This photos is a bit of “Hmmm, why are we seeing this” and it is kind of note worthy. Such pictures are not taken and released on a mere whim or by mistake (usually, anyway):
At least they said hello:
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1468245172479827969
A very interesting thread. I won’t post it all, it’s in development, and you can click on it and read it yourself:
It’s interesting Putin is going to India for a visit, particularly in the context of Ukraine. India shops with both vendors and securing some sort of a neutral position from India, over a potential invasion, or at least seeing what its position would be, would go some ways to derisking the invasion. China presumably won’t care too much and so it will really only be the US and Europe that would wield any sort of opposition - though obviously less meaningful if the rest of the world doesn’t care…
Most everyone knew this, but it’s good that it is out in the open to avoid miscalculations by hopeful parties that may want to gamble in a high stakes game. With this in the open, politicians in Ukraine won’t gamble, which is good.
India will stay out of any conflict in Ukraine. It will probably not stay out of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan since it has itself outstanding territorial disputes with China (so will likely resort to sanctions). But it will not anger Russia. I am pretty confident of this.
My point I guess was that there are a whole bunch of joint activities and ongoing purchases (by India) that if Russia new it was going to keep, petty sanctions by the West would matter less. China would stay out of it and carry on dealing with Russia, as would most South American and African countries - ergo invasion of Ukraine is a GO. If it came down to it if Russia invaded, there is little to nothing the west could do - they would not go to war - so it’d be sanctions…
Today’s videos from Russia show a lot of BUKs arriving on a train at the station in Vorenezh:
Artillery and logistics at the roadside:
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1468637241161486342
Vladimir Putin putting on even more pressure on Ukraine and it’s friends. He did say recently that he (Putin) views it to be very useful to ramp up pressure on Ukraine.
A truly fascinating and interesting, though a bit speculative, thread. Open tweet to read it. It is somewhat long, so I will not manually upload this time:
Honestly I dont think anyone will militarily look to stop a Russian occupation of Ukraine beyond supplying arms and aid. Biden can posture all he wants but he just took America out of Afghanistan it would be bizarre to drag the country back into a war this time with a nuclear power.
Even on Taiwan it’s just a giant game of chicken. I cant imagine the sentiment in the West supports participation in a Great Game thousands of miles away.
As for China, no one in Chinas immediate vicinity will support a war against that country unless theres a guarantee that the CCP will be destroyed. America is a dubious ally which will eventually leave the region whereas China knows how to hold a grudge.
New Zealand - the best country in the world
Mmmm… the last time a country tried to use prohibition as a means of moral advancement, it ended up in total disaster. Will things be different in this case? Let’s see…
It’s used all the time. Drugs, guns, porn etc etc.
… and it propels the might of all kinds of mafias.
(I’m against prohibition as you’ll have noticed. 
)
No evidence of that in relation to tobacco. The industry has used this argument against tax increases and packaging rules, but there hasn’t been a noticable rise in smuggling or illegal sales.
In fact, various forms of prohibition have been remarkably successful in reducing smoking.
When we first did a lockdown the govt banned cigarettes. Didn’t work a jot and there was a thriving black market selling illegal cigarettes for up to 10 times the price and people still bought.
That’s because it was done overnight. The NZ policy is for a phase out. The key is preventing young people from starting. Forty year olds who’ve smoked for twenty years are much more difficult to persuade.
Legal measures have been proven to work in the majority of countries in which they have been introduced.
In Canada, when we have simply increased the tax dramatically on cigarettes, we have repeatedly seen a wave of smuggling from the US. So I would not say there is no evidence of that for tobacco, it is really just a function of how much margin there needs to be to make it attractive for illegal sales. In the case of Canada, with an open-ish border with the US, that margin doesn’t really need to be that large.
If ever Sam Alladross came back as a squirrel… :0)
I don’t smoke but honestly high taxation on cigarettes is not going to help. Singapore tax heavily on cigarettes too and it is pretty expensive. But still consumption has not reduced significantly. That also means there is plenty of smuggling from neighboring countries who have remarkably cheap cigarettes. We are pretty good at catching them but there will always be a number who slipped through. I never understood the attraction of cigarettes but to me, I think you can raise double or triple the price but people who are addicted to it will find a way to buy it. A ban like NZ one probably is the most effective one, even if it is not 100% foolproof.
EDIT: To me the Singapore government, the way they impose high tax and all the measures like no open display of cigarettes etc are just PR policies to show they are doing something. But to me, its just like “fuck it, if we cannot stop them, we might as well make alot of tax money from them”
High cigarette prices combined with socialized medicine are basically a sin tax. You are going to be comparatively expensive to treat (relative to lifetime contributions), but the taxes you paid on the death sticks make it balance out.