chips often gave those specs but IRL weren’t proven either.
Related but a tangent
15 fucking years too late.
The deal got finally concluded now.
They have used domestic components not designed for precision, as I said.
It’s ad-hoc. They also import from China, but not enough. And their problem is with semi conductors and navigation equippment.
The point isn’t that ALL of the iskanders have 50-100 meter CEP, but most of them. It’s an industrial war, I remind you. Scale is everything and Russia throws Iskander’s at Ukraine every single week.
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A GPS chip wouldn’t cost so much. Screams to me more of Russia wanting to cause collateral damage as well.
Munir and Shariff (the Pakistan army leader and PM) are American bootlickers.
Aside from that , none of the three sides involved in those peace talks really came into that with a clear resolve to talk and get a lasting peace through. And that includes Pakistan.
I don’t understand why you think Pakistan wants this to continue. This is not easy for them exactly (to mediate), given that the warring parties are far from each other and have a very different understanding of both their strenght and where they are in the war.
I have seen nothing that seems to insinuate that Pakistan is not serious. But a mediator is just that, the warring parties must have an interest in peace for it to succeed. And so far, neither party has that. Both are gunning for better terms through fighting.
Likewise, no way in hell would the border conflict between India and Pakistan have resulted in a ceasefire, unless the sides actually wanted to stop firing but were politically unable to do so (since both India and Pakistan needed to “win”). For this, they wanted a mediator. But both sides were interested in a ceasefire and didn’t want war. This is not the case here at all.
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I don’t think Pakistan wants this war to continue. Their economy has been struggling for a while, and it has taken a blow (like most Asian economies) due to the war. However, I myself will always have a cynical view of Pakistan. They are a quasi/shadow military dictatorship with ISI meddling in everything.
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