I respectfully disagree. The favourites will be Man C, Man U, Chelsea and Us in that order. We don’t know how our injured players will come back, one of our most important players has fallen off a cliff, and there has been significant drops in form throughout the squad. The idea that all that will be solved by August is optimistic to say the least. I know we all want to be positive, but sometimes it’s necessary to be realistic. There are a number of variables, which may change the equation. If VVD comes back strong, if we find a top class, injury free partner for him, if we strengthen midfield and solve the Firmino conundrum, our odds will shorten, but as we stand, all those remain hurdles.
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Most places have Man City comfortable favourites with United slightly shorter odds than us and Chelsea slightly longer.
A lot to happen between now and the start of next season and as we’ve seen from the past two seasons, a significant injury or two early on can derail a challenge.
What the odds are really makes no difference, it’s what happens on the pitch that you’re judged on. Had we been at 75% of what we’d been for the previous two seasons we’d be clear of United and pushing City close.
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At this early stage, before we have seen any transfer business, and before we know the state of players returning from injury, I would say Man City are favorites for the title next season, then us and Chelsea are behind them, but at a similar level, and Man Utd will be behind in fourth.
If Man Utd had a better manager and a better recruitment strategy, they would be higher, but Ole brings them down. Sort of like Lampard at Chelsea, only under Tuchel they are seeing what a better manager can do.
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If Chelsea or United finish above us for the next 2/3 seasons then yes they are better. One poor season doesn’t mean shit. When Leicester won the league we all knew they weren’t the best in England. Let’s see next season
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It’s easy to look at the table now and think we’re miles off challenging again. We’re not really, it’s a false position.
We were top at Christmas and eased through our CL group. It’s been shit since then but we haven’t suddenly lost all of our quality overnight.
Small margins have gone against us. We won a lot of tight games last year, we’ve dropped points in a lot of tight games this. It will only take minor improvements to spin that back around.
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Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that so many are optimistic. I wish I could see it that way too. Unfortunately, for the reasons stated above, I think it’s going to be really tough next season unless something radical changes. We’ve lost momentum, and that’s really hard to get back as we have seen. I hope you’re all right and I’m wrong.
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For all the focus it gets, how often does an isolated transfer window really tip the scales in the next title race? Seriously, when was the last time a team went out and bought players in the summer and those players were the main difference between them winning the title or not?
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Setting aside your point, which I agree with, maybe Kanté in 2016/17?
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Funny how much stock we put into projecting what a summer window might do for a club.
United spent £70m on van de Beek, Telles and Diallo who have contributed almost nothing this campaign. Cavani, who was very much an afterthought and a much derided “panic” deal has come good just at the right time for them.
Dias has been huge for City but if they hadn’t bought him and instead had played Laporte and Ake more often, would they be that far off where they are now? Ake and Torres cost £60m and have barely played given their relative fees.
Chelsea spent a fortune. Replacing Kepa has been significant for them but are they that much better with Chilwell, Ziyech Werner and Havertz than they would have been if they’d had Tuchel in from the summer and had given more game time to Alonso, Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi and Abraham?
We need to do business because we do have concerns about long term recovery from serious injuries, a key player leaving and an aging front line in need of fresh options but the key getting back to form will be Klopp, injury returns and getting fans back in the ground.
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Yeah, that’s a great shout, but I think the summer after leading up to City’s 100 point season they brought in Silva, Ederson, Laporte and Walker, all of whom played a big part in that season.
However, you go back for 20 years and the vast majority of the time when a side improved to win a title the improvement will have come from some combination of a return to form/fitness of existing players, players bought in previous windows finally growing into the side and establishing themselves (Henry and Ronaldo), or just damn luck.
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Disappointed that you don’t think the signing of Sepp van den Berg pushed us over the line.
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He was a great influence on the training ground. Kept Virgil on his toes.
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Don’t understand the doom and gloom. Even from a purely law of averages perspective, we drastically overperformed last year. We probably won an additional 10-12 points we will really shouldn’t have. This year we are probably about 10-12 points shy of what we really should have. It isn’t a conspiracy, it’s just two bad data points in consecutive seasons.
We don’t need a major overhaul, we need to tweak and adapt. I imagine we will add some players and sell some players. It won’t be drastic but it will be enough. Lets ride the wave
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So you’re saying we need to get our recruitment right this summer so we can win the league again in 2022/23?
In all seriousness I kind of see what you are saying but the summer we added Alisson etc. we won the CL and pretty much any other year would have win (and in most cases by a long way) the league before maintaining that level for the following season. I know it doesn’t technically fit your parameters but come on surely that’s just a technicality?
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Momentum doesn’t exist.
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Alisson and VVD were very consequential. I get what you mean, a club doesn’t rise and fall on one window, but if we sign two players who make that sort of impact on the first team as the ones mentioned, I think we are fighting it out with Man City for the title.
Edit: VVD and Alisson six months apart.
Still, my point is, a decent window could make the difference between us fighting hard for the title and being more of a solid top four outfit.
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We can throw Salah, Shaqiri and Fabinho into the list as well.
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I hope that 2020/21 is to Liverpool what 2019/20 was to Man City. I don’t expect it, though, not just because of Man City’s strength but also because Man United and especially Chelsea look much stronger than before, but I still hope.
Although Klopp won’t spend as much as Guardiola, I think he will take a similar approach of getting necessary quality from two or three new players and restoring the form of ones already there. Could do with Jones being Liverpool’s reply to Foden…
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I don’t think we need massive investment to be contenders again next season.
One of our major problem is that players like Origi, Shaqiri, Takumi, Naby, and AOC contributed nothing. This meant we not only lacked tactical flexibility, but we also ran the regulars to ground.
The other issue is off-course the injury of VVD, Gomez, and Matip.
So if we can add just one quality player in each of defense, midfield, and attack; we would be OK.
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Do you think it wise we go into the next campaign without cover(s) at full back? I guess if we get VVD and Gomez back, fully functional, then maybe another central defender will be sufficient… but would still be a risk.
I agree the midfield needs a bit of a think and a striker - possibly.
My priority would be a midfielder, then a central defender (assuming VVD and Gomez are good to go) and then a “striker”… I think two quality buys and we are there or there abouts. Even w/o any buys, we have a pretty competitive squad - as long as VVD, Gomez and Hendo return fully fit of course.
Additionally I think the squad would benefit from AOC and Keita moving on. I wouldn’t look to replace, just sell.