All his gambles have failed, and Russia will be significantly worse off than the start of the war.
Reputation as top military power shattered
The economic gains over 20 years seem to have been pissed away
EU removing their dependence decreasing his influence
Ostracised by the international community
huge resistance in the Ukraine which means occupation/puppet government will never work long term.
Waning support from oligarchs who no longer can buy football clubs and go on their yachts.
Significant loss of life and military equipment.
civil unrest on home front
Don’t he me wrong he will probably gain territory. Perhaps all of Ukraine. But I doubt it’s in any way sustainable without effectively doing a carthage (metaphorically burning it down and salting the ground).
The ultimate outcome of this folly is that Russia will effectively bow down to China.
You are talking about costs. If Russia conquers Ukraine, they win long term if they can hold it. All they will have to do is starve economically for a decade or two, then sanctions will eventually ease due to Russia’s importance and size. So if Ukraine is conquered, then Ukraine loses and Russia wins. Silver linings is just silver linings imo.
The question is only if there will be a revolt or Palace Coup in Russia due to sanctions and horrors of war, or not. That may unsettle everything.
I wonder if Russia are expecting China to gobble up all the oil and gas that the rest of the world now wont take, at the same price the rest of the free world would have paid.
I think there is a reasonable likelyhood that Putin is pushed, he retires (due to ill health) or dies in the next 5-10 years.
In this sort of scenario the next leader will seek to garner support to solidify his position. The easiest would be to get the sanctions lifted, and prevent the ecconomic drain occupying Ukraine. It would instantly distance himself from Putin, make a lot of people rich, and happy.
That would be the sensible thing to do. Although a nationalist could replace Putin and start another war
That is what most people hope for, and the perhaps vain , hope behind the sanctions (that and to raise cost/calculus so that he doesn’t launch a new adventure as well as giving Ukraine a better hope for settlement).
But we don’t know. It’s too optimistic I think, to say it’s likely that he will be pushed out. But one can hope.
