So, not remotely engaging on the points being raised. Why are you like this? What do you get out of it?
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Thatās probably one of the many reasons why Trump doesnāt like drag queens
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US inflation up, somehow unexpectedly (hint: tariffs). That in turn has pushed Treasury yields - and produced some unwelcome news for Rachel Reeves. My alert went off on UK gilt a little while ago, jumped 10 basis points almost immediately with the American announcement
The bad news for the US is that core inflation moved more than the index that includes food and energy.
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Presumably because US base rates would need to rise?
Treasury yields jumped in trading at the same time, so yes - internally the question at the Federal Reserve just became ādo we need to increase ratesā, Warren and Trump notwithstanding.
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Politics has morphed away from economic issues, at least here in America, towards identity politics. And much of the far left progressive identity politics started here in America. I travel internationally, including to Germany, and my impression is that on identity politics, the American left is more left than anywhere else.
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Sad to hear how far our left is here in the USā¦until they start moving back to the middle, they wonāt win another election. Itās a breath of fresh air having uncle Don back in the office. Love to see it.
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The thing isā¦ that all the aluminum hats are unfortunately getting more expensive as well now.
Sad
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Agreed that a lot of that identity politics stuff originally comes from the US. But youāve clearly never met real far left Germansā¦
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Shoot, ready, aim.
They are going to perform an evaluation of the agencyās performance in the areas these staff were responsible for, but only after the people have been let go.
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Maybe, maybe not. The real Fed Funds rate is still 1.25-1.5%. Itās averaged around 1.2% going back 65 years.
The backup in the long end reflects what I believe is an ongoing adjustment in the yield curve. Inflation is likely to be higher than the market expects and a 5 handle on the 10Y is probably correct.
https://x.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1889672121845948457
The prospect of NATO membership was one of the most valuable points of leverage Ukraine had in getting a negotiated settlement with Russia. A senior US official publicly declaring it isnāt on the table is a huge win for Russia.
As Magnus said yesterday, it is pretty naive to think this adminstration is going to be pro Ukraine just because some of them came in with prior pro-ukraine positions. I mean, Rubio used to be one of the biggest boosters of USAIDās role in combatting China and the regimes we dont like in latin America
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I donāt think the Federal Reserve is necessarily rushing to increase their rate - but the data they do have is suggesting the opposite of the move they are being pressured to make.
What happens to major exchange rates is going to be the interesting question. CAD/USD wonāt tell very much, because there are other concerns putting volatility into that, but Euro/GBP to USD both bear watching.
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The Fed is definitely on hold. Iāve never seen a market more wrong than the Fed funds futures markets. You could have made a fortune over the past 25 years trading the short end by learning against whatever the futures market was doing.
If only I had been a prop trader
Thanks for stating the above, but I still donāt understand. Surely, there is middle ground between a total open border policy (which was never Bidenās nor Harris policy, nor is the popeās agenda) and a policy of deporting tens of thousands of people, potentially millions of them as Trump says?
This black-and-white rhetoric is tiresome, as it is far away from any truth.
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It is hard to make sense of the yield curve right now. It looks normal-ish starting 3 years out, but is not well behaved at all until there. Plus there is the weirdness of the 30-year having a significantly lower yield than the 20-year. I have to think there must be a liquidity issue across those two, donāt know how else to explain that.
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This video is worth a watch. I now understand that mothers there protested against the fact that, for example, certain books/authors (minorities or gay) were now banned in military schools for the kids over seas, libraries were closed, etc.
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This is the bit I donāt understand, because some of the biggest critics Iāve heard of āidentity politicsā have actually been on the left, Iām not sure if you would describe them as far-left, but certainly to the left of the centrist parties.
The argument being that the use of minority issues have been used to marginalize working-class voters. They have then been preyed on by far-right groups who use anti-black, anti-muslim, anti-LGBT rhetoric as the blame group for the genuine problems they face.
Traditionally, in the UK, what you would class as āprogressiveā legislation has come from backbenchers - often opposition ones.
Obviously the US is a completely different setup politically.
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Iām not anti immigrant. I am an immigrant. I hire immigrants. Iām a Canadian who has lived in London and now lives in Florida. But immigration has gotten out of control, and itās hurting the most vulnerable.
I have a brother who is handicapped and has lived on the street at various times in his life. He doesnāt work and is on social welfare. Weāve helped him.
Up until a few years, he was able to afford a simple but clean low rent apartment in Calgary. But Trudeau has let millions of immigrants into the country when there already was a housing and infrastructure shortage. His rent skyrocketed and he can no longer afford to live on his on. This is happening all around the western world. It is beyond galling that the government spends 3-4x more on foreigners than they do on citizens.
The Pope says we have to help immigrants because theyāre vulnerable. Well, yes, some genuinely are. But many if not most are economic migrants.
Who the is speaking for my brother and other vulnerable citizens like him? Mass migration hurts the poorest. I donāt blame the immigrants. I blame the governments that have allowed this to happen.
This is why people are enraged. This is why right wing populism is growing. Iām not a right wing populist but I get it.
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