This I agree. India has a tough choice to make, Either stay in QUAD and get involved with more disputes against China or align with BRICS totally. They are trying to do both and as far as I’m concerned, That’s likely to be very counterproductive in the long run. What India is trying to do is still remain as Non Aligned as possible in an increasingly polarized world. The Non Aligned policy might be redundant now but that’s the decision that India has taken on this.
As far as BRICS is concerned , This is where Russia does come in, It’s the peacemaker between India & China. If Russia keeps China in check, The Chinese have great economic power but if you are looking at military strength and the strength of the war machines , The Russians are still stronger than both India and China together. You would note that a stand-down between the two countries happened after Putin played the peacemaker a while back. Also, the foreign minister of China has paid a visit to India , So there’s some negotiation which is happening still.
China will continue to transgress borders and India have now shown that they are willing to retaliate in kind (in terms of border disputes). I believe that will remain the status quo for the foreseeable future. Both India and China imo are waiting to see which way this conflict goes before jumping in and joining a side.
I will have to look around - genuinely not sure that I have seen an effective summary. But if you recall that basing agreement for the 7th Fleet in the Maldives in October(?) 2020, that has been opposed by India for at least a decade, however was praised by New Delhi.
On your 2nd point, re-signalling around the Galwan clash, absolutely agree. I am not sure there was any other point to the post-hoc intel.
I think over the past month, we now know that is not true. We already knew Chinese air capacity is far more advanced than Russian, they have upgraded what they stole from the Russians significantly. The only area with a possible Russian advantage is nuclear capacity. However, the real question is will Russia do anything to complicate the relationship with Beijing on India’s behalf? I very much doubt it. Russia now needs China far more than vice-versa, and far more than it needs India.
But on my earlier points. This is exactly what I meant to @PaulRoJo . Most people not of Indian descent would not have heard of Galwan. But for a few days two years ago that was an existential threat for us. We were genuinely worried if a full scale war with China was about to spark off. Would Pakistan open up a new front?
Also to my earlier point of geopolitics being governed by self interest. If America didn’t have its own big issues with China would it ever indicate support for India or other Chinese neighbours? I highly doubt it.
I think there is a valid arguement that India should not damage its relationships, for a war it has little interest in. Where I more difficultly is whilst the war seems to have streghened ties amound europe and NATO, it perversly seems to have strengthed ties amoung BRIC.
For me I just want to see the war end. I belive sanctions are perhaps the best non-violent way to achieve this. India/China are activily providing a means to circumvent or deminish impact of sanctions. Thats frustrating.
I think its probably opened a few eyes to a new geopolitical reality.
I’m not really sure of that. You might well be true but China’s forces haven’t been war-tested. So much of China’s capabilities is under a veil. I’m not underestimating China, I’m just saying that there’s really no way to gauge China’s armed forces strength.
Also with respect to Russia, you are talking about urban warfare for which the Russians have clearly not prepared for. This was because of them understimating Ukraine rather than the strength of their armed forces.
I’m not a fan of comparing the size of dicks (which essentially is what happens when you compare armed force sizes, It’s meaningless. But a war between India and China in all probability will be a stalemate now.
I can assure you there is not a chance in hell of India and China forming any sort of alliance. The Indian armed forces and senior ministers regularly call China “enemy no. 1”. Countering China is India’s prime foreign policy objective.
Not really. The Chinese FM came bearing “gifts” and offers for dialogues etc. He was sent back with the message that there cannot be a dialogue unless the border standoff is resolved. India’s well used to China’s double speak. It’s in China’s interest to keep BRICS alive not India’s.
Galwan is an interesting counterpoint, because the US fleets didn’t do what they almost always have done. In umpteen years, we will probably get archival release from the Trump White House, but it is almost certain that Trump blocked that supportive movement while loudly offering his negotiating services as a mediator. Ships began the movement, but the carrier groups never moved.
As to self-interest, India is the world’s largest democracy, with an economy with enormous ties to the West already, and expanding them at the expense of China would be of mutual benefit. To my mind, China is very clearly the aggressor in the China-India conflict, the ‘natural’ alignment of the West is fairly obvious to me. For twenty years, Washington has been disregarding that because of Afghanistan and their bizarre relationship with the Pakistani ISI.
I’m wary of any alliance with US that will lead to India losing it’s sovereignty. I’m not a fan of the QUAD engagement in itself but the grounds for that were set when Obama/Bush Jr (forgot who) gave India the civil nuclear deal.
The only thing I’ll say is that India is more aligned with QUAD than it is with BRICS as of now. A significant climbdown from China along with actionable steps etc might change things though.
The Russian - Indian relationship has been in place for more than 50-60 years. It still continues even if this Russia isn’t the same USSR.
I think there is likely a good deal of dysfunction in China’s military, but a different type of dysfunction. But on the air forces, there is absolutely no doubt. The Chinese are flying the same air frames, but with electronics at least a generation more advanced.
Correction 60 years. Not 20. The US sent their warships to warn India off of taking action in the 1971 war. You can’t brush away so many mistakes and fuckups immediately. Trust needs to be earned like i said.
To be fair , without Biden we would probably still have Trump as President. He can be a bit cringeworthy and he is an awful speaker (the stammer doesn’t help) but his heart is in the right place.
Obama and Clinton were both adept in front of a crowd and pretty clear thinkers. As far as the GOP goes , isn’t it official policy to put an idiot in the White House so they are easier to outfox by Republicans in Congress ?
The only way around this is for countries to stop dependency on fossill fuels on a war footing. This would put a severe damper on despots like Putin and MBS.
Right now , its a choice between funding SAs war against Yemen and the other bullshit that they get upto compared to funding Putins war against Ukraine and the other bullshit he does.
I get where you are coming from. But like ive posted w.r.t energy security before , if the EU decides to buy fuel from Iran & OPEC , that will impact Indian fuel procurements. India has already suffered with increasing fuel prices etc because of the sanctions against Iran…
Sanctions are one thing but at this point of time , this is about India and its energy security. Yes , it might mean that the impact of the sanctions against Russia are diminished but the knockdown effect to that to the Indian economy and the hardships that would be faced by the common people here (increase in fuel prices leads to increase in everything) will have to be catered to.
(No body just a head).