Cease Fire in effect thankfully. Not that it solves anything remotely, but it will let humans breathe at least.
I have followed the latest round of fighting, and the provocations that lead to it, very closely, just chosen to not write about it here but on my facebook page instead of here. I was worried I would be bogged down in arguments if i posted regularly about it here and I made a conscious choice that I would want to spend time on it as it would be mentally taxing.
Regardless, no one won this round except probably Netanyahu who now probably survives as Prime Minister despite Yair Lapiid’s mandate to form a gov, civilians suffered, particularity Palestinians and they are going to suffer for a long time with the after effects, both socioeconomic and purely social. Hamas degraded, but far from defeated (not that the Israeli political leadership wanted to destroy them, as they serve Israeli Realpolitik interests well, given that the West Bank and Gaza is divided; and I smirk at naive pro-Israelis that thinks Netanyahu even considered going all in to actually destroy Hamas, as these people don’t understand the Grassclipping doctrine at all). Israel establishes deterrence with Gaza (maybe), but like one of the better Israeli journalists say, lost it in Lebanon (there were 2 rocket attacks from Lebanon during this conflict and all the IDF did was shell the launch positions a bit, which is far from the usual targeted bombardments they dish out). Iron Dome very effective, probably around 90-95 % effective like IDF claims, judging from OSINT sources. Rafael is in that regard a “winner” here I guess. However, IRGC and Hezbollah know has the data they wants, and Iron Dome showed weaknesses during sustained barrages, where several rockets tended to slip through. Hamas metro is probably devastated, but still some what functional despite Israeli triumphalistic claims, given that they managed to fire more than 400 rockets now on the final day of conflict. And IDF desperately tried to assassinate Mohammad al Deif, but failed more than 3 times according to Israeli journos.
All of this, all of it, was fucking unnecessary and just bloody shame with no winner and only losers, except maybe the political fox Benjamin Netanyahu. And it is my opinion that the Israeli leadership, who had good intel that Hamas would fire rockets if they cracked down hard on the Sheik Jarra demonstrators, sent in riot police and threw shock grenades on people who were no threat inside the Al Aqsa mosque, triggering what they wanted to trigger. The entire story from then has been bloody predictable and was like watching a train crash in super slow motion. But now Netanyahu may get to serve another period as PM instead of facing corruption charges, so well done to him…
But thankfully there is a Cease Fire in effect and holding now and that’s all I want to say now.
Edit: Oh yeah, now they are going to probably bomb an Iranian target in Syria in a few days to punish the Iranian drone incursion, easier that than bombing Lebanese territory and triggering a Hezbollah response, which the Israelis won’t dare at this moment in time (when I say dare, I don’t mean in an existential way, of course Israel could wage war if it really had to against Hezbollah, but it really, really doesn’t want to is my point here).