Milner (36)
Henderson (31)
Thiago (30)
Fabinho (28)
Oxlade-Chamberlain (28)
Keita (27)
Curtis (21)
Morton (19)
Elliott (18)
Can/should we add more midfielders without off-loading some first?
Won’t be here come summer, or at least in Milner’s case on much reduced terms, maybe even a dual coaching/playing role.
Keita is also at risk if he doesn’t sign a new contract.
1 Like
This is key. If we don’t shift one or two then we don’t really have much room in the squad. If rumours are true and Milner is retained that’s one less spot available that we all perhaps envisaged would be. If Carvalho is indeed coming in then there’s one already added to the squad but you wouldn’t expect him to go straight into the team.
Question is, will someone give us enough money to make it worth selling Ox and/or Keita or are we looking at a Can/Lallana situation where we’re better off keeping them for their last year and then letting them walk on a free?
I like both players but I think if you were building a pecking order right now, Keita would be above Ox. Unfortunately I think Ox has really struggled since returning from his injury and he’s just not going to get a run of games to play himself back into any kind of form. The chances is he getting are pretty underwhelming at the moment too. If I was picking one of the two to move on I think it would be best for us and Ox if he went somewhere he’s going to get more game time. What we’d get for him im not sure but I can’t see it being more than the £15m-£20m ball park currently.
2 Likes
Haidara’s a bang average midfielder from what I’ve seen, definitely not one I’d be looking at.
The BL and Leipzig especially always seem to have mediocre players who are statistical outliers.
A lot of these players have the hallmark of another Soumare. He was extremely highly rated last year, went to Leicester, turns out he’s a bit shit. Not sure Kamara would be being mentioned if he wasn’t free.
4 Likes
My thing with Ox is I still don’t see where he fits into this team, there are glimpses of a player there but very infrequently shown. He was a player who thrived on transition and bar a few times in a game we simply don’t play that way anymore. I’d expect he wants to move on more than we are happy to let him leave.
Whereas Keita despite his injury problems comes back into the team and just slots right back in there like he’s never been away.
So if you are keeping 1 player who has injury problems it’s Keita every day of the week.
With some back of a fag packet maths, Ox sold for £15mil and losing his £120k a week wages and the 1 slot in the squad = Fee + Wages easily covered for Carvalho another home grown player, with more than some to spare to go towards contract renewals.
4 Likes
As others have alluded to, Ox is the one who’s time is likely coming to an end.
In terms of brining others in and letting some leave, I’d be happy enough if it was only Ox (assuming Milner on for another year) from your list leaving. I’m not ready to give up on Naby. But I think there’s room for a couple coming in and us losing (and not replacing) one of the front men (Taki/Div).
This next 18 months is going to be important for Curtis. We lack anyone in the mid-20’s in the squad. He has a chance to grow into his mid-20s as one of the key men.
They’ve now begun to destroy even Bayern from the inside by selling them their players.
2 Likes
I see Keita staying but Ox being the one pushed out of the door. he was somewhat unremarkable against Norwich and THAT free kick was shocking. He doesn’t have the confidence about him anymore. I like him as a squad member but I cannot imagine his wages are worth taking game time from the junior players like Jones and Elliot.
Milner is just a machine. He scored well in every department without excelling at any one.
Worth mentioning as well that Thiago blew everyone out of the water. He scored over 1000pts in this heading system while Rodri, who finished 2nd, had less than 900. Rodri was closer to 50th than he was to 1st.
4 Likes
I want to develop a way to reduce scores in the French and German leagues as their players always have inflated figures. Not sure on how to do it though without it just being arbitrary and meaningless.
For example I could reduce their stats by 10% but why would 10% be the total? Or 5% or 15%… I wonder how they do it at the professional level.
2 Likes
Having said that stats are exaggerated in the German league. I finished my CF rankings last night. I’m guessing many would expect Haaland to top those charts but… Well, it’s going to be surprising for many.
2 Likes
Am guessing Salah scores higher?
My stat comp is Firmino and Jota, I left Salah and Mane off because they play primarily out wide. Wide forwards do a very different job for us so I’m grading them separately (and yes Salah is phenomenal). For CF, Jota and Firmino are actually remarkably similar statistically even though stylistically they are so different.
Both Haaland and Mbappe score relatively low on this scale, largely due to neither of them because interested in “defending from the front” which both Jota and Firmino excel at.
Obviously in real life Liverpool’s system would change to accommodate the skills and flaws of Mbappe and Haaland but I’m just approaching this differently and trying to find players who fit into what we do now, rather than players who would require us to rethink everything.
4 Likes
Maybe keep a correction factor or a compensation factor , scoring is much more easier in the german leagues while it’s tougher in the italian leagues. I do think you can arrive at different correction factors though…for both offensive / defensive…
You could even go deeper and give a club weightage. Someone scoring for Juventus in Italy would probably have less weightage given than someone who’s scoring the same number of goals for Milan or any other team…
x1 for EPL
0.90 for La Liga , German Leagues
0.75 for French
Just got on and read through the recent posts. Nice work Sweeting.
There is one name in your top ten that intrigues me, and is a player I’ve talked up before to a couple mates, Teun Koopmeiners. While not what I’d term a “dynamic” player, he does many things very well. He has decent size, a good eye for a pass, and ability to make those through balls. Has some defensive nous, and, I believe, could become a solid deep sitting mid.
