I doubt it. Don’t think the USA will risk a global conflict over it. The Chinese know that and are waiting to strike.
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So it will be like Austria???
What will be the tipping point? Korea? Japan? Myanmar?
Yes, Austria is a good analogy. It can be justified as being a natural part of China just as Austria and Germany were justified as being part of a liguistic and cultural whole.
Yeah, that’s a valid comparison I think.
And for the record, I’d be very surprised if the US risked a war with China about this issue. So, the only conclusion is that Taiwan will eventually be re-united with China. It’s only a matter of time for these poor sods I’m afraid…
But China won’t want to then invade other countries. That’s where the comparison with the nazis goes amiss imo. They don’t talk about needing more ‘Lebensraum’ for themselves. Generally, while a horrible regime, they aren’t as nuts as Hitler and co.
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First, I want to offer you a glimmer of hope. I don’t think China will invade Taiwan before its Type 003 carrier becomes operational.
Now comes the bad news. Imagine how much the Koreans and Japanese would be shitting if China invades, occupies, and annexes Taiwan without much ado from the Free World. Would they have too much appetite to refuse any unfair advances (non-military) from China. China will enjoy favorable strategic and trade terms without firing a shot.
Then, there is that other Korea and Myanmar.
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Try telling that to the Tibetans.
In general you’re right. They wouldn’t make the same mistakes as the Nazis because their approach is much more long-term and measured. They know that they can control neighbouring states without direct invasion, but if a conflict arises with Korea or Japan and the US has been shown to be toothless, they have the means to get their way, either militarily or by other methods.
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Which is possibly more worrying. Hitler was thankfully utterly insane and ultimately got it wrong. Eastern front.
China don’t seem to be the kind of country that makes massive errors.
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Yes, long term China is a greater threat to democracy, but nobody seems to realise it.
Surely it needn’t come to a full on conflict between China and the U.S.? I think a show of strength and support by the U.S. and allies should deter China from launching an invasion.
Is there the political will in the west to stand up to China over Taiwan?
They have a strong case that the island is part of China and I can’t see the US being willing to sacrifice lives in order to defend it.
But US and allies do. Every time our countries decided to intervene, support puppet governments, invade, etc, those destabilized the regions, caused unending chaos and suffering. The people ended up suffered worse than ever before.
True, that’s what they increasingly do already. The more their power grows, the more their influence.
I take your point about the Tibetans. However, I still can’t see them wanting to invade big countries with different cultures like Korea or Japan. They know that it would bring them more hassle than profit.
Yeah, his impatient madness brought him to fall in the end. I think comparing China with the Stalinist USSR is more appropriate. They show the same kind of prudent ruthlessness.
Through no other fault than the Western states, who allowed this situation to arise in the first place.
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Well, after the soft-cocks in NATO and the UN let Putin walk into Crimea and annex part of another country, what’s to stop China from taking taking Taiwan?
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
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Yep, zero. We talk about democracy and self-determination, yet we don’t officially recognize Taiwan and have an official one china policy. You have to consider what the stakes would need to be for us to adopt a clear act of confrontation over something China was doing. There is nothing about our attitude towards Taiwan that suggests their Sovereignty is high enough stakes.
I think Taiwanese independence could probably be bolstered if the dropped claims to the mainland, and possibly even the ROC name and just adopted themselves as the country of Taiwan. Maybe the PRC would back down then if they were treated as the official government of the mainland. But for me, without that, the only question over their annexation/restoration of the island is not what everyone else will do about it, but why PRC is taking so long to act on what they’ve wanted to do for 70 years.
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What exactly could have been done to prevent China’s irresistible rise?
How do you think when the West kept on playing in their own sandbox, freezing others out from their big boys club (Exceptionalism: whether it’s colour of the skin, religious believe or political structures, oil wealth, just to name a few)? How would the “frozen out” countries react in a natural way? The way forward is not about disagreement on what are listed above, but co-operation. Our ideals and exceptionalism from the west are square pegs into round holes.
You say China dont want to invade other countries, but the way they are creating islands in the South China Sea and deploying military on these islands hints that this may not be entirely the case.
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example? curious…
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So from a strategic perspective, China claiming rights over the entire South China Sea basically cripples Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam and Brunei with Thailand, Malaysia Singapore, Mayanmar and possibly Indonessia being massively effected with lose of fishing rights, but China has already tried to put military bases on several, and to be honest, If I was any SE Asian country, I would be shitting bricks if China was massing troops anywhere outside of their borders
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