Ding Dong.....the US Politics Thread (Part 2)

Better late than never … if it happens.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/24/ukraine-aid-bill-easter-mccaul-00148727

Wow.

https://x.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1771946545266483679?s=20

For context, this isn’t a criticism of the hiring of her by NBC news as such, but for the decision to invite a known liar, election denier, MAGA leader on as a guest to NBC’s flagship news program the same week it was announced she was now becoming a new contributor. His point was a bit more nuanced than saying “we should not have hired her”, and more that there was zero journalistic value of having a known liar who now claims she lied because it was in the interest of the people who paid her come on and do a 180 on those claims now she is being paid to do by someone else. But it is still an absolutely stinging rebuke from the man who used to sit in the moderator chair and saw the reputation of the program crumble under his stewardship - meaning, he’s fine with pathetic softball interviews with no journalistic value with lying liars he knew are lying to him. So for him to get wound up like this and publicly call out his bosses is a big deal.

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The ‘brains’ behind Trump’s coup attempt discovers that illegal actions do have consequences , at least for some.

“Eastman conspired with President Trump to obstruct a lawful function of the government of the United States; specifically, by conspiring to disrupt the electoral count on January 6, 2021,” Roland ruled.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/27/john-eastman-disbarred-00149468

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The perfect distillation of modern American politics

https://x.com/MalloryMcMorrow/status/1773324424504111303?s=20

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Funny and tragic simultaneously.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4574559-warren-block-sale-f-15s-israel/

Warren says she would move to block sale of F-15s to Israel

Haven’t heard about this lady since 2020. Thought she has either retired or got defeated.

She’s been around; just doesn’t get much airtime from the media as she’s usually not ‘newsworthy enough’ ie. Controversial/crazy. Ironically standing up to Israel may actually be a way for many moderates to actually get some coverage.

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https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/gop-fiscal-irresponsibility

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Textbook republican fiscal responsibility

https://x.com/crampell/status/1775498486240129112?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g

Spend more money by making a program harsher and worse and claim it a success because freeloaders cannot access it

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Republicans tying themselves in knots over abortion. Now that their Führer has seen the polls and come out against a total ban, they are faced with the fact it’s a bit more of a complicated issue than they thought. What will the fundamentalists say?

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These decisions are awful for women and I don’t understand the motivations of the GOP really. They may well be handing the election to the Democrats, 2022 (and subsequent smaller elections) have shown that abortion is a massive issue for most voters and one they are very willing to turn out in force for. Anti-abortion bills are deeply unpopular even in places like Alabama.

While the GOP could shout about abortion with no action it didn’t hurt their vote but now they’ve actually banned it it is hurting them in every election. Trump (or at least his team) see that, many individual Republicans see it and are distancing themselves from the pro-life message, but then things like this happen in Arizona - a key battleground state - and its very possible that the Republicans just handed Democrats a major win in a state that can go either way with just a few thousand votes.

Not complaining with the outcome if it does go that way, of course, but I am sorry for the people it is hurting right now because if these fucking religious fanatics.

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It is critical to understand how massive the abortion issue has been for the process of the radicalization of the Republicans. For two generations, it has been the critical wedge issue they have used to hammer away at the center - and in so doing basically drive the old ‘country club’ Republicans into extinction. It is at the root of the Tea Party, and it unleashed the forces that became Trump. Trump may now realize he has a millstone around his neck, but he has served his purpose. The fifty year fight to gain control of the Supreme Court has been won.

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Democrats will win a lot power behind being the party that will protect abortion, hopefully.

However I am also kind of worried about them abusing that power. Not getting national laws, or even state laws through the legislatures, and relying on “You’ll need to vote Blue to protect women’s rights because there is nothing to stop them banning them if they get into power”.

If they pass legal protections for women they will probably fear having no real unifying message for the election after that. I hate it but I feel like they may intentionally make no progress, at least in battleground states.

Trump now backpeddling furiously from abortion, and I am not sure he can get away with it at all. His position is not seen as credible, but it is alienating what had been a massive part of his base. They don’t have anywhere to go, certainly won’t hop to Biden. However, demotivating them doesn’t look like it will be a successful formula.

Trump is not a true believer on this issue. He has flip-flopped over the years between pro-life and pro-choice, and in his personal life I think I read he has paid people off to have an abortion so as to not father more children with more women.

The convergence of interest with the anti-abortion bloc was when Trump formed a hard right Supreme Court that struck down Roe v Wade. (Still not happy with the great RBG for staying on too long, and perhaps Sotomyer might need to learn from that. Also the Republicans themselves refused to do business in putting in a Democrat choice because an election was coming up in only nine months, and that won’t be forgotten when there exists an opportunity for payback!)

Anyway, with Roe v Wade struck down, Trump wanted his victory lap, but he didn’t want to deal with the implications.

The anti-abortion bloc would love to see a federal ban, but Trump knows that will kill him in the polls, so he is trying to bump it to the various states to make it a states rights issue.

But that isn’t very joined up, as some states e.g. what we just saw in AZ, will do crazy things that will cost a lot of votes. And in other states that are traditionally red, the surprising factor (to Trump at least) is that the Republicans are losing votes on this issue as the majority of voters want access to abortion.

As ever, Trump hasn’t thought it through properly, and he can’t just wish for the issue to go away.

To the degree he speaks up, it demonstrates a clear gap between his position and the position of much of his base, with many extreme right religious types being voters almost on the basis of this one issue.

So Trump is in a pickle.

I expect him to wriggle through it, and I expect the cognitive dissonance to continue with his base, who have been all too ready to turn a blind eye to this monster. So far we have seen millions of conservatives shrug at the man who has five children over three marriages, has paid off porn stars, and who openly boasted over his power to sexually assault women. And the list is 50x longer than this.

If the Democrats play their cards right, it could be the one clear issue that wins them the election.

Never underestimate the US press’ ability to fuck up coverage and give him cover though.

The general coverage of his announcement earlier in the week was pathetic. The median piece gave him credit for a position he didn’t take, and completely ignored that even if he had said what they reported he said, like no other politician ever “Trump makes policy statement” is not something that can be covered in the context of “this is what Trump will do”. There was no way to cover that statement other than “man who created abortion nightmare accepts that states will bring in draconian limitations” and it was really only the partisan new media places who covered it like that. For people who approach all news with an arms length perspective of “I’m a reasonable person why are both parties so extreme”, the core Trump voter, that plays directly into them giving him credit. The likely result is punishing the GOP and voting for Trump.

Case in point

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Something else to worry about…

Cometh the hour … cometh Mike Johnson !

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/17/politics/mike-johnson-foreign-aid-analysis/index.html

My current conspiracy theory is there are those in the GOP who think it is good electoral politics for them to oust Johnson and turn the house over to Hakeem Jeffries. If they do that they will then play up Washington dysfunction and point to the Dems being in sole control of government and allow Trump to run on that. Johnson knows he is dead man walking so just doing what he can now unweighted by the fight to try to appease his caucus in an attempt to keep his job.