Liked him at Alkmaar, and he seems to have taken his game up a notch at Atalanta. They play an attacking open style at Atalanta that may help him adapt to Klopp’s style more quickly. Think he will be out of contract 2023. Wouldn’t cost a fortune either.
4 Likes
Defensive Midfielders - Stat Analysis
For defensive midfield I used Fabinho as my obvious stylistic comparison. His three most outstanding qualities (statistically) are interceptions, tackle per game and pass completion. In order the qualify for the “deep dive” a player must finish in the top 25 after having these stats analysed.
I’m not a fan of using tackles per game but it is what it is - Fabinho manages to shine in that category and so his ‘successor’ probably should too. The deep dive then expands out to be a bit more generalised and players are sorted based on 11 categories.
As discussed in this thread I’d love to develop a reliable system to negate some of the overachievement seen in the weaker leagues in France and Germany. I’ll have to have a proper think about it.
The number in brackets is their total score based on the formula. I am also aware that some of these players are not regularly playing at DM - this is just a theoretical look at players based on stats (and all of them are at least central midfielders).
Here’s top 25…
25. Jean Lucas - 23 - Monaco (462)
24. Mahdi Camara - 23 - Saint-Etienne (545)
23. Maxence Caqueret - 22 - Lyon (628)
22. Bruno Guimaraes - 24 - Newcastle (629)
21. Hugo Magnetti - 23 - Brest (650)
20. Jakub Kiwior - 22 - Spezia (660)
19. Yves Bissouma - 25 - Brighton (662)
18. Samuele Ricci - 20 - Torino (676)
17. Djibril Sow - 24 - Frankfurt (680)
16. Nicolas Dominguez - 23 - Barcelona (690)
15. Lucien Agoume - 20 - Brest (691)
14. Rodrigo Bentacur - 24 - Tottenham (698)
13. Niklas Dorsch - 24 - Gent (720)
12. Kouadio Kone - 20 - Monchengladbach (727)
11. Declan Rice - 23 - West Ham (728)
10. Fran Beltran - 23 - Celta Vigo (733)
9. Ismael Bentacur - 24 - Milan (735)
8. Boubacar Kamara - 22 - Marseille (748)
7. Jean Onana - 22 - Bordeaux (748)
6. Santiago Ascacibar - 24 - Hertha (762)
5 Salih Ozcan - 24 - Koln (768)
Ozcan is poor in possession and can’t offer much in terms of progressive passing but he has excellent defensive numbers.
4 Wilfred Ndidi - 25 - Leicester (772)
Another pretty limited player with off the charts defensive performance, possibly more interesting as plays for a struggling Leicester. One of the worst progressive players to make the top 25 however.
3 Cheick Doucoure - 22 - Lens (776)
The only non-Liverpool player to make the top 5 for both CM and DM. Doucoure performs well all around but doesn’t have good numbers aerially, something I think Liverpool value in that deep midfield role.
2. Azor Matusiwa - 23 - Reims (795)
Can’t say I’d ever heard of this guy before doing this exercise but that is what is fun about it. Matusiwa is a solid footballer who rarely gets dispossessed and has put up strong defensive numbers.
1 Aurelian Tchouameni - 22 - Monaco (895)
Blowing everyone else out of the water (including Fabinho for now) is the much coveted Tchouameni. His expansive passing range and high progressive stats explain the loer than average pass completion while he thrives in defensive duties and is dominant in the air. Main critique is that is one of the most dispossessed players on the entire list, something he would have to clean up in the Premier League.
Liverpool Player Rankings
Thiago Alcantara - 2 (854)
Fabinho - 3 (814)
Jordan Henderson - 22 (629)
6 Likes
Don’t get to watch much Bundesliga but caught my eye against Bayern was really impressive. Didn’t know how young and new to the side he was till after looking him up.
1 Like
Dorsch is someone who looked competent , I would like to see his aerials and pass %age.
Same goes with Bentacur.
Matsusiwa’s stats seem to make him out to be very competent. Also, how does Camavinga rate among these lot ?It’s probably telling that there aren’t too many Real Madrid players in this list.
And while I do recognize that there have been players who’ve done well coming from the french leagues , Fabinho for one makes the cut immediately. Is there a correlation somewhere that DM’s and CM’s seem to find it easier to make the switch from the french leagues whereas there are quite a lot of Forwards who seem to be suffering.
Also the Juve duo of McKennie and Locatelli , how do their stats turn up.
Dorsch’s worst aspect is his possession stats - he ranks in the 53rd percentile for pass completion while his aerials rank only in the 27th percentile.
Bentancur rates much higher in possession (75th percentile) and aerially he in the 61st percentile so slightly above average.
Camavinga was unranked due to lack of playing time. If he was to be included he would be 48th.
Locatelli comes in at 76th, McKinnie 120th.
2 Likes
Wow. Thats quite revealing , apart from rendering scouts mostly useless in the process. There is no “he looks good per the eye” & “experience of the said scout” etc etc arguments to make anymore.
Not if the data doesnt back the scout up.
As mentioned , if you could give a correction factor taking into account the a) the relative strength of the league b) the play style of the club / manager (A DM who does well with Jose for instance getting less weightage than someone doing well under Klopp , naturally an attacking player under klopp/guardiola wont have the same weightage for his performances)…
You could have a serious scoutlist on your hands which is probably there in most analytics software that clubs do use.
Someone like a Diaz for example would have to have his stats be so far better than the stats that a very good portugese league winger has for liverpool to make the move